Leads Swing States by 4% with a 3.1% margin of error.
You people, meaning all the people on these forums who post poll results, really need to start reading the fine print. When the margin of error practically covers the lead, the lead becomes statistically meaningless.
You people, meaning all the people on these forums who post poll results, really need to start reading the fine print. When the margin of error practically covers the lead, the lead becomes statistically meaningless.
From what I have seen, it is usually closer to 4% except in the largest polls. That said, Obama has consistently led nearly every national poll all year, so I disagree that hundreds of small leads do not mean much. A single polls margin of error may be 3-5%, even more with small local polls, but dozens of such polls showing the same winner make the overall outcome far more certain. We cannot quantify that greater certainty, and the different samples/methodology/weighting make the victory margin no more precise, but the simple question of who wins is fairly unambiguous.
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Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!

LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
- 1121 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll?
04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
- 631 Views

Wow, you suck at Googling!
04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
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Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
- 742 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math
04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
- 593 Views

I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
- 660 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
- 748 Views
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
- 692 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
- 599 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
- 766 Views
Thank you!
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
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It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
- 369 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
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Romney addressed that head-on
04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
- 615 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
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Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
- 646 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
- 749 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
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I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
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living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
- 699 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
- 859 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
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can you support that insane argument? *NM*
05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
- 248 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
- 700 Views
you could have just said no
05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
- 661 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
- 728 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
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A2000, your message should read:
04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
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I consider the margin of error implied.
04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
- 574 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
- 687 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
- 718 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
- 597 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
- 587 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
- 661 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
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I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
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That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
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Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
- 628 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
- 755 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
- 601 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
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Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
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The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
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You're completely missing the point.
07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
- 701 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
- 686 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
- 774 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
- 449 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
- 658 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
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you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
- 799 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
- 552 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
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I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
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WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
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Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
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The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
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I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
- 609 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
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Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
- 577 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
- 535 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
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can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
- 543 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
- 691 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
- 630 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
- 702 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
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by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
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right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take...
*NM*
05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
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about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
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if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
- 587 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
- 709 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM*
05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
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Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
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they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
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name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
- 338 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
- 586 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
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They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
- 639 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
- 738 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
- 772 Views
you are missing a key point
07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
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Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
- 413 Views