One of my trials came out 69% heads. What I am saying is that this is equivalent to Obama or Romney winning 69 polls out of 100. It is not indicative that the population is bias one way or the other. It still could be random.
Our scenario here, is that we have one trial of 136 polls. Which would be equivalent to 136 coin tosses. You saw a 60% and I saw a 69% so we know that even in a random situation the coin can appear to be biased in a single trial.
The only way to alleviate this problem is by having significantly more coin flips in the trial. As you demonstrated when you added all 500 coin flips together.
Our scenario here, is that we have one trial of 136 polls. Which would be equivalent to 136 coin tosses. You saw a 60% and I saw a 69% so we know that even in a random situation the coin can appear to be biased in a single trial.
The only way to alleviate this problem is by having significantly more coin flips in the trial. As you demonstrated when you added all 500 coin flips together.
It is close, I will give you that, but not quite. And that is the closest either of us got in 10 trials (unless you did the full 10, in which case it is 15.) The same outcome in 69/100 flips once (and 60/100 twice) is thus theoretically possible but very unlikely in 10 (or 15) trials. None our trials showed the same outcome 75/100 times.
Obama leading 75% of 136 polls thus strongly indicates he has (or had) a real advantage. There is a slim possibility the sample is too small to remove all anomalies, but there will always be SOME possibility of that. The probability of it based on the current sample is, however, already quite small (if impossible to know precisely.)
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
This message last edited by Joel on 06/10/2012 at 06:09:18 PM
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
- 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
1179 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? 
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
711 Views
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
711 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! 
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
897 Views
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
897 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
- 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
797 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
653 Views
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
653 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
- 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
721 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
- 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
813 Views
*NM*
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
- 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
745 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
- 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
656 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
- 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
826 Views
Thank you! 
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
547 Views
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
547 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
- 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
402 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
- 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
782 Views
Romney addressed that head-on
- 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
684 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
- 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
793 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
- 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
717 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
- 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
802 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
- 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
728 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
- 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
709 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
- 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
756 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
- 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
920 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
- 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
737 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
271 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
- 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
761 Views
you could have just said no
- 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
718 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
- 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
795 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
- 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
883 Views
A2000, your message should read:
- 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
743 Views
I consider the margin of error implied.
- 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
629 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
- 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
750 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
- 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
781 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
- 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
660 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
651 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
- 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
721 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
- 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
848 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
421 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
- 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
760 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
- 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
688 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
- 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
825 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
- 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
659 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
- 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
900 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
- 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
762 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
- 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
912 Views
You're completely missing the point.
- 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
764 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
- 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
766 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
- 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
842 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
474 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
- 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
727 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
941 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
- 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
868 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
621 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
- 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
652 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
693 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
- 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
456 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
- 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
803 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
- 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
804 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
- 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
667 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
- 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
966 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
- 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
638 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
- 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
594 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
- 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
743 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
- 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
607 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
- 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
749 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
- 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
679 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
764 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
- 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
689 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
- 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
793 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... 
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
382 Views
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
382 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
- 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
714 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
- 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
642 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
- 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
780 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
337 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
- 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
794 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
- 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
770 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
- 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
363 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
- 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
643 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
- 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
780 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
- 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
701 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
- 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
799 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
- 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
838 Views
you are missing a key point
- 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
735 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
- 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
440 Views