Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
Isaac Send a noteboard - 02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
You're not seeing the odds, I think, and that causes confusion. I view FT at 50/50, coinflip, like I said. Everyone else is more like 30-70, specifically 14-1 divding the total number of baddies, which is probably four. 4/13 is 30%, 5 out of 13 is 38%, but I'd think if we had 5 then the miller claim is unlikely, since the miller role is essentially there to weaken the town, which would be weird if we had a 5 man DF faction or 4 Dfs and a SK, or 2 DFs factions, a cult, etc. Of course, this all relies on two assumptions, first that Gher generated a fair game (highly likely but if not there's nothing we can do so it's not worht contemplating) and second that nothing incredibly bizarre is part of the setup (which is also not worth contemplating at this stage since we can't expect our guesswork there to be very fruitful) which is why I'd guess 4 at this stage, giving me 30%.
So targeting FT is really just statistics, unable to decide if he's DF or town, considering both options equal, puts him at 50%. I consider anyone who is above the estimated norm (in this case 30%) to be a legtiimate candidate for lynching. I hope that clarifies things.
I do want to emphasize I've no objection to people pursuing other inquiries, I encourage, but this is where my crosshairs are right now so while I'll be glad to debate the merits of another candidate I myself do not plan to go hunting for any at this time. Give me a better option and I'll vote accordingly.
Now, there are some add-ons that further elevate FT, not in terms of guilt but in terms of acceptability as a lynchee. We of course, can not determine his guilt without kjilling him so as is often the case we don't just want a high-prob DF but a lynch which if flawed (dead townie) has the minimum fallout or otherwise profits us. i.e. two equally dubious claims, one as vanilla and one as a useful role, you lynch the vanilla because if you're wrong there is less damage, and as subsequent RCs come in you tend to be in a better position to evaluate the probability of role claim anyway.
Let us assume FT is not a DF, that he is a miller, which again I place at 50%
Positives of lynching him - if claim true
Confirms we have a cop
Removes a role no more valuable and arguably much less valuable than a vanilla
Discourages future use of miller claims and likely discourages mods from inserting self-aware millers
Confirms the existence of a miller thus indicating a game balance that is protown
Prevents risk of exposure of roles by defensive RC or let the DFs narrow it down.
Likely highlights some players who were supporting him as pro-town.
Gives us a vote record which is not based off a near-random vote, which is more likely to be useful.
Negatives of lynching FT - if claim true
Essentially circumvents furthering questioning today, protecting roles but also protecting DFs
Removes one of the better players from circulation.
Anyone is welcome to add on to those, but the ones listed seem fairly indisputeable, again, those are if FT is innocent, obviously the advantage if he is not is a dead DF/SK/etc with possible indicators of alliances to other players.
So targeting FT is really just statistics, unable to decide if he's DF or town, considering both options equal, puts him at 50%. I consider anyone who is above the estimated norm (in this case 30%) to be a legtiimate candidate for lynching. I hope that clarifies things.
I do want to emphasize I've no objection to people pursuing other inquiries, I encourage, but this is where my crosshairs are right now so while I'll be glad to debate the merits of another candidate I myself do not plan to go hunting for any at this time. Give me a better option and I'll vote accordingly.
Now, there are some add-ons that further elevate FT, not in terms of guilt but in terms of acceptability as a lynchee. We of course, can not determine his guilt without kjilling him so as is often the case we don't just want a high-prob DF but a lynch which if flawed (dead townie) has the minimum fallout or otherwise profits us. i.e. two equally dubious claims, one as vanilla and one as a useful role, you lynch the vanilla because if you're wrong there is less damage, and as subsequent RCs come in you tend to be in a better position to evaluate the probability of role claim anyway.
Let us assume FT is not a DF, that he is a miller, which again I place at 50%
Positives of lynching him - if claim true
Confirms we have a cop
Removes a role no more valuable and arguably much less valuable than a vanilla
Discourages future use of miller claims and likely discourages mods from inserting self-aware millers
Confirms the existence of a miller thus indicating a game balance that is protown
Prevents risk of exposure of roles by defensive RC or let the DFs narrow it down.
Likely highlights some players who were supporting him as pro-town.
Gives us a vote record which is not based off a near-random vote, which is more likely to be useful.
Negatives of lynching FT - if claim true
Essentially circumvents furthering questioning today, protecting roles but also protecting DFs
Removes one of the better players from circulation.
Anyone is welcome to add on to those, but the ones listed seem fairly indisputeable, again, those are if FT is innocent, obviously the advantage if he is not is a dead DF/SK/etc with possible indicators of alliances to other players.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended.
27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM
- 3043 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message.
27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM
- 1199 Views
You made it up
27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM
- 1153 Views
Hmm ...
27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM
- 1238 Views
Ha.
28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM
- 1090 Views
It sounds like a real word.
28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM
- 1173 Views
You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system
28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM
- 1118 Views
Well, lacking anything else...
28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM
- 1248 Views
I haven't the faintest idea what they mean.
29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM
- 1193 Views
Not really
29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM
- 1234 Views
Let's try something
29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM
- 1149 Views
alrighty then
29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM
- 1217 Views
That's sufficient, thanks
29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM
- 1067 Views
Yea, my message has all that.
29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM
- 1222 Views
Probably
29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM
- 1119 Views
Re: Probably
29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM
- 1085 Views
True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in
29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM
- 1161 Views
I've got MPD
29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM
- 1182 Views
Surprise, surprise: I do too.
29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM
- 1138 Views
Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM*
29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM
- 733 Views
I have MPD and number under 14. *NM*
29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM
- 799 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM
- 1138 Views
Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM
- 1121 Views
High priests cannot be sacrificed!
30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM
- 1082 Views
Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices
30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM
- 1163 Views
I want to roleclaim.
30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM
- 1153 Views
That is, well, surprising
30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM
- 1219 Views
Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now.
30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM
- 1098 Views
Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM*
30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM
- 676 Views
Well, I'm back...
31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM
- 1163 Views
Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!?
31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM
- 1168 Views
Oh, and I had my first real tournament today...
31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM
- 1170 Views
Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much.
31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM
- 1124 Views
I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers.
31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM
- 1110 Views
But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played?
31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM
- 1140 Views
And on a third hand...
31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM
- 1226 Views
So... back to neutral. *NM*
31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM
- 628 Views
You don't find that statement dubious?
31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM
- 1131 Views
I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend...
31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM
- 1103 Views
Everyone! Deep breaths...
31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM
- 1118 Views
That's a pretty big thing to forget though.
01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM
- 1092 Views
Who said anything about forgetting?
01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM
- 1151 Views
It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM*
01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM
- 810 Views
No...
01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM
- 1151 Views
Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about
01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM
- 1149 Views
I agree with beet here.
01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM
- 1105 Views
Offer alternatives then
01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM
- 1169 Views
I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games
01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM
- 1148 Views
I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM
- 1190 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM
- 1180 Views
Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on...
31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM
- 1041 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM
- 1104 Views
Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper.
31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM
- 1120 Views
What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers.
01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM
- 1152 Views
Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor.
01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM
- 1145 Views
We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF.
31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM
- 1140 Views
Alright, from my reading,
31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM
- 1140 Views
RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance)
01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM
- 1231 Views
I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is
01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM
- 1122 Views
You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be.
01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM
- 1077 Views
I think the rationale was this:
01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM
- 1055 Views
Beg Pardon?
01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM
- 1118 Views
It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM
- 706 Views
Coward. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM
- 738 Views
Er... what just happened, here? *NM*
02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM
- 774 Views
I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult.
02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM
- 1112 Views
There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM
- 1112 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM
- 1135 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM
- 1203 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM
- 1168 Views
Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM
- 1098 Views
Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM
- 1132 Views
Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM
- 1272 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM
- 1059 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM*
01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM
- 643 Views
Message get eaten? *NM*
01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM
- 675 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember...
02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM
- 1133 Views
Right, so: Defending Myself
01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM
- 1231 Views
Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's
02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM
- 1088 Views
Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
- 1253 Views
Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM
- 1050 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM
- 1087 Views
Re: The random thing
02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM
- 1276 Views
Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM
- 1226 Views
Re: Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 09:23:43 PM
- 1112 Views
Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry.
02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM
- 1163 Views
I never tried to stop any discussion
02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM
- 1149 Views
Like I said, I don't find it very suspicious, but it was just something I had seen.
02/02/2010 11:14:53 PM
- 1145 Views
Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T
02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM
- 1130 Views
That's pretty bold claim of intention.
02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM
- 1114 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM
- 1194 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM
- 1239 Views
Speaking of time...
03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM
- 1187 Views
Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM*
03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM
- 756 Views
Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt.
03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM
- 1199 Views
Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything
03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM
- 1060 Views
Hahaha. well, it was!
04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM
- 1081 Views
"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM*
04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM
- 684 Views
Everybody knows my perspective on no lynches...or at least I suspect they do. *NM*
04/02/2010 04:09:17 AM
- 759 Views
So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why?
04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM
- 1186 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM
- 1151 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM
- 1040 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all
04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM
- 1128 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF.
04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM
- 1086 Views
Fair enough...
04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM
- 1092 Views
I agree with D_K actually
04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM
- 1175 Views
You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF?
04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM
- 1061 Views
If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less
04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM
- 1146 Views
I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light...
04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM
- 1161 Views
You know, you're still at L-3.
04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM
- 1316 Views
L-2, as it were.
04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM
- 1103 Views
Just had to make me incorrect?
04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM
- 1066 Views
I couldn't resist. *NM*
05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM
- 696 Views
05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM
- 1171 Views
Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around .
05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM
- 1083 Views
05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM
- 1150 Views
I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly.
05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM
- 1144 Views