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80% of SYMPTOMATIC CASES are fine on their own, but the analysis is that well fewer than half of cases are symptomatic.
80% of SYMPTOMATIC CASES are fine on their own, but the analysis is that well fewer than half of cases are symptomatic.
I did lower the proportion who need hospital care by a factor of 4 (20% to 5%), and intensive care by a factor of 5 (5% to 1%). That should well cover a large number of cases not being tested before.
Do you want me to show my work to back up that claim?
View original postAnd mortality isn't at 2%. Not even close. It's 0.5-0.6% based on the most precise information we have. It's triple a bad flu season but it's not 2%. Not even remotely close.
The mortality right now stands at almost 2% dead, out of the number of confirmed cases. 1.83% to be more precise. But then I lowered that by a factor of 10, dropping it to 0.2% for healthy people. That was the mortality which gave 200 000 deaths for the young and healthy, almost as many as the 270 000 yearly deaths below 50.
--- signature starts here ---
I am the Demon of Delightfulness and Sinister Smirkings!
e^(πi)+1=0
identity named after the Terry Pratchett of 18th century mathematics
I am the Demon of Delightfulness and Sinister Smirkings!
e^(πi)+1=0
identity named after the Terry Pratchett of 18th century mathematics
This message last edited by Floffe on 13/12/2020 at 07:10:58 AM
The China Flu isn't nearly as bad as they are making it out to be
- 11/12/2020 08:54:20 PM
525 Views
Co-morbidities are not just pre-existing conditions
- 11/12/2020 10:08:18 PM
160 Views
I don't get how people can minimize the threat after north Italy. *NM*
- 12/12/2020 07:40:11 PM
67 Views
Because North Italy has an incredibly high population of the extremely elderly? *NM*
- 16/12/2020 03:54:41 AM
67 Views
*NM*
For the overwhelming majority (>99%) coronavirus is going to be an inconvenience
- 12/12/2020 03:46:06 AM
149 Views
That is an exaggeration
- 12/12/2020 08:18:39 AM
180 Views
Nope
- 13/12/2020 01:22:48 AM
138 Views
I did account for that
- 13/12/2020 07:04:01 AM
162 Views
Mortality is around 0.6%
- 14/12/2020 03:19:46 PM
231 Views
I simply calculated
- 15/12/2020 07:05:19 AM
162 Views
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- 12/12/2020 05:51:37 AM
178 Views
On restrictions...
- 12/12/2020 06:21:16 PM
138 Views
Re: On restrictions...
- 15/12/2020 08:50:38 AM
121 Views
Re: On restrictions...
- 16/12/2020 04:24:08 AM
134 Views
Why is it a false choice ? Isn't lockdown exactly that ? I know the US had some lockdowns *NM*
- 16/12/2020 07:34:30 AM
68 Views
*NM*
Calling someone a pussy implies there is no irrevocable change.
- 12/12/2020 08:23:22 PM
133 Views
A tragedy
- 12/12/2020 10:25:17 PM
156 Views
Cannoli your metaphor is not very apt
- 12/12/2020 10:54:18 PM
164 Views
How is the metaphor not apt?
- 16/12/2020 03:58:52 AM
139 Views
If I could attempt to steel-man this argument...
- 17/12/2020 07:23:03 PM
148 Views