... Egwene not recognizing the dying man doesn't necessarily mean it's not Rand as he originally looked, but I'd bet against it simply because she was able to identify Rand by name in all other Dreams about him. I can't think of any other Dream of hers in which she didn't identify the subject of the Dream by name, but the subject could be Rand, or any of the 3 ta'veren for that matter.

It's not that I'm set on Rand having an appearance change. It's just that I've given a lot of thought over the years to all of the various prophecies, visions, etc. related (or maybe related) to Rand and the end of the series, and consequently the appearance-change idea has had a long time to percolate. I'm open to changing my mind on the idea, it's just unlikely to happen instantaneously (unless I read something relevant in the books, of course). You're theory has given me a lot more to think about, though, and that's always good.

One problem that occurs to me about your theory is ... if you're right, then sometime after Rand lives again, he will end up spilling his blood at Shayol Ghul, in the Pit of Doom, to save mankind, according to the K-cycle prophecy. But, he won't actually die again (presumably), which means everyone's assumption that the Dragon Reborn will die at SG to save mankind is wrong. That just doesn't seem right, to me. I understand why you think that though, as you explained in your theory, and I don't have a good counter-explanation at this point. That's another issue I struggle with myself - when Rand dies. Is it after the Battle of Caemlyn, or at SG? Solid arguments can be made for both cases, I think.

BTW, I completely agree with you that "2 women with Rand + Callandor" is a red herring.

I also agree that Rand faking his death cannot satisfy the "to live you must die" info from the Aelfinn. Rand actually has to die, not just appear to die.