You find it surprising that someone you know has extensive training as a mathemetician tends to break things down as stats? I mean, it's not like I don't do this every game, sometimes I give the detailed breakdown, sometimes I just offer the answer, since 50/50 is derived just from pointing out that in a solid WIFOM both options are equally likely, there wasn't much to derive and solve for.



Well, thing is, if you think everyone is 50/50, it's not 'we both have our own equally correct way of looking at things' cse, you're simply wrong. We have never had a game where the anti-town component has been anywhere near 50%, I tihk the highest was 40% in yuna's, 10 players, 3 DFs and one SK, 4/10, last game it was 4/15, normally it's around 25-33%. If you mean to say 'everyone has an equal chance of being guilty' well that's true, they have an equal chance, and it's probably 30% in this game. While we never really do it specifically this way, since hunch, vibe and intuition play such a role but can not be easily expressed mathematically, ultimately, barring ulterior motives, people vote for the person they think has the highest probability of being a DF.



Everyone seems to agree FT is suspicious, and many seem to think he should be the eventual lynchee barring the emergence of a better candidate, how then am I more suspicious for having also stated this?