Active Users:181 Time:20/05/2024 06:03:49 PM
Birth RATES have fallen; POPULATION steadily rose in every period except the Black Deaths peak. Joel Send a noteboard - 11/03/2013 09:56:36 PM

View original post
View original postI believe you will also find the number of people too young, old and/or disabled to work has almost invariably been only a tiny fraction of those who are not.

I believe you might want to do a little actual research before spouting off, you are WRONG.

Really. Have any figures to refute the "claim" global human population has steadily risen throughout recorded history? The only exception I know is, again, the Black Deaths peak. Otherwise, population has steadily risen, more than quadrupled in the last century alone. Even in 1920 global population was higher than in 1910, despite the Great Wars mass slaughter from 1914-1918 and the Spanish Flu epidemics even higher 1919 toll. Those who devised SS a decade later were surely KEENLY aware of the actuarial risk of such things. However, they probably figured if THAT did not reverse population growth, nothing else was likely to either.
View original postBirth rates in every industrialized nation throughout history have declined (probably has a little something to do with the reduced farming population needed, but that is an assumption). This is a historical fact and easily known if you bothered to look. The ratio of workers to SS recipients began at 7:1 and has steadily fallen ever since (you must ALWAYS keep in mind that recipients are paid with current contributions, not invested capital). From the moment it began, its only destiny was failure.

Speaking of "a little research before spouting off" though, the SS beneficiary/contributor ratio is actually 2.74, not 2:

56,758,000 Social Security beneficiaries as of December 31, 2012 (SSA http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/FACTS/)

155,511,000 US workers as of December 2012 (USBLS http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm)

2:1 is SLIGHTLY lowballing it (by ~42 million workers, despite the Great Recession.) At "full employment" (i.e. 95%) the ratio would be <3.2. At full employment, and assuming 19% of SS beneficiaries will (as now) always be people <65, 2060 is the ONLY time in the next FIFTY YEARS of Census Bureau projections the ratio will hit 2:1—when it will be 1.99. In 2040 and 2045 it actually goes UP, thanks to the Baby Bust. The long terms trend in US birth rates, mortality and immigration are for the US population to rise through at least 2060, when it will be ~420 million. Far more significant to this discussion is that the Boomer spike in elderly population growth will end ~2035; afterward the rate at which both median age and elderly populations rise will be cut in HALF.

As long as contributors>beneficiaries it is not a Ponzi. Barring some catastrophe preferentially targeting ablebodied adults over children and the elderly (EXACTLY what both World Wars AND the Spanish Flu did WITHOUT lowering the US population,) people >65 will NEVER outnumber people <65. I am not even sure that is true in Africa (have not checked) despite what AIDS is doing to their population pyramid. Note the term "population PYRAMID;" grouping population by age inevitably takes that shape, which is what makes social securitys structure inherently sustainable: Population growth is ALWAYS a pyramid.

Ponzis do not fail because of the pyramid, but because it cannot extend indefinitely; SSs MUST. For those with math skill you claim, THAT is "self evident."

Now, we can debate and discuss whether it can pay a given return for a given period, or whether any given return is justified—but NOT until we get past the factually false notion it is inherently doomed to insolvency. Knowingly misrepresenting the facts precludes convincing anyone aware of them "reform" is sincere, rather than a smokescreen for abolition. Here is the real kicker: Even IF claims SS beneficiaries will soon (or ever) outnumber workers were true, it would mean the majority of Americans were on SS. Good luck convincing them to end it. But then, if you are as smart as you claim, you probably realize that if you convince everyone NOT on SS to rescind it from everyone who IS that will ALWAYS be a majority, even though the attempt is based on claiming the opposite. That is unworthy of you, or should be.


View original postI get that in your liberal political ideology Social Security is a wonderful concept. I get that. OK, fine, whatever, but facts are facts. The Social Security model that has been saddled upon the American People was crafted by morons, it was not, and could not, ever actually work indefinitely; and the people who put it together knew it, and LIED to gain a political advantage.

"Facts are facts," indeed.

"The Social Security model that has been saddled upon the American People was crafted by morons" is an opinion, unless you meant "moron" in the literal historical sense, in which case it is a falsehood disproven by every IQ test ever taken by every member of FDRs "Brain Trust."

"it was not, and could not, ever actually work indefinitely" is a mathematical falsehood disproven by your own admission the current worker:retiree ratio is 2:1, which also means it is not a Ponzi, since the number of contributors is nowhere near the number of beneficiaries, nor will be for the foreseeable future.

"the people who put it together knew it, and LIED to gain a political advantage" is an opinion AND supposition, unless you have documented evidence, let alone proof, Frances Perkins (or Francis Townsend) 1) knew SS could not work but 2) intentionally told the US public otherwise to 3) gain political advantage.

I do not ignore, only cite, the facts, with documented sources. Ideology is irrelevant to their veracity, though their veracity is VERY relevant to the wisest ideology.

Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.

Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!

LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
A little research might well do a world of good; be my guest.
Reply to message
Can You Name the Largest US Program to ANNUALLY Collect More Than It Spent for 75 Straight Years? - 28/02/2013 11:03:18 PM 1257 Views
It's the world's greatest Ponzi scheme, since the government forces us to give money to it. - 01/03/2013 01:05:05 PM 694 Views
Yes, "government forcing people to give money" defines a Ponzi; speeding tickets are Ponzis. - 01/03/2013 03:53:02 PM 812 Views
Good lord my friend..... - 02/03/2013 04:19:35 AM 737 Views
I will just link what Isaac said; maybe then you will pay attention to it. - 02/03/2013 04:56:34 AM 778 Views
I really think you terribly misread what I said *NM* - 02/03/2013 06:59:56 AM 409 Views
Yes he did. He has very poor reading comprehension skills. *NM* - 03/03/2013 01:07:59 AM 432 Views
I really do not think I did. - 04/03/2013 01:43:02 AM 812 Views
I'm pretty confident you have - 04/03/2013 11:49:19 AM 803 Views
We evidently disagree on what constitutes a Ponzi scheme. - 11/03/2013 09:56:27 PM 728 Views
No, I agree with a clear definiton, you seem not to want to absorb that - 11/03/2013 10:24:47 PM 868 Views
It is neither an investment nor fraudulent. - 12/03/2013 02:34:09 AM 932 Views
Okay, that's a really weird or naive standard to judge SS by - 01/03/2013 05:25:11 PM 745 Views
Great; will you put that on a postcard to Cannoli, A2K, Rick Perry and the rest of your party? - 01/03/2013 07:39:44 PM 764 Views
Your attacks on republican ideals would have more credit if you understood them - 02/03/2013 04:27:34 AM 755 Views
An ironic charge, since their defenses of those ideals typically suffer from the same defect. - 02/03/2013 04:51:32 AM 729 Views
I'm rubber you're glue, whatever you say bounces of me and sticks to you. nyah, nyah, nyah - 02/03/2013 12:58:10 PM 679 Views
"Unsustainable"=/="meeting monthly obligations for 75 YEARS and still having $2.5 trillion left." - 04/03/2013 01:03:09 AM 799 Views
Please look up the definition of sustainable. Hint: "its worked so far" isn't it. - 04/03/2013 04:25:19 AM 752 Views
"As it is currently constructed/funded" is one HELL of a qualifier. - 04/03/2013 04:41:30 AM 822 Views
You just don't get it, or apparently are so in love with your political ideology you won't. - 04/03/2013 04:58:15 AM 630 Views
I believe if you check civilizations record you will find the human population has steadily risen. - 04/03/2013 05:08:38 AM 733 Views
*sigh* - 04/03/2013 12:15:22 PM 690 Views
Birth RATES have fallen; POPULATION steadily rose in every period except the Black Deaths peak. - 11/03/2013 09:56:36 PM 960 Views
Re: Declining birth rates are the key - 13/03/2013 04:47:41 PM 788 Views
Ironic that you would make my point while arguing against - 04/03/2013 06:12:29 PM 642 Views
? - 11/03/2013 09:56:59 PM 803 Views
aH yes the great liberal investmetn/retirement plan that offers me a NEGATIGVE rate of return... - 02/03/2013 11:51:50 AM 664 Views
Do you sincerely believe people earning $14,560/year can afford investing 4% of it? - 04/03/2013 12:53:30 AM 832 Views
*sigh* - 04/03/2013 03:43:08 AM 667 Views
I tried it with compound interest; $44.80/month at 4% for 50 years still does not get to $1.25 mill. - 04/03/2013 04:24:51 AM 738 Views
Here are some clues. - 04/03/2013 04:37:39 AM 608 Views
It is math, not the Riddle of the Sphinx: EIther it adds up or does not. - 04/03/2013 05:02:39 AM 758 Views
Math is simple - Either you know how to calculate it or you don't - 04/03/2013 11:55:24 AM 843 Views
Indeed. - 11/03/2013 09:53:59 PM 750 Views
Re: Indeed. - 13/03/2013 05:00:10 PM 935 Views
SS is supposed to supplement a proper pension, not provide your sole income after retirement - 05/03/2013 03:53:03 AM 624 Views
Did you bother to actually read anything? - 05/03/2013 02:32:16 PM 696 Views
do *YOU* know what "living in poverty" means? - 05/03/2013 05:49:14 PM 763 Views
Re: do *YOU* know what "living in poverty" means? --- yeah, I've BEEN there. - 05/03/2013 08:01:33 PM 731 Views
how about respond to a post with logic and civility instead of being a troll for once? - 05/03/2013 11:03:00 PM 819 Views
All I have used is civility and logic, or least as much civility as was warrented. - 06/03/2013 04:28:04 AM 760 Views
yeah, it's my fault for stooping to your level.... - 08/03/2013 07:22:24 PM 813 Views
Re: yeah, it's my fault for stooping to your level.... - 10/03/2013 01:42:26 PM 681 Views
i'm not going to keep going in circles so i will finish with this.... - 11/03/2013 10:08:53 PM 1034 Views
No loss. - 13/03/2013 04:37:41 PM 619 Views
"Rah! Rah! Rah!" Can we please cut out all this blather and bile? - 05/03/2013 11:53:41 PM 696 Views
spoken like a true enemy of the state! - 06/03/2013 12:54:38 AM 664 Views
Re: spoken like a true enemy of the state! - 08/03/2013 03:04:37 PM 725 Views
I was not trolling, but clarifying. - 11/03/2013 09:53:48 PM 732 Views

Reply to Message