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Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 02/11/2012 09:56:50 PM
My main issue with Linda's list is the Forsaken occupy so many Levels 16-21 which seems very unlikley to me. IMO the Forsaken level Channelers all occupy Levels 20-21 and that these levels would occupy the top 85% of Strength/Effectiveness. Egwene level at 19 and Cadsuane 18 etc.... Daigian IMO needs to be higher on the scale to be even remotely close to RJs statement that AS are 62.5% or above Strength. Even if you assume Daigian and some of the other very weak AS are below that due to the lowering standards of the Tower they are still far too low on any scale. At the worst she needs to be around a 6-7 on your list to make it reasonable that the Bell Curve distribution won't make her a true outlier, which we know can't be the case or she would not have be anywhere close to being AS.


I like the methodology you've applied, but I feel like having a Forsaken level channeler being that much weaker than the top (30%+) ... Moghedien and Mesaana would never have stood a chance as top tier Forsaken, and even Semirhage would be on the cusp due to her lower power level and never would have made it into the "elite top 6". We know they were willing to destroy each other during the WoP so the least skilled and the least powerful would have ended up either dead or as part of one of the major Forsaken's "staff". Why would Semirhage, one of the very top in the Forsaken hierarchy, create an alliance with a woman so much weaker who was also lower than her on the hierarchy AND not just make her a minion? Mesaana at 25% or more weaker than Lanfear, and as a less than skilled (by Forsaken standards) would never have risen so high. During the WoP she would have been a nice 2nd in command to Semirhage if she was that much weaker, but no way would she "match up closely" as she herself thinks ... even if that is delusional, she's not stupid enough to think she could take on a more skilled and significantly stronger opponent and hope to survive.

Even Moiraine's level has experienced no issues with any given weave in terms of strength. Which again makes me think of them as significantly powerful, at the least I think they are the mid-way point of maximum strength, which would mean 50% of all women can perform ANY weave from the AoL with her own natural strength ... Which seems reasonable to me.

I have played with a 0-441 point strength scale over time and then applied "% of maximum" which places the Forsaken on levels 20-21 and I feel comfortable with how each character's power level maps to the series.

On my scale Lanfear can channel 441 "units" of saidar, Graendal at 98% can channel 432, Nynaeve 423, Egwene 352, Cadsuane 330, Moiraine 220, Vandene/Adeleas 106 and Daigian 71 ... Morgase would be 4 "units" ... Rand, assuming from RJs comments that there are "several levels of strength men have on top of women", could channel 625 "units" of saidin, but still have an effective strength that is equal to Lanfear. So a woman like Egwene is probably like 55% of Rand's RAW strength, but in reality is about 80% as effective as he (or Lanfear) is, when both are at full potential and assuming equal training.

Lanfear would be significantly stronger than Egwene here, she would equal Egwene paired with a weaker Sister like Siuan at her new strength 90ish. To face a Male Forsaken Egwene would indeed have to link with both Romanda and Lelaine to have any chance against a male such as Rand ... linking bonuses aside they'd only have about a 15% strength advantage on my scale.


Yeah, I think you're right. It doesn't make sense for 2% of all channellers to be above 20. Even in the Age of Legends that would have been far too common. I played around with the character placements on this 21-level scale and I put Moghedian on level 19 which puts her at 89% of Lanfear which I think is still too far apart.

Would you still have your 441-scale somewhere? I would be interested in incorporating your scale into my spreadsheet.


The Forsaken are the hardest because we have the most vague idea of their power distribution, but I do have my chart somewhere ... I'll see if I can find it and would be happy to email it to you if the google doc link doesn't work ... there are a lot of arbitrary placements in the lower levels of the list because I just spread out some of the various AS level women without any real reference beyond "they deferred to such and so" ... it's a bit of a messy spreadsheet as I was just playing around with it :)

I also made some hefty assumptions so please know I view little of this is beyond me messing with numbers to see could 4 women hold Rand but not Logain type of stuff
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
Darius experiment
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Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 31/10/2012 11:30:42 AM 1388 Views
Who said RJ created a 100 point scale? I always assumed we did to make this easier to follow - 31/10/2012 02:22:51 PM 755 Views
One more point here - 31/10/2012 03:02:34 PM 651 Views
I've think I've finally done it. I've solved the entire Curve. Daigian is the key... - 01/11/2012 09:20:57 AM 869 Views
Did some playing with your numbers to make this work better - 01/11/2012 02:13:00 PM 818 Views
The Mean and SD are set by Daigian's position. Your options are therefore not possible... - 02/11/2012 07:49:24 AM 748 Views
Yet you have many more SD between the Mean and Lanfear than you do Morgase and the Mean - 02/11/2012 02:39:51 PM 641 Views
I absolutely agree. The lower side of the curve MUST be intersected by zero after 1 SD... - 02/11/2012 03:03:52 PM 547 Views
I am not convinced Moiraine is the Mean. Merely 50% of Lanfear - 02/11/2012 04:23:57 PM 681 Views
But on a Bell Curve the Mean IS 50% of Lanfear. You've just disproven your own contention. - 02/11/2012 04:40:31 PM 618 Views
OMG no it is NOT! - 02/11/2012 05:16:36 PM 570 Views
I agree with that. But please honestly look at the math I presented. It disproves the Bell Curve. - 02/11/2012 05:24:41 PM 842 Views
It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved. - 02/11/2012 06:07:19 PM 664 Views
Confusing post... - 02/11/2012 06:30:40 PM 705 Views
Dreadlord is essentially describing a lognormal distribution - 02/11/2012 07:21:39 PM 617 Views
If you choose to ignore the author go right ahead. I just think you are wrong - 02/11/2012 09:05:14 PM 740 Views
A non-linear 21 point scale is fine... - 02/11/2012 11:02:48 PM 771 Views
I've been operating off of the scale I described for years - 02/11/2012 11:25:27 PM 645 Views
Re: It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved. - 02/11/2012 07:11:57 PM 645 Views
Not true - 02/11/2012 08:52:42 PM 688 Views
Re: Not true - 03/11/2012 09:19:11 AM 660 Views
Read my other posts - 03/11/2012 04:19:15 PM 522 Views
Not quite - 03/11/2012 08:02:05 AM 651 Views
I think it's about skill not strength - 03/11/2012 04:38:07 PM 545 Views
I think the number is about 10 - 03/11/2012 08:42:08 AM 709 Views
Nope - 03/11/2012 04:14:45 PM 656 Views
Re: Nope - 03/11/2012 04:39:07 PM 683 Views
Verin and Graendal each have angreal of unkown strength - 03/11/2012 06:15:49 PM 558 Views
Re: Verin and Graendal each have angreal of unkown strength - 03/11/2012 10:15:10 PM 680 Views
*shrugs* - 03/11/2012 10:25:18 PM 585 Views
Re: *shrugs* - 04/11/2012 07:12:21 AM 782 Views
You have 4 markers and you should use them all - 10/11/2012 03:08:37 PM 501 Views
Indeed - 10/11/2012 03:59:51 PM 656 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 01/11/2012 06:23:07 PM 682 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 01/11/2012 09:48:04 PM 663 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 02/11/2012 09:02:58 PM 688 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 02/11/2012 09:56:50 PM 769 Views
I'll have to disagree with much of this - 03/11/2012 07:46:31 AM 712 Views
Why do you always think Strength is the point - 03/11/2012 04:35:26 PM 487 Views
I don't - I merely appreciate it as a factor - 03/11/2012 04:48:24 PM 578 Views
0 Evidence? Cyndane v. Alivia is plenty of evidence EDIT with exact quote - 03/11/2012 06:17:39 PM 587 Views
One other thing you have forgotten about - 03/11/2012 10:13:09 PM 587 Views
Your agenda blinds you to logic yet again...As I'll simply demonstrate with your example here... - 03/11/2012 11:08:13 PM 656 Views
Nope, the only experience she has in reality is against Rand - 03/11/2012 11:09:54 PM 551 Views
Nonsense. - 03/11/2012 11:11:05 PM 585 Views
Believe as you will - 03/11/2012 11:26:50 PM 745 Views
That's a classic. - 04/11/2012 12:06:13 AM 615 Views
You misquote on a regular basis and have no grasp of the timeline in the series - 04/11/2012 01:36:37 AM 481 Views
Hmm... - 04/11/2012 07:08:04 AM 807 Views
stop getting all indignant ... I'm really not trying to be nasty to you - 04/11/2012 04:20:06 PM 623 Views

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