You can bet Cameron is on the phone to Prague trying to see what they can do to not ratify the treaty in order to save him from possible extreme embarrassment.
But considering that if the Czech Republic doesn't ratify it, that is an enormous slap in the face of the entire EU, all pressure will be brought to bear on Klaus to cave in - the Czech government has already assured that "it's not a matter of yes or no like in Ireland, it's a matter of when".
If the Czechs pass the Lisbon Treaty, then Cameron is left with egg on his face, as he cannot pull the UK out of just the treaty after it is ratified. The referendum would have to be a referendum on the entire future of Britain in Europe, which is a debate that the Tories really don't want to get into, as it's an area in which they are weak politically. If the main issue of the election is the economy, the Tories will win handily. If it moves to Europe, the debate could suddenly turn against them (either completely or at least to the point of a hung parliament and a Lib Dem-Labour alliance), lest they be forced into adopting the arguments of UKIP or the BNP, the extremism of which (and much moreso the latter) would probably drive people back to voting for Labour or the Lib Dems.
Yeah, I imagine the current Euroscepticism in Britain - I saw polls giving a 55% for secession if it should come to a referendum on that - would cool down fast if people stopped and thought about it, and if Labour, the Lib Dems and elements of the Conservatives campaigned against it. And when it comes down to it, I don't think Cameron really wants that, either. Still, he'll be able to point the finger at the EU and blame them for not being able to get the Lisbon referendum... I don't think the voters would blame him so much.
OTOH, Cameron has promised the people and his party a referendum on the matter. If he turns around at conference this weekend and says "No referendum," (and from the sound of it he won't, instead trying to stall the issue until the Czechs and Poles decide what they want to do) the party will be extremely annoyed, although they probably won't try to replace him this close to the election, and there is no viable alternate candidate, with George Osborne still tarred from the expenses scandal. And of course this gives his opponents ammunition for saying that he is not keeping his promises.
I think he'll just blame the EU and - rightly - say that his hands are tied and he can't do the referendum.
Whichever way this goes, Cameron could be in for some hot water in the coming weeks.
I guess it'll all depend on the Czechs.
Ireland accepts Lisbon Treaty
- 03/10/2009 02:09:29 PM
1479 Views
A sad sad day for europe
- 03/10/2009 02:13:53 PM
908 Views
Please tell me you didn't vote UKIP at least. 
- 03/10/2009 02:21:38 PM
930 Views
- 03/10/2009 02:21:38 PM
930 Views
United States of Europe! Here we come.
- 03/10/2009 02:25:16 PM
953 Views
- 03/10/2009 02:25:16 PM
953 Views
We don't get a vote, because we would not say the right thing. So fuck democracy.
- 03/10/2009 02:29:25 PM
854 Views
Why does Tim think No is the right choice?
- 03/10/2009 11:02:53 PM
880 Views
What would you say is the most important effect and/or overall significance of the treaty? *NM*
- 03/10/2009 02:30:29 PM
390 Views
Mostly making the EU less unwieldy.
- 03/10/2009 02:37:06 PM
883 Views
Why on earth would you want to let Turkey in?
- 03/10/2009 04:05:24 PM
924 Views
Several reasons.
- 03/10/2009 04:41:59 PM
1014 Views
*NM*
I am pleased by this. Here is hoping for an effective elected leader.
- 05/10/2009 03:20:36 PM
914 Views
Yeah, that's true...
- 05/10/2009 03:42:29 PM
864 Views
So the European parliament will not elect the leader?
- 05/10/2009 05:08:25 PM
891 Views
Er, that's news to me... but let's look it up.
- 05/10/2009 05:14:09 PM
844 Views
I would have rejected any treaty that would not let me elect a representative or
- 05/10/2009 06:14:46 PM
865 Views