That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
Joel Send a noteboard - 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
If we were talking about each candidates precise share of the vote, or even victory margins, it would be different, but for the fairly simple matter of A or B 136 trials is fairly large. If you flipped a coin 136 times and it came up heads 75% of the time, would you believe it a fair coin? That is the situation.
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
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LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
- 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
1245 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? 
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
822 Views
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
822 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! 
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
971 Views
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
971 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
- 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
859 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
714 Views
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
714 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
- 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
827 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
- 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
878 Views
*NM*
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
- 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
839 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
- 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
723 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
- 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
906 Views
Thank you! 
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
578 Views
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
578 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
- 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
438 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
- 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
850 Views
Romney addressed that head-on
- 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
743 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
- 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
850 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
- 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
812 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
- 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
869 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
- 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
791 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
- 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
787 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
- 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
827 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
- 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
987 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
- 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
799 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
303 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
- 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
831 Views
you could have just said no
- 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
776 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
- 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
877 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
- 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
946 Views
A2000, your message should read:
- 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
801 Views
I consider the margin of error implied.
- 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
701 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
- 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
820 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
- 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
861 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
- 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
718 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
716 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
- 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
771 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
- 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
908 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
459 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
- 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
833 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
- 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
757 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
- 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
912 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
- 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
720 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
- 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
957 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
- 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
824 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
- 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
982 Views
You're completely missing the point.
- 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
828 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
- 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
846 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
- 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
906 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
510 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
- 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
799 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
1007 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
- 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
954 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
682 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
- 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
720 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
749 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
- 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
488 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
- 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
870 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
- 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
867 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
- 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
727 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
- 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
1047 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
- 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
710 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
- 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
656 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
- 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
804 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
- 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
696 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
- 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
816 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
- 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
741 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
829 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
- 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
758 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
- 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
854 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... 
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
436 Views
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
436 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
- 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
776 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
- 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
695 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
- 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
839 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
372 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
- 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
861 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
- 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
835 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
- 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
400 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
- 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
707 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
- 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
847 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
- 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
769 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
- 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
867 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
- 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
909 Views
you are missing a key point
- 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
796 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
- 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
481 Views