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The problem with predictions that come true Vivien Send a noteboard - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM
Is that those are the only ones you remember. You do not remember all the other predictions you've made (or others have made) that do not come true. Survivorship bias, to put it mildly. It's only the guesses that hit the target that anyone makes note of. It is fun though to notice predictions after the fact.

I was despondent that Hitchens died, then Cesaria Evora, then Vaclav Havel. I posted on Facebook yesterday and said that God needed to kill a dictator to maintain the balance in the world. I named Khamenei, Kim Jong-il and Chavez.

Now, about 24 hours later, Kim Jong-il is dead.

The last time I said someone "needed to die" was with John Paul II, whom I did not like (I loved Paul VI and JP I). He died within the week, causing the people I was working with at the time to call me the "angel of death".

I have to say that the timing is once again uncanny...

Anyway, let's hope God has mercy on him, because he caused enough Hell for his people here on earth.
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Kim Jong-il is dead. Would you become a fervent believer? Tom - 19/12/2011 03:37:28 AM 1743 Views
If I was a Christian, I'd pray that he would burn forever in hell. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 03:47:52 AM 1155 Views
See, I can't be an atheist. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:53:55 AM 1118 Views
I agree about atheism LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:19:02 AM 1027 Views
It's an approximation. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:40:05 PM 1015 Views
no, I'm not saying that the sheer number of people alone is sufficient LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 10:13:09 PM 898 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 04:25:06 AM 1003 Views
No, Pascal's Wager is stupid. Tim - 19/12/2011 03:09:42 PM 1000 Views
You obviously misread my comments or ignored them. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:39:59 PM 1022 Views
You're answering a different point to the one I was addressing. Tim - 19/12/2011 04:01:54 PM 926 Views
For atheism to be a tenable position, one must assume that millions lie about their experiences. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:11:53 AM 1018 Views
Look, doesn't this go against your most sacred principle? jh - 20/12/2011 06:43:27 AM 978 Views
I'm pretty sure he's not saying it's undeniable proof. LadyLorraine - 20/12/2011 09:19:44 AM 940 Views
No, it doesn't. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:30:55 PM 884 Views
Re: No, it doesn't. jh - 20/12/2011 09:21:22 PM 928 Views
This militant atheism is somewhat amusing. Tom - 20/12/2011 09:48:57 PM 942 Views
... somewhat irrational at times too Isaac - 21/12/2011 01:22:54 AM 857 Views
Huh? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 10:47:06 AM 918 Views
That's somewhat unrelated to the intended point of the post Isaac - 21/12/2011 12:41:49 PM 921 Views
My "Huh?" was at your claim that any reasonable definition Kim Jong-il was a millitant athiest snoopcester - 21/12/2011 12:58:44 PM 895 Views
You're objecting to me calling the Military Dictator militant? Isaac - 21/12/2011 03:13:35 PM 962 Views
Is that the long way of saying you can't back up what you said? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 04:06:06 PM 873 Views
Okay Isaac - 21/12/2011 05:03:07 PM 1000 Views
Your position isn't rational nor logical Helene - 20/12/2011 12:45:03 PM 968 Views
I never stated it was either. That's the problem with spiritual matters. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:43:46 PM 868 Views
How about a faith atheist? Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:28:59 PM 1049 Views
Nevermind. It appears you answered that in your reply to Tim. *NM* Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:32:19 PM 514 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. snoopcester - 19/12/2011 04:57:23 PM 1008 Views
It's impossible to tell if worshipping a false god would be worse than worshipping no god at all. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:14:59 AM 827 Views
Sounds like you must be a modern-day prophet beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 05:24:24 PM 860 Views
Well, it's *possible* that he is. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:49:34 PM 948 Views
Hah, fair enough beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 06:47:07 PM 945 Views
Idiocy. Confirmation bias doesn't explain away external phenomena. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:19:10 AM 961 Views
Well. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 01:49:36 PM 973 Views
I didn't forget about it. I was getting ready to give up on it. Tom - 21/12/2011 02:27:18 PM 865 Views
That doesn't really make sense. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 03:04:23 PM 801 Views
No, it does make perfect sense. Tom - 21/12/2011 06:17:02 PM 988 Views
Also, learn to use the subjunctive. It's "if I WERE a Christian..." Tom - 19/12/2011 03:54:20 AM 963 Views
The sad thing about that comment... Larry - 19/12/2011 04:52:57 AM 1087 Views
I'm pretty sure there's plenty of middle ground between those two examples LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 05:31:13 PM 863 Views
Tom is right. Agnosticism is really the only rational posistion. Urza - 20/12/2011 04:17:08 AM 872 Views
Tom, I think this means you should take up ForEx trading. *NM* Urza - 19/12/2011 04:00:20 AM 438 Views
I might. I'm close enough to it as is. I just did some ForEx ISDAs for clients... Tom - 19/12/2011 04:03:11 AM 1044 Views
I really am gonna miss Hitchens...a lot *NM* *NM* Roland00 - 19/12/2011 04:06:50 AM 446 Views
I will miss him, too...a lot. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 04:17:05 AM 432 Views
so, hypothetically...if I was to send you a list of people... LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:25:47 AM 920 Views
Let's not try that. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:21:35 AM 915 Views
I'm so ronery 김정일 - 19/12/2011 06:36:38 AM 990 Views
I thought you were asking if I believed in KJ-I, the Eternal Leader Praziquantel - 19/12/2011 06:55:08 AM 866 Views
The article I just read said he died on Saturday. Rebekah - 19/12/2011 08:58:17 AM 946 Views
Yeah, he actually died on a train Saturday morning before Tom made the comment. *NM* TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:13:44 PM 396 Views
I'm not claiming causality. And, for the record, I first made the comment on Friday afternoon. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:25:07 AM 944 Views
You know what's really weird? Isaac - 19/12/2011 11:32:23 AM 941 Views
It has been there for 6 hours at this stage. Stephen - 19/12/2011 12:34:57 PM 1025 Views
don't forget Mugabe (sp) Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:06:24 PM 873 Views
Zimbabwe basically is dust by now. *NM* Tim - 19/12/2011 02:52:51 PM 433 Views
They took it down, apparently. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:40:24 AM 421 Views
Not surprising, still in the revisions if anyone wants to see of course Isaac - 20/12/2011 11:06:05 AM 1121 Views
Turns out Kim Jong really was il? snoopcester - 19/12/2011 12:10:15 PM 905 Views
all praise Madokami! *NM* Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:03:26 PM 490 Views
He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:23:48 PM 920 Views
Re: He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:15:09 PM 877 Views
That happened to me too. Nate - 19/12/2011 09:45:48 PM 1002 Views
Re: That happened to me too. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:48:36 PM 884 Views
Re: Legend Palatine - 20/12/2011 04:54:40 PM 887 Views
I wonder if they're going to embalm him? Tom - 20/12/2011 04:39:33 AM 828 Views
The problem with predictions that come true Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM 980 Views
I don't make a lot of predictions. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 08:18:53 PM 549 Views
Well you should start at least journaling the ones that you do make. Vivien - 19/12/2011 08:40:18 PM 932 Views
I actually now do tell my friends when I have dreams that have the "feel" to them. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:36:07 AM 1006 Views
Just ones about old, sick guys dying? *NM* Sareitha Sedai - 19/12/2011 09:51:12 PM 388 Views
No, sadly. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:31:44 AM 799 Views
I can attest to the fact that this conversation took place on Facebook Saturday. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:19:06 PM 871 Views
Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place Isaac - 19/12/2011 09:28:17 PM 875 Views
Re: Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:31:00 PM 888 Views
Yes, TMJ, you also contributed in this case. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:38:42 AM 404 Views
I am not a dog to be petted! TaskmasterJack - 21/12/2011 02:42:55 AM 872 Views
HAHAHAHA!!!! *NM* Tom - 21/12/2011 05:31:06 AM 494 Views
Coincidentally, I found this site today kHz1000 - 19/12/2011 10:57:36 PM 926 Views
Oh, I liked that site. I found it a few years ago. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:04 AM 415 Views
Jeez, I hope I never get on your bad side ironclad - 20/12/2011 12:06:54 AM 831 Views
Things did change for the better with Stalin's death. Vivien - 20/12/2011 02:51:12 AM 906 Views
Not for Stalin *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 09:49:39 PM 490 Views
eh, you can't have everything Yunalesca - 20/12/2011 11:08:36 PM 809 Views
So I guess you want me to destroy the voodoo doll I have of you? Oh wait...never mind. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:35 AM 399 Views
Not to downplay your awesomely uncanny coincidence... Avendesora - 20/12/2011 01:19:33 PM 883 Views
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