The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders.
Tom Send a noteboard - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.
ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius
Ummaka qinnassa nīk!
*MySmiley*
ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius
Ummaka qinnassa nīk!
*MySmiley*
This message last edited by Tom on 23/11/2010 at 07:05:14 PM
North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it?
23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM
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"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?"
23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM
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Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb.
23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM
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The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless.
23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM
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yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china
*NM*
23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM
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"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives.
23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM
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Honestly, it COULD go either way.
23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM
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The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders.
23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM
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I don't believe in striking first but, frankly, it's long been a moot point.
23/11/2010 05:09:49 PM
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You know I like to sleep in, remember?
23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM
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Agreed
23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM
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I worry North Korea long ago decided to solve domestic problems with international aggression.
23/11/2010 02:26:36 PM
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That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM
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Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM
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Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers
23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM
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The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire...
25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM
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I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM
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Re: I actually had no clue.
23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM
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Careful; qualify all your generalizations and people (especially him) will think you're me.
25/11/2010 02:03:42 PM
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Nuke the fuckers and be done with it. And let China know it's their fault. *NM*
23/11/2010 02:58:56 PM
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you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM*
23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM
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OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article.
23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM
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Fact checking:
23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM
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The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better.
23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM
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Well
23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM
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Same reason we don't give all our allies (especially neighbors) our best hardware.
23/11/2010 07:43:54 PM
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Actually, no, it looks like The Guardian is just schizoid on this subject.
23/11/2010 08:16:45 PM
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This has been coming for a while but I hoped the West would step up and help out. *NM*
23/11/2010 08:31:40 PM
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There's not going to be any all-out conflict
24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM
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They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway.
24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM
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No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time.
24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM
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That is the crux of it, I suppose.
24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM
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~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so.
24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM
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Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago.
25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM
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