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I consider the margin of error implied. Joel Send a noteboard - 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
Leads Swing States by 4% with a 3.1% margin of error.

You people, meaning all the people on these forums who post poll results, really need to start reading the fine print. When the margin of error practically covers the lead, the lead becomes statistically meaningless.

From what I have seen, it is usually closer to 4% except in the largest polls. That said, Obama has consistently led nearly every national poll all year, so I disagree that hundreds of small leads do not mean much. A single polls margin of error may be 3-5%, even more with small local polls, but dozens of such polls showing the same winner make the overall outcome far more certain. We cannot quantify that greater certainty, and the different samples/methodology/weighting make the victory margin no more precise, but the simple question of who wins is fairly unambiguous.
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Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4% - 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM 1135 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? - 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM 645 Views
Nope, I checked Betfair, the odds on Romney continue to drift - 04/10/2012 10:02:16 AM 736 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! - 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM 845 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math - 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM 607 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know! - 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM 676 Views
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry - 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM 708 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism? - 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM 615 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM* - 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM 375 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right" - 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM 739 Views
Romney addressed that head-on - 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM 641 Views
Yeah, that "20 million" comment raised my eyebrows. - 04/10/2012 04:15:49 PM 994 Views
Why are you not counting the elderly? - 04/10/2012 07:33:28 PM 883 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff! - 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM 665 Views
A2000, your message should read: - 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM 687 Views
I consider the margin of error implied. - 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM 590 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that. - 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM 703 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that. - 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM 734 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set... - 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM 614 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll - 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM 797 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM* - 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM 455 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors - 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM 674 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers. - 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM 869 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP - 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM 559 Views
+1 - that debate is going to be comical! - 04/10/2012 07:24:26 PM 673 Views
I would end up with alchohol posioning *NM* - 04/10/2012 10:16:51 PM 405 Views
If Biden performs as expected... - 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM 704 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality - 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM 646 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night. - 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM 717 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time - 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM 646 Views
Hilarious. - 04/10/2012 11:20:32 PM 600 Views
Re: Hilarious. - 05/10/2012 12:27:33 AM 607 Views
Why can it not be both? - 05/10/2012 12:58:59 PM 746 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe? - 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM 725 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM* - 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM 310 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement. - 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM 753 Views
I'm not frightened of them, but they're hardly an ally. *NM* - 05/10/2012 03:55:45 PM 412 Views
I am not frightened, but am concerned. - 06/10/2012 01:27:40 PM 726 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first - 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM 726 Views
That's fair enough. *NM* - 05/10/2012 03:54:56 PM 360 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory. - 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM 755 Views
I could have crushed either of them in that debate - 04/10/2012 09:26:07 PM 737 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late): - 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM 795 Views
You are correct on all points. - 07/10/2012 03:12:51 AM 897 Views
"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." - 07/10/2012 02:03:49 PM 1178 Views
you are missing a key point - 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM 694 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM* - 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM 422 Views
maybe, seemed that way to me - 08/10/2012 03:18:18 PM 673 Views

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