Active Users:612 Time:30/03/2026 10:35:42 AM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
Let me try and put it a slightly different way. heartbreak Send a noteboard - 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
The 136 polls are equivalent to 136 flips of a coin. 75% came up heads and 25% came up tails, and the conclusion is that the coin is biased towards heads.

Lets take a look at two of the results from your trials.

Trial 4: H 40% T 60% (T+20)

If we examine Trial 4 by itself, we might conclude that the coin is biased towards tails.

Trial 5: H 48% T 52% (T+4)

However if we were to examine Trial 5 by itself, we would conclude that the coin is unbiased.

Likewise with two of my results.

With the one I mentioned previously, 69% heads, we might conclude that the coin was biased towards heads. But taking one of the other trials, where the results were 45% heads, we would conclude that the coin was possibly unbiased.

From the same coin, different conclusions can be made depending on which trial is examined but the coin can not be both biased and unbiased.

Yes, the probability of 75% occurring is smaller than 60% occurring but we have no way to determine for any given trial of 100 tests whether it happened because of bias or not.
Reply to message
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4% Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM 1179 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? Larry - 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM 711 Views
Nope, I checked Betfair, the odds on Romney continue to drift Sports_Gambler - 04/10/2012 10:02:16 AM 782 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM 897 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC? Joel - 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM 797 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math Larry - 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM 652 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM 721 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help moondog - 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM 813 Views
Coming from you, that's a huge compliment! Thanks. *NM* Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 08:21:49 PM 499 Views
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry Larry - 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM 745 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism? Burr - 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM 656 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this Larry - 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM 825 Views
Thank you! Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM* Burr - 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM 547 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM* Nebhead - 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM 402 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right" beetnemesis - 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM 782 Views
Romney addressed that head-on Tom - 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM 684 Views
Yeah, that "20 million" comment raised my eyebrows. beetnemesis - 04/10/2012 04:15:49 PM 1051 Views
Why are you not counting the elderly? Tom - 04/10/2012 07:33:28 PM 958 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary. Joel - 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM 793 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM 717 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite? Joel - 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM 802 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama. nossy - 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM 727 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch. Joel - 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 709 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him random thoughts - 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM 756 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center? random thoughts - 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM 920 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist Joel - 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM 737 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM* random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM 271 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding. Joel - 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM 760 Views
you could have just said no random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM 717 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers? Joel - 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM 794 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him random thoughts - 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM 883 Views
A2000, your message should read: heartbreak - 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM 743 Views
I consider the margin of error implied. Joel - 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM 629 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that. heartbreak - 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM 750 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that. Joel - 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM 781 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set... heartbreak - 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM 660 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough. Joel - 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM 651 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief. heartbreak - 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM 721 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers. Joel - 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM 847 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM* heartbreak - 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM 421 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge. Joel - 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM 760 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since... heartbreak - 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM 688 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data. Joel - 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM 825 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you. heartbreak - 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM 658 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio. Joel - 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM 898 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way. heartbreak - 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM 762 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW Joel - 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM 912 Views
You're completely missing the point. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM 763 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip. Burr - 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM 766 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM 842 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM* heartbreak - 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM 474 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors random thoughts - 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM 727 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM 941 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM 867 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM 621 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM 650 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers. heartbreak - 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM 692 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM* random thoughts - 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM 456 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful... heartbreak - 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM 802 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough" Burr - 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM 804 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when... heartbreak - 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM 666 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM 966 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM 638 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done random thoughts - 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM 594 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go.. heartbreak - 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM 743 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP random thoughts - 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM 607 Views
+1 - that debate is going to be comical! Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:24:26 PM 711 Views
I would end up with alchohol posioning *NM* random thoughts - 04/10/2012 10:16:51 PM 436 Views
If Biden performs as expected... Tom - 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM 749 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality moondog - 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM 679 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night. Narg - 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM 764 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time moondog - 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM 689 Views
Hilarious. Narg - 04/10/2012 11:20:32 PM 659 Views
Re: Hilarious. moondog - 05/10/2012 12:27:33 AM 649 Views
Why can it not be both? Joel - 05/10/2012 12:58:59 PM 790 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad random thoughts - 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM 792 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... *NM* moondog - 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM 382 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks random thoughts - 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM 714 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing moondog - 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM 642 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe? random thoughts - 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM 780 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM 337 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement. Joel - 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM 793 Views
I'm not frightened of them, but they're hardly an ally. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 03:55:45 PM 431 Views
I am not frightened, but am concerned. Joel - 06/10/2012 01:27:40 PM 777 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first random thoughts - 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM 769 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM* moondog - 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM 363 Views
That's fair enough. *NM* Ghavrel - 05/10/2012 03:54:56 PM 377 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it? Legolas - 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM 643 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation. Joel - 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM 778 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM 700 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory. Anonymous2000 - 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM 798 Views
I could have crushed either of them in that debate TheCrownless - 04/10/2012 09:26:07 PM 780 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late): Legolas - 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM 837 Views
You are correct on all points. Avendesora - 07/10/2012 03:12:51 AM 942 Views
"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." Joel - 07/10/2012 02:03:49 PM 1239 Views
you are missing a key point random thoughts - 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM 735 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM* Legolas - 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM 440 Views
maybe, seemed that way to me random thoughts - 08/10/2012 03:18:18 PM 717 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes