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True science allows for dissent, correct? damookster Send a noteboard - 07/10/2020 04:26:25 PM

The Great Barrington Declaration

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

Mook

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"Mookie often gives us multiples."

Sareitha Sedai 07/18/2017
Read It and View Others Who Have Signed Here
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True science allows for dissent, correct? - 07/10/2020 04:26:25 PM 373 Views
Great Barrington as in the American Institute for Economic Research? If so they are nuts. - 07/10/2020 08:43:15 PM 23 Views
did you read the bios of the authors and signatories? *NM* - 07/10/2020 08:55:29 PM 8 Views
Yes and I also read an interview of Martin Kulldorff that made me skeptical. - 07/10/2020 09:10:59 PM 18 Views
I posted a rebuttal already in my first comment. *NM* - 07/10/2020 09:30:48 PM 5 Views
Mookie I was "already" doing the reading prior to your first comment. - 07/10/2020 09:36:22 PM 12 Views
Blah, blah, blah - 07/10/2020 10:09:14 PM 10 Views
Let me water the grass first - 07/10/2020 10:21:23 PM 9 Views
So... what makes you skeptical exactly? - 09/10/2020 10:14:00 PM 17 Views
Yep found the press release, AIER hosted this. - 07/10/2020 09:16:36 PM 18 Views
Re: Yep found the press release, AIER hosted this. - 07/10/2020 10:33:37 PM 21 Views
Are you really asking this question? - 07/10/2020 10:53:33 PM 23 Views
Yes he has - 07/10/2020 11:06:49 PM 11 Views
Because Austrian Economics believe in Therapeutic Nihilism as a "value belief", *shrug* - 07/10/2020 11:02:33 PM 15 Views
Roland as I replied to snoop on Facebook, - 07/10/2020 11:41:27 PM 16 Views
Mookie I did not wound your ego. - 07/10/2020 11:56:07 PM 10 Views
More importantly to my interests. - 07/10/2020 11:58:53 PM 17 Views
Snoop, Nossy, and their kids are doing well. - 08/10/2020 12:11:32 AM 19 Views
Squee at that good news! *NM* - 08/10/2020 12:17:57 AM 4 Views
Judging by... all of this above, apparently not. *NM* - 08/10/2020 10:03:53 PM 4 Views
The sciences are not all the same. - 08/10/2020 11:33:45 PM 17 Views
I think you missed his point... - 09/10/2020 09:59:49 PM 17 Views
I agree with these experts - 09/10/2020 09:35:34 PM 31 Views
Thank you - 09/10/2020 11:29:51 PM 29 Views
Yep - 10/10/2020 01:55:12 AM 24 Views
Re: Yep - 11/10/2020 03:21:55 AM 13 Views
Have you ever considered? - 11/10/2020 08:16:46 PM 17 Views
Just eat the fucking green eggs and ham. *NM* - 11/10/2020 10:22:56 PM 5 Views
Instead I am about to eat a chicken, cheddar sandwich. - 11/10/2020 11:17:44 PM 9 Views
Linguine aglio e olio *NM* - 12/10/2020 12:40:14 AM 6 Views
Re: Have you ever considered? - 12/10/2020 01:13:09 AM 12 Views
You seem to be under the presumption - 12/10/2020 03:14:16 AM 16 Views
All's well that ends... well... - 12/10/2020 07:06:02 AM 9 Views
You do know why the cure has been so bad in the US, right? - 10/10/2020 02:17:28 AM 27 Views
Re: You do know why the cure has been so bad in the US, right? - 11/10/2020 03:37:14 AM 24 Views
Then the prescription of this dissent is even more stupid - 11/10/2020 05:56:21 PM 26 Views
Nope - 12/10/2020 02:10:47 AM 18 Views
More evidence that we are better equipped to handle this... - 12/10/2020 07:20:20 PM 17 Views

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