Active Users:744 Time:20/02/2026 12:04:53 PM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
Re: Day 1 no-lynch is a lose-lose tactic for the Light. Fanatic-Templar Send a noteboard - 03/09/2009 04:57:54 AM
It's hard when you're anti-day 1 lynch like I am. (I'm not getting into another discussion on this, FT). I'd elaborate but I'd be opening my mouth like I told myself not to. :P


Day 1 No Lynch is a perfectly decent tactic, whenever your odds of lynching are roughly the same as random it makes sense, personally I'm against it today though.


You gain nothing, and lose something.


A day 1 no lynch has advantages, when you have no viable target to lynch, much like hypocopping it can hurt or help, depending on various factors. Personally, I'm against a no lynch today, that doesn't change the fact that sometimes it makes sense. The best thing you can get out of townie near-random lynch on day 1 is a vote record to use on the DFs later. I really can't think of a case where a random day 1 lynch benefited the town.

You do gain something too, the town has a cop, the cop can make an investigation, about 1 in 3 the cop IDs a DF, that alternate is he clears someone.


Which we only learn if the cop reveals himself. But never mind that, there is never real evidence for anybody on Day 1. Sometimes people think they are, but that can lead to cases like the lynching of Delmaradrid Saighan in whatever number game that was.

More often than not, players enter the second day with no better clues, and one less Lightsider. In case of a random lynch, at least there's a voting record to go by, and the reactions to it. And you're no worse off, because even if you do lynch a Lightsider, it doesn't actually reduce your number of chances at lynching a Darkfriend, as I demonstrated to Fox and Ravens last time.

Ultimately, it's the number of chances you get at lynching Darkfriends that counts, not the number of Lightsiders you have. If you only get two chances at finding the Darkfriend, it doesn't matter if you have five or five thousand Lightsiders - you still only get two chances. Heck, less might be better, because your probabilities are higher.
The first rule of being a ninja is "do no harm". Unless you intend to do harm, then do lots of harm.
~Master Splinter

Victorious in Bergioyn's legendary 'Reverse Mafia'. *MySmiley*
Reply to message
Mafia Day one Yunalesca - 30/08/2009 10:53:04 AM 3084 Views
Alright!! Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 10:58:50 AM 1697 Views
Vote tally Yunalesca - 30/08/2009 11:10:18 AM 1666 Views
Tee hee hee. Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 11:18:09 AM 1706 Views
OMGUS - Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* Isaac - 30/08/2009 03:03:21 PM 957 Views
Congrats on the acronym by the way *NM* Gher - 31/08/2009 07:08:15 PM 968 Views
Yeah, now that I think about it no one has used it yet Isaac - 01/09/2009 12:29:15 AM 1516 Views
All right - new usernames (table) Isaac - 30/08/2009 03:35:59 PM 1667 Views
Well, I'm not playing, but I'll be in next game. Hobo - 31/08/2009 02:37:22 AM 1605 Views
I'll follow Isaac's lead and claim my first name! *NM* mcrumiller - 31/08/2009 10:39:59 PM 1044 Views
And by that I mean this. *NM* Marshall - 31/08/2009 10:40:43 PM 963 Views
Got really confused for a second when I saw this post..... Kronin al'Sulc - 30/08/2009 04:34:49 PM 1608 Views
Alrighty!! Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 05:42:17 PM 1652 Views
Hypocopping always sounds like a solid plan to me. Kronin al'Sulc - 30/08/2009 06:28:51 PM 1686 Views
awh, thanks. your SN is cool too *NM* Yunalesca - 30/08/2009 06:30:54 PM 920 Views
You should have changed you name to.... Napoleon62 - 30/08/2009 06:52:46 PM 1724 Views
Haha Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 07:18:10 PM 1621 Views
Well, I confirm that, I'm an Aes Sedai Isaac - 30/08/2009 08:37:32 PM 1571 Views
What I really think we should do.... Napoleon62 - 30/08/2009 08:49:04 PM 1662 Views
Okay, that's a bad idea Isaac - 30/08/2009 08:52:42 PM 1601 Views
Yeah. I agree completely. Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 09:51:09 PM 1707 Views
Wait... Napoleon62 - 30/08/2009 10:04:34 PM 1651 Views
Haha. Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 10:09:53 PM 1570 Views
So this means you owe me money, right? Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 09:16:17 PM 1637 Views
Re: So this means you owe me money, right? Isaac - 30/08/2009 09:24:22 PM 1684 Views
Technically Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 09:27:29 PM 1651 Views
Re: Technically Isaac - 30/08/2009 09:42:16 PM 1660 Views
I'm guessing you meant to quote that. *NM* Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 09:52:21 PM 932 Views
yes, the new format is, well, new *NM* Isaac - 30/08/2009 09:54:36 PM 921 Views
See, now that we have others.... Napoleon62 - 30/08/2009 10:09:00 PM 1554 Views
Why are you so dead set on Ajahs anyway? Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 10:15:22 PM 1595 Views
Well.... Napoleon62 - 30/08/2009 10:17:08 PM 1524 Views
No way, me too. Kronin al'Sulc - 30/08/2009 11:15:01 PM 1573 Views
Well, I might as well say it Fox and Ravens - 31/08/2009 12:20:58 AM 1612 Views
So that's three Isaac - 31/08/2009 12:50:31 AM 1663 Views
Yeah, I think we ought to wait to reveal Ajahs Darth_Katie - 31/08/2009 12:54:41 AM 1652 Views
Maybe we should just lynch Isaac. Fanatic-Templar - 30/08/2009 07:32:50 PM 1702 Views
Just to address that Isaac - 30/08/2009 08:29:01 PM 1610 Views
Re: Just to address that Fanatic-Templar - 30/08/2009 08:57:17 PM 1541 Views
Re: Just to address that Isaac - 30/08/2009 09:01:20 PM 1571 Views
I'm going to facepalm . Fanatic-Templar - 30/08/2009 09:22:57 PM 1542 Views
LOL, you miss the point Isaac - 30/08/2009 09:27:31 PM 1639 Views
How does it do that? Fanatic-Templar - 30/08/2009 09:30:14 PM 1576 Views
Re: How does it do that? Isaac - 30/08/2009 10:02:33 PM 1718 Views
Re: How does it do that? Fanatic-Templar - 30/08/2009 10:42:39 PM 1511 Views
Probably better to just end this line of speculation now Isaac - 31/08/2009 03:02:12 AM 1671 Views
Do you mean that since you can't lie, saying you're for the Tower proves your goodness? Gher - 31/08/2009 01:44:01 AM 1484 Views
Or so you say. Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 09:53:09 PM 1733 Views
BTW Yunalesca - 30/08/2009 08:43:16 PM 1647 Views
I would suggest you do it anyway so they're at least saved on this site. *NM* Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 10:07:26 PM 990 Views
I just sent myself the saved copy I had. Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 10:17:46 PM 1620 Views
The saved copy of the rules we had every game, correct? *NM* Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 10:50:10 PM 915 Views
Nope, my personal role message. Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 10:54:33 PM 1415 Views
hello fistofpainx - 30/08/2009 09:17:20 PM 1598 Views
Re: hello Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 09:29:51 PM 1480 Views
Hahahaha! Fox and Ravens - 30/08/2009 10:12:09 PM 1487 Views
Game Rules Darth_Katie - 30/08/2009 11:45:00 PM 1649 Views
Thank you. That's good to have for this site. *NM* Fox and Ravens - 31/08/2009 12:19:53 AM 895 Views
Voting Record (Table) Darth_Katie - 31/08/2009 12:43:54 AM 1638 Views
Hey all. Gher - 31/08/2009 01:38:12 AM 1443 Views
watch the horizontal scroll guys! *NM* Yunalesca - 31/08/2009 10:25:11 AM 870 Views
Ok.... Napoleon62 - 31/08/2009 02:01:39 PM 1618 Views
Howdy White Flame of Tar Valon - 31/08/2009 04:42:47 PM 1526 Views
I still can't see the fuss over Isaac's post Fox and Ravens - 31/08/2009 05:25:14 PM 1615 Views
It was a misunderstanding, I think Darth_Katie - 31/08/2009 06:07:54 PM 1572 Views
^Read this^ Rather than the long discussion by Isaac and F-T *NM* Gher - 31/08/2009 07:07:41 PM 854 Views
Yep, that's pretty much it *NM* Fanatic-Templar - 31/08/2009 09:40:26 PM 816 Views
See, that looks pretty bad for you. Kronin al'Sulc - 31/08/2009 07:37:28 PM 1551 Views
I think I have to agree with that Isaac - 31/08/2009 08:49:45 PM 1529 Views
Re: I think I have to agree with that Isaac - 31/08/2009 08:50:00 PM 1648 Views
? Never double-posted that way before *NM* Isaac - 31/08/2009 09:15:21 PM 909 Views
Congratulations of discovering new and exciting ways for us to embarrass ourselves . *NM* Fanatic-Templar - 31/08/2009 09:42:49 PM 858 Views
Well, Fox and Ravens - 31/08/2009 09:00:47 PM 1488 Views
I agree here.... Napoleon62 - 31/08/2009 09:11:52 PM 1488 Views
He said it was suspicious saying "For the Tower" as opposed to "For the Light". Kronin al'Sulc - 31/08/2009 09:13:25 PM 1551 Views
It does look suspicous at this point.... Napoleon62 - 31/08/2009 09:54:56 PM 1558 Views
What do you mean? Darth_Katie - 31/08/2009 10:24:53 PM 1511 Views
Just.... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 01:37:26 AM 1534 Views
Okay, thanks. *NM* Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 01:42:25 AM 895 Views
I see what you mean but hardly agree with it Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 02:05:07 AM 1559 Views
It's the best we've got right now. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 02:44:20 AM 1489 Views
I've done so much today. Hours of engineering and chem...again. *NM* Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 02:57:08 AM 942 Views
im here again fistofpainx - 31/08/2009 04:48:28 PM 1640 Views
I'm here Stephen - 31/08/2009 06:16:40 PM 1477 Views
What's with everyone switching their usernames to their real names? lol *NM* Fox and Ravens - 31/08/2009 08:51:23 PM 905 Views
i didn't *NM* Yunalesca - 31/08/2009 09:10:23 PM 937 Views
Well, neither did I. But a lot of people here did. *NM* Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 02:01:06 AM 934 Views
Might as well move along Isaac - 01/09/2009 12:36:28 AM 1584 Views
Tower Alignment (Table) Isaac - 01/09/2009 12:45:59 AM 1543 Views
I am Aes Sedai. *NM* Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 02:04:10 PM 898 Views
I'm not an Aes Sedai *NM* Gher - 01/09/2009 07:47:43 PM 930 Views
I'm an AS *NM* Stephen - 01/09/2009 08:19:50 PM 883 Views
Okay. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 02:50:21 PM 1579 Views
Well, WF has had two days to reply, but hasn't even tried to defend himself. Kronin al'Sulc - 01/09/2009 03:24:11 PM 1631 Views
I don't intend to let him get out of it either. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 03:45:31 PM 1540 Views
hey there fistofpainx - 01/09/2009 06:54:20 PM 1520 Views
Re: I don't intend to let him get out of it either. White Flame of Tar Valon - 01/09/2009 07:23:00 PM 1488 Views
Well, it's easy to mount a defense after you've been told your error.... Kronin al'Sulc - 01/09/2009 07:26:29 PM 1553 Views
Re: Well, it's easy to mount a defense after you've been told your error.... White Flame of Tar Valon - 01/09/2009 07:36:31 PM 1486 Views
jk White Flame of Tar Valon - 01/09/2009 07:37:30 PM 1583 Views
Wait, now you're trying to throw the blame on ME? Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 07:45:26 PM 1560 Views
See my response to Gher aka I'm lazy. *NM* Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 08:07:35 PM 901 Views
Re: Wait, now you're trying to throw the blame on ME? White Flame of Tar Valon - 01/09/2009 09:29:46 PM 1500 Views
I don't want a repeat of Game 2. Gher - 01/09/2009 07:50:57 PM 1574 Views
This is a good point. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 08:06:24 PM 1596 Views
I'd like to add a few point to this. Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 09:21:27 PM 1594 Views
As soon as he starts getting accused... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 09:49:14 PM 1503 Views
What you did was suspicious Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 09:50:56 PM 1503 Views
I wish wotmania were still alive.... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 10:06:03 PM 1536 Views
Yeah, and we cut you slack because you were a newbie. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 10:10:34 PM 1542 Views
Oh, well... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 10:53:57 PM 1477 Views
Well...it doesn't change what your doing Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 11:02:48 PM 1500 Views
Yes, but I'm not doing anything wrong... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 11:24:33 PM 1563 Views
Not really watching your words does put suspicion on you Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 11:29:52 PM 1502 Views
Yes, but Darth_Katie - 02/09/2009 02:55:03 AM 1512 Views
Re: As soon as he starts getting accused... White Flame of Tar Valon - 01/09/2009 10:52:03 PM 1570 Views
to avoid loads of editing Yunalesca - 01/09/2009 09:22:36 PM 1632 Views
And Isaac is at L-5? I still have my vote up! *NM* Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 09:24:29 PM 830 Views
thanks for reminding me Yunalesca - 01/09/2009 09:29:56 PM 1519 Views
I'll add in my vote too, Vote: White Flame *NM* Isaac - 04/09/2009 12:15:50 PM 948 Views
All right, I think we need to throw in the towel Isaac - 01/09/2009 09:33:04 PM 1610 Views
I'll trust your judgement here... Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 09:35:46 PM 1651 Views
nuts Yunalesca - 01/09/2009 09:48:11 PM 1574 Views
Re: nuts Isaac - 01/09/2009 10:24:36 PM 1649 Views
*sigh* Yunalesca - 01/09/2009 10:27:57 PM 1535 Views
I still don't think we need to quit. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 10:31:30 PM 1592 Views
If that's what's up then let's keep going. Fox and Ravens - 01/09/2009 11:04:30 PM 1514 Views
Well, I've thrown in my two cents Isaac - 01/09/2009 11:16:23 PM 1603 Views
I don't understand, but.... Napoleon62 - 01/09/2009 09:52:33 PM 1450 Views
Wait a minute. Darth_Katie - 01/09/2009 10:17:08 PM 1545 Views
I don't care if you stop it or not but I'm in the next one *NM* Murtach74 - 01/09/2009 10:57:19 PM 871 Views
Right then Yunalesca - 01/09/2009 10:40:41 PM 1474 Views
Guess I'll vote for White Flame as well. Fanatic-Templar - 01/09/2009 11:46:00 PM 1661 Views
I'm torn. Darth_Katie - 02/09/2009 03:09:00 AM 1419 Views
It's Day 1. Fanatic-Templar - 02/09/2009 05:35:46 AM 1602 Views
I know, that's why I'm torn. Darth_Katie - 02/09/2009 08:22:36 PM 1545 Views
Well, it seems White Flame might be screwed. Kronin al'Sulc - 02/09/2009 05:53:59 AM 1468 Views
Great. Everybody's going to be looking at me tomorrow if WF turns out to be a DF Fox and Ravens - 02/09/2009 07:21:56 AM 1476 Views
Re: Great. Everybody's going to be looking at me tomorrow if WF turns out to be a DF White Flame of Tar Valon - 02/09/2009 06:58:22 PM 1574 Views
I think you should probably claim. Darth_Katie - 02/09/2009 08:24:02 PM 1463 Views
I would add my 2 cents here but I'm telling myself to stay out of it. Fox and Ravens - 02/09/2009 09:42:48 PM 1464 Views
Re: I would add my 2 cents here but I'm telling myself to stay out of it. Isaac - 02/09/2009 11:08:44 PM 1474 Views
Day 1 no-lynch is a lose-lose tactic for the Light. Fanatic-Templar - 03/09/2009 03:24:43 AM 1545 Views
Re: Day 1 no-lynch is a lose-lose tactic for the Light. Isaac - 03/09/2009 03:59:05 AM 1593 Views
Re: Day 1 no-lynch is a lose-lose tactic for the Light. Fanatic-Templar - 03/09/2009 04:57:54 AM 1571 Views
Who are your warders? Isaac - 02/09/2009 11:10:28 PM 1544 Views
Do we want him naming names? Gher - 02/09/2009 11:28:54 PM 1470 Views
Not much choice really Isaac - 03/09/2009 12:01:11 AM 1541 Views
My claim White Flame of Tar Valon - 03/09/2009 05:04:26 PM 1604 Views
Ok.... Napoleon62 - 03/09/2009 05:08:25 PM 1421 Views
It doesn't sound that outlandish to me. Darth_Katie - 03/09/2009 07:11:06 PM 1490 Views
Not quite to the level of outlandish, no.... Napoleon62 - 03/09/2009 07:31:49 PM 1554 Views
I don't know. Darth_Katie - 03/09/2009 08:02:45 PM 1620 Views
Nor I, but we now have some definite leads to work with Isaac - 04/09/2009 05:13:18 AM 1540 Views
I'm not a warder Fox and Ravens - 04/09/2009 01:01:27 PM 1481 Views
Re: I'm not a warder Isaac - 04/09/2009 05:03:10 PM 1452 Views
Well, don't worry about me voting for WF Fox and Ravens - 04/09/2009 06:07:04 PM 1434 Views
That's an excellent point, actually. Darth_Katie - 04/09/2009 07:57:20 PM 1448 Views
I am not Aes Sedai, nor Warder. Kronin al'Sulc - 05/09/2009 12:26:01 AM 1440 Views
All right, the advised day 1 strategy Isaac - 03/09/2009 01:18:09 AM 1566 Views
Sounds Good to Me Darth_Katie - 03/09/2009 02:14:41 AM 1554 Views
Re: All right, the advised day 1 strategy Fanatic-Templar - 03/09/2009 03:30:27 AM 1551 Views
the situation so far Yunalesca - 04/09/2009 06:02:36 PM 1498 Views
Can you keep some kind of constant form for the vote counts? Fox and Ravens - 04/09/2009 06:11:53 PM 1504 Views
sorry Yunalesca - 04/09/2009 06:26:17 PM 1552 Views
Speaking of votes Isaac - 04/09/2009 07:39:17 PM 1554 Views
RBIRL... Napoleon62 - 04/09/2009 08:00:50 PM 1445 Views
my non voting reason fistofpainx - 04/09/2009 11:32:46 PM 1481 Views
Not really any reason. Fox and Ravens - 05/09/2009 08:49:00 AM 1470 Views
VOTE: White Flame Stephen - 05/09/2009 01:48:23 AM 1446 Views
Alright Gher - 05/09/2009 05:09:48 AM 1610 Views
Not really any reason Fox and Ravens - 05/09/2009 08:47:03 AM 1540 Views
Crap. Ignore this. Should have been a reply to Isaac. Fox and Ravens - 05/09/2009 08:48:10 AM 1456 Views
Twilight Yunalesca - 05/09/2009 10:11:54 AM 1590 Views
Re: Twilight White Flame of Tar Valon - 06/09/2009 05:13:46 AM 1517 Views
night has fallen. Yunalesca - 05/09/2009 10:27:26 AM 1544 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes