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The problem with predictions that come true Vivien Send a noteboard - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM
Is that those are the only ones you remember. You do not remember all the other predictions you've made (or others have made) that do not come true. Survivorship bias, to put it mildly. It's only the guesses that hit the target that anyone makes note of. It is fun though to notice predictions after the fact.

I was despondent that Hitchens died, then Cesaria Evora, then Vaclav Havel. I posted on Facebook yesterday and said that God needed to kill a dictator to maintain the balance in the world. I named Khamenei, Kim Jong-il and Chavez.

Now, about 24 hours later, Kim Jong-il is dead.

The last time I said someone "needed to die" was with John Paul II, whom I did not like (I loved Paul VI and JP I). He died within the week, causing the people I was working with at the time to call me the "angel of death".

I have to say that the timing is once again uncanny...

Anyway, let's hope God has mercy on him, because he caused enough Hell for his people here on earth.
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Kim Jong-il is dead. Would you become a fervent believer? Tom - 19/12/2011 03:37:28 AM 1634 Views
If I was a Christian, I'd pray that he would burn forever in hell. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 03:47:52 AM 1048 Views
See, I can't be an atheist. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:53:55 AM 1008 Views
I agree about atheism LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:19:02 AM 864 Views
It's an approximation. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:40:05 PM 893 Views
no, I'm not saying that the sheer number of people alone is sufficient LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 10:13:09 PM 787 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 04:25:06 AM 866 Views
No, Pascal's Wager is stupid. Tim - 19/12/2011 03:09:42 PM 878 Views
You obviously misread my comments or ignored them. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:39:59 PM 889 Views
You're answering a different point to the one I was addressing. Tim - 19/12/2011 04:01:54 PM 810 Views
For atheism to be a tenable position, one must assume that millions lie about their experiences. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:11:53 AM 888 Views
Look, doesn't this go against your most sacred principle? jh - 20/12/2011 06:43:27 AM 858 Views
I'm pretty sure he's not saying it's undeniable proof. LadyLorraine - 20/12/2011 09:19:44 AM 812 Views
No, it doesn't. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:30:55 PM 770 Views
Re: No, it doesn't. jh - 20/12/2011 09:21:22 PM 812 Views
This militant atheism is somewhat amusing. Tom - 20/12/2011 09:48:57 PM 836 Views
... somewhat irrational at times too Isaac - 21/12/2011 01:22:54 AM 754 Views
Huh? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 10:47:06 AM 790 Views
That's somewhat unrelated to the intended point of the post Isaac - 21/12/2011 12:41:49 PM 805 Views
My "Huh?" was at your claim that any reasonable definition Kim Jong-il was a millitant athiest snoopcester - 21/12/2011 12:58:44 PM 789 Views
You're objecting to me calling the Military Dictator militant? Isaac - 21/12/2011 03:13:35 PM 834 Views
Is that the long way of saying you can't back up what you said? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 04:06:06 PM 765 Views
Okay Isaac - 21/12/2011 05:03:07 PM 853 Views
Your position isn't rational nor logical Helene - 20/12/2011 12:45:03 PM 836 Views
I never stated it was either. That's the problem with spiritual matters. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:43:46 PM 749 Views
How about a faith atheist? Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:28:59 PM 940 Views
Nevermind. It appears you answered that in your reply to Tim. *NM* Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:32:19 PM 450 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. snoopcester - 19/12/2011 04:57:23 PM 905 Views
It's impossible to tell if worshipping a false god would be worse than worshipping no god at all. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:14:59 AM 706 Views
Sounds like you must be a modern-day prophet beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 05:24:24 PM 753 Views
Well, it's *possible* that he is. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:49:34 PM 832 Views
Hah, fair enough beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 06:47:07 PM 790 Views
Idiocy. Confirmation bias doesn't explain away external phenomena. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:19:10 AM 872 Views
Well. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 01:49:36 PM 821 Views
I didn't forget about it. I was getting ready to give up on it. Tom - 21/12/2011 02:27:18 PM 745 Views
That doesn't really make sense. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 03:04:23 PM 678 Views
No, it does make perfect sense. Tom - 21/12/2011 06:17:02 PM 819 Views
Also, learn to use the subjunctive. It's "if I WERE a Christian..." Tom - 19/12/2011 03:54:20 AM 863 Views
The sad thing about that comment... Larry - 19/12/2011 04:52:57 AM 984 Views
I'm pretty sure there's plenty of middle ground between those two examples LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 05:31:13 PM 753 Views
Tom is right. Agnosticism is really the only rational posistion. Urza - 20/12/2011 04:17:08 AM 746 Views
Tom, I think this means you should take up ForEx trading. *NM* Urza - 19/12/2011 04:00:20 AM 389 Views
I might. I'm close enough to it as is. I just did some ForEx ISDAs for clients... Tom - 19/12/2011 04:03:11 AM 930 Views
I really am gonna miss Hitchens...a lot *NM* *NM* Roland00 - 19/12/2011 04:06:50 AM 395 Views
I will miss him, too...a lot. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 04:17:05 AM 381 Views
so, hypothetically...if I was to send you a list of people... LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:25:47 AM 823 Views
Let's not try that. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:21:35 AM 779 Views
I'm so ronery 김정일 - 19/12/2011 06:36:38 AM 870 Views
I thought you were asking if I believed in KJ-I, the Eternal Leader Praziquantel - 19/12/2011 06:55:08 AM 769 Views
The article I just read said he died on Saturday. Rebekah - 19/12/2011 08:58:17 AM 831 Views
Yeah, he actually died on a train Saturday morning before Tom made the comment. *NM* TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:13:44 PM 343 Views
I'm not claiming causality. And, for the record, I first made the comment on Friday afternoon. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:25:07 AM 832 Views
You know what's really weird? Isaac - 19/12/2011 11:32:23 AM 832 Views
It has been there for 6 hours at this stage. Stephen - 19/12/2011 12:34:57 PM 908 Views
don't forget Mugabe (sp) Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:06:24 PM 745 Views
Zimbabwe basically is dust by now. *NM* Tim - 19/12/2011 02:52:51 PM 375 Views
They took it down, apparently. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:40:24 AM 355 Views
Not surprising, still in the revisions if anyone wants to see of course Isaac - 20/12/2011 11:06:05 AM 978 Views
Turns out Kim Jong really was il? snoopcester - 19/12/2011 12:10:15 PM 789 Views
all praise Madokami! *NM* Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:03:26 PM 439 Views
He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:23:48 PM 814 Views
Re: He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:15:09 PM 748 Views
That happened to me too. Nate - 19/12/2011 09:45:48 PM 881 Views
Re: That happened to me too. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:48:36 PM 757 Views
Re: Legend Palatine - 20/12/2011 04:54:40 PM 754 Views
I wonder if they're going to embalm him? Tom - 20/12/2011 04:39:33 AM 687 Views
The problem with predictions that come true Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM 854 Views
I don't make a lot of predictions. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 08:18:53 PM 495 Views
Well you should start at least journaling the ones that you do make. Vivien - 19/12/2011 08:40:18 PM 820 Views
I actually now do tell my friends when I have dreams that have the "feel" to them. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:36:07 AM 887 Views
Just ones about old, sick guys dying? *NM* Sareitha Sedai - 19/12/2011 09:51:12 PM 345 Views
No, sadly. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:31:44 AM 691 Views
I can attest to the fact that this conversation took place on Facebook Saturday. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:19:06 PM 766 Views
Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place Isaac - 19/12/2011 09:28:17 PM 769 Views
Re: Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:31:00 PM 767 Views
Yes, TMJ, you also contributed in this case. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:38:42 AM 347 Views
I am not a dog to be petted! TaskmasterJack - 21/12/2011 02:42:55 AM 757 Views
HAHAHAHA!!!! *NM* Tom - 21/12/2011 05:31:06 AM 440 Views
Coincidentally, I found this site today kHz1000 - 19/12/2011 10:57:36 PM 800 Views
Oh, I liked that site. I found it a few years ago. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:04 AM 348 Views
Jeez, I hope I never get on your bad side ironclad - 20/12/2011 12:06:54 AM 704 Views
Things did change for the better with Stalin's death. Vivien - 20/12/2011 02:51:12 AM 803 Views
Not for Stalin *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 09:49:39 PM 411 Views
eh, you can't have everything Yunalesca - 20/12/2011 11:08:36 PM 705 Views
So I guess you want me to destroy the voodoo doll I have of you? Oh wait...never mind. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:35 AM 339 Views
Not to downplay your awesomely uncanny coincidence... Avendesora - 20/12/2011 01:19:33 PM 780 Views
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