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They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. Joel Send a noteboard - 24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM
The underlying reality on the peninsula is that war makes no sense. Both sides know it beyond dispute. Here’s what happens if war breaks out: half of South Korea’s population is within 50 miles of North Korea’s arsenal of almost 12,000 artillery guns and rockets. Those weapons are more than sufficient to destroy much of what South Korea has created in over half a century. As for North Korea, a U.S. air and missile attack would destroy what’s left of that country and leave its dictatorship in want of a home. Thus, war would destroy both sides, and neither side can afford war.

American political leaders (not to mention more than a few posters here) wanting to look tough will undoubtedly propose some U.S. military actions, but fortunately for them, they won't get their way. Any game of chicken will have to be up to our South Korean allies. It's South Korea's decision whether there will be an all out conflict, and they do not want an all-out conflict.

Beyond question, Pyongyang knows all this. So when they ratchet up the danger level, they’re doing it for some other reason. Explanation No. 1 is that the shooting is part of Pyongyang’s succession problems. The Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il is in poor health and fading. It appears that he has jumped over his second son and intends to empower his third son instead. This third son, Kim Jong-Un, has some exalted military title and he may be ordering the high-wire military actions to show how tough he is.

Explanation No. 2. Asia experts think that Pyongyang is taking these actions as the only way it knows of getting our full attention. And what they think Pyongyang wants is to resume the usual negotiations—our concerns regarding their nuclear program and their desires to have more economic assistance. In fact, that has been the message the North Koreans have provided quietly during several recent visits by private American groups. From their point of view and from their experiences, Washington pays attention to them only when the warning flags go up.

Twice this week alone; I'd say the "danger level" is pretty high for those being murdered. As I noted above, another Guardian article contends that the South Korean ship was destroyed because of Explanation No. 1. I shudder to think how the world would respond if Obama had felt the need to destroy a few vessels in the Mexican Navy before his inauguration were secure.

As for explanation number two, in the wake of the their earlier act of war this week and the revelation of a second nuclear weapons facility they'd never mentioned before South Korea has publicly stated interest in the return of US nuclear missiles, so I'd say they have our attention. They're getting monetary and humanitarian aid from South Korea and developing the ability to nuke targets on the other side of the Pacific with impunity; what further concessions do you think we should allow them to extort? How 'bout Explanation #3: After years of continuous famine and an apparently very poor harvest due to this years weather, North Korea has reached the point it can no longer survive on what those held at gunpoint give them, as evidenced by the estimated 10,000 refugees who've fled to the South this year. Instead they've decided that nuclear weapons and neighbors who refuse to fight even when their citizens are being killed mean they can and must take what they need.

A game of chicken ends when one side of the other blinks. When people are dying that's not what's going on: This is a case of "how many of your people will you let them kill before you do more than politely ask them to stop?" The whole business of not resisting North Korean aggression because they might attack South Korea was absurd enough when it was obvious they'd do that anyway sooner or later, but now that they're actually doing so it's truly incomprehensible. We can't make them stop what they're doing because it would force them to do what they're doing? :confused:

For now, yes, South Korea will call the ball. Until/unless China has North Korea nuke Tokyo or L.A. on their behalf that will remain so, but waiting until then, tolerating multiple lethal acts of war within the same WEEK simply because we don't want people killed by acts of war seems positively insane to me. You don't want war, fine, but it's not me you have to convince, it's the people shooting at you.
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This message last edited by Joel on 24/11/2010 at 01:25:32 AM
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North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM 1291 Views
"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?" - 23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM 1084 Views
Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb. - 23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM 927 Views
The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless. - 23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM 850 Views
yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM 484 Views
"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives. - 23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM 985 Views
Honestly, it COULD go either way. - 23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM 1126 Views
China's relations with North Korea are also worsening, though. - 25/11/2010 05:48:01 PM 1262 Views
What Tom said. - 23/11/2010 05:15:31 PM 932 Views
I figured someone else would post it *NM* - 23/11/2010 11:16:44 AM 424 Views
You know I like to sleep in, remember? - 23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM 926 Views
Agreed - 23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM 1033 Views
I think most Americans are asleep until the sun rises here - 23/11/2010 11:32:28 AM 938 Views
That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM 925 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM 973 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM 857 Views
The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire... - 25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM 1103 Views
you know what they say - 25/11/2010 10:34:30 AM 953 Views
Never send an Englishman to do a man's work? - 25/11/2010 09:06:22 PM 956 Views
I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM 933 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM 800 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM 906 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM 877 Views
Honestly, - 23/11/2010 02:36:13 PM 844 Views
you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM 452 Views
I had an inkling. *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:37:37 PM 487 Views
OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article. - 23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM 1025 Views
Fact checking: - 23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM 928 Views
The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better. - 23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM 858 Views
my two bits - 23/11/2010 10:51:51 PM 985 Views
I'm glad your ex wasn't there in 1970 then. - 24/11/2010 01:10:02 AM 956 Views
Well - 23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM 966 Views
There's not going to be any all-out conflict - 24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM 1082 Views
They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. - 24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM 1039 Views
No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time. - 24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM 909 Views
That is the crux of it, I suppose. - 24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM 989 Views
~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so. - 24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM 964 Views
Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago. - 25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM 1567 Views
They won't be the last. - 02/12/2010 12:55:20 AM 1138 Views
Re: North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 24/11/2010 01:50:11 AM 873 Views

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