Active Users:484 Time:07/06/2026 12:27:03 AM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
It was a very simple model Floffe Send a noteboard - 16/12/2020 06:39:37 AM

Yours is much better. That is the thing with models, they require simplification.

It would be interesting to relate your numbers to the total population in those age groups.


But in my model, I assumed that 100 million young, healthy Americans would be infected. Currently there are 17 million confirmed cases in the whole population. I think it is a reasonable assumption that without restrictions and social distancing or would spread quite a lot faster, no? (among the part of the population who are young and healthy)

And yes, it is interesting that the very young have fewer deaths. I have a 6 tu old daughter, she barely meets her grandparents. So not many ways to get infected.

--- signature starts here ---

I am the Demon of Delightfulness and Sinister Smirkings!

e^(πi)+1=0
identity named after the Terry Pratchett of 18th century mathematics
This message last edited by Floffe on 16/12/2020 at 06:43:53 AM
Reply to message
The China Flu isn't nearly as bad as they are making it out to be Cannoli - 11/12/2020 08:54:20 PM 747 Views
Co-morbidities are not just pre-existing conditions Floffe - 11/12/2020 10:08:18 PM 370 Views
Clearly you're better at this than I am... Legolas - 12/12/2020 12:08:29 AM 350 Views
Thank you Floffe - 12/12/2020 07:34:20 AM 334 Views
Probably a combination... fionwe1987 - 12/12/2020 06:08:26 PM 337 Views
I don't get how people can minimize the threat after north Italy. *NM* AgentApple - 12/12/2020 07:40:11 PM 161 Views
Because North Italy has an incredibly high population of the extremely elderly? *NM* Tom - 16/12/2020 03:54:41 AM 150 Views
Also, I'm happy you're feeling better now! *NM* Floffe - 11/12/2020 10:11:15 PM 181 Views
While we are making conclusions from personal anecdotes... Narg - 12/12/2020 02:17:52 AM 367 Views
For the overwhelming majority (>99%) coronavirus is going to be an inconvenience Tom - 12/12/2020 03:46:06 AM 343 Views
That is an exaggeration Floffe - 12/12/2020 08:18:39 AM 381 Views
Nope Tom - 13/12/2020 01:22:48 AM 334 Views
I did account for that Floffe - 13/12/2020 07:04:01 AM 361 Views
Mortality is around 0.6% Tom - 14/12/2020 03:19:46 PM 493 Views
I simply calculated Floffe - 15/12/2020 07:05:19 AM 361 Views
Your calculations are wrong Tom - 16/12/2020 03:49:55 AM 382 Views
It was a very simple model Floffe - 16/12/2020 06:39:37 AM 352 Views
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. damookster - 12/12/2020 05:51:37 AM 380 Views
Yes, arbitrary restrictions are BS Floffe - 12/12/2020 08:45:28 AM 342 Views
On restrictions... fionwe1987 - 12/12/2020 06:21:16 PM 333 Views
Re: On restrictions... AgentApple - 15/12/2020 08:50:38 AM 317 Views
Re: On restrictions... fionwe1987 - 16/12/2020 04:24:08 AM 321 Views
Why is it a false choice ? Isn't lockdown exactly that ? I know the US had some lockdowns *NM* AgentApple - 16/12/2020 07:34:30 AM 151 Views
If all you do is a lockdown, sure fionwe1987 - 17/12/2020 12:35:24 AM 325 Views
I'm not sure I agree but as the song says, I'll let it go *NM* AgentApple - 17/12/2020 07:07:38 AM 169 Views
Calling someone a pussy implies there is no irrevocable change. Roland00 - 12/12/2020 08:23:22 PM 345 Views
A tragedy Cannoli - 12/12/2020 10:25:17 PM 361 Views
Cannoli your metaphor is not very apt Roland00 - 12/12/2020 10:54:18 PM 368 Views
How is the metaphor not apt? Tom - 16/12/2020 03:58:52 AM 321 Views
The metaphor is a pussy! *NM* Roland00 - 16/12/2020 11:48:37 PM 156 Views
If I could attempt to steel-man this argument... entyti - 17/12/2020 07:23:03 PM 353 Views
since we're being nit picky on this analysis.... damookster - 17/12/2020 08:15:00 PM 314 Views
If we are going to get nitpicky and share long conversations Roland00 - 17/12/2020 08:49:18 PM 316 Views
Sure, but... entyti - 17/12/2020 10:56:36 PM 319 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes