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Still not a 3:1 ratio. Joel Send a noteboard - 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
One of my trials came out 69% heads. What I am saying is that this is equivalent to Obama or Romney winning 69 polls out of 100. It is not indicative that the population is bias one way or the other. It still could be random.

Our scenario here, is that we have one trial of 136 polls. Which would be equivalent to 136 coin tosses. You saw a 60% and I saw a 69% so we know that even in a random situation the coin can appear to be biased in a single trial.

The only way to alleviate this problem is by having significantly more coin flips in the trial. As you demonstrated when you added all 500 coin flips together.

It is close, I will give you that, but not quite. And that is the closest either of us got in 10 trials (unless you did the full 10, in which case it is 15.) The same outcome in 69/100 flips once (and 60/100 twice) is thus theoretically possible but very unlikely in 10 (or 15) trials. None our trials showed the same outcome 75/100 times.

Obama leading 75% of 136 polls thus strongly indicates he has (or had) a real advantage. There is a slim possibility the sample is too small to remove all anomalies, but there will always be SOME possibility of that. The probability of it based on the current sample is, however, already quite small (if impossible to know precisely.)
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This message last edited by Joel on 06/10/2012 at 06:09:18 PM
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Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4% Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM 1120 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? Larry - 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM 631 Views
Nope, I checked Betfair, the odds on Romney continue to drift Sports_Gambler - 04/10/2012 10:02:16 AM 718 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM 829 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC? Joel - 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM 742 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math Larry - 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM 593 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM 660 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help moondog - 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM 748 Views
Coming from you, that's a huge compliment! Thanks. *NM* Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 08:21:49 PM 475 Views
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry Larry - 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM 692 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism? Burr - 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM 598 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this Larry - 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM 766 Views
Thank you! Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM* Burr - 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM 523 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM* Nebhead - 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM 369 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right" beetnemesis - 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM 721 Views
Romney addressed that head-on Tom - 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM 615 Views
Yeah, that "20 million" comment raised my eyebrows. beetnemesis - 04/10/2012 04:15:49 PM 976 Views
Why are you not counting the elderly? Tom - 04/10/2012 07:33:28 PM 866 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary. Joel - 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM 728 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM 646 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite? Joel - 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM 749 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama. nossy - 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM 669 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch. Joel - 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 653 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him random thoughts - 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM 699 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center? random thoughts - 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM 859 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist Joel - 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM 683 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM* random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM 248 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding. Joel - 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM 700 Views
you could have just said no random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM 661 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers? Joel - 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM 728 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him random thoughts - 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM 821 Views
A2000, your message should read: heartbreak - 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM 669 Views
I consider the margin of error implied. Joel - 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM 573 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that. heartbreak - 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM 687 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that. Joel - 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM 718 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set... heartbreak - 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM 597 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough. Joel - 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM 587 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief. heartbreak - 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM 661 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers. Joel - 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM 774 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM* heartbreak - 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM 394 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge. Joel - 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM 698 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since... heartbreak - 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM 628 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data. Joel - 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM 755 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you. heartbreak - 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM 601 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio. Joel - 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM 837 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way. heartbreak - 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM 703 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW Joel - 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM 848 Views
You're completely missing the point. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM 701 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip. Burr - 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM 686 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM 774 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM* heartbreak - 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM 449 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors random thoughts - 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM 658 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM 854 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM 799 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM 552 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM 583 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM 633 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM* random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM 431 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful... heartbreak - 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM 742 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough" Burr - 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM 728 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when... heartbreak - 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM 609 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM 894 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM 577 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done random thoughts - 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM 535 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go.. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM 686 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP random thoughts - 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM 543 Views
+1 - that debate is going to be comical! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:24:26 PM 658 Views
I would end up with alchohol posioning *NM* random thoughts - 04/10/2012 10:16:51 PM 400 Views
If Biden performs as expected... Tom - 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM 691 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality moondog - 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM 630 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night. Narg - 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM 702 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time moondog - 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM 628 Views
Hilarious. Narg - 04/10/2012 11:20:32 PM 584 Views
Re: Hilarious. moondog - 05/10/2012 12:27:33 AM 592 Views
Why can it not be both? Joel - 05/10/2012 12:58:59 PM 732 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad random thoughts - 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM 737 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... *NM* moondog - 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM 358 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks random thoughts - 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM 652 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing moondog - 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM 587 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe? random thoughts - 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM 709 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM 305 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement. Joel - 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM 738 Views
I'm not frightened of them, but they're hardly an ally. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 03:55:45 PM 406 Views
I am not frightened, but am concerned. Joel - 06/10/2012 01:27:40 PM 711 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM 711 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM* moondog - 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM 338 Views
That's fair enough. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 03:54:56 PM 352 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it? Legolas - 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM 586 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation. Joel - 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM 712 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM 639 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory. Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM 738 Views
I could have crushed either of them in that debate TheCrownless - 04/10/2012 09:26:07 PM 720 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late): Legolas - 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM 772 Views
You are correct on all points. Avendesora - 07/10/2012 03:12:51 AM 881 Views
"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." Joel - 07/10/2012 02:03:49 PM 1162 Views
you are missing a key point random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM 679 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM* Legolas - 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM 413 Views
maybe, seemed that way to me random thoughts - 08/10/2012 03:18:18 PM 656 Views
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