Active Users:549 Time:09/03/2026 08:33:12 PM
It was a very simple model Floffe Send a noteboard - 16/12/2020 06:39:37 AM

Yours is much better. That is the thing with models, they require simplification.

It would be interesting to relate your numbers to the total population in those age groups.


But in my model, I assumed that 100 million young, healthy Americans would be infected. Currently there are 17 million confirmed cases in the whole population. I think it is a reasonable assumption that without restrictions and social distancing or would spread quite a lot faster, no? (among the part of the population who are young and healthy)

And yes, it is interesting that the very young have fewer deaths. I have a 6 tu old daughter, she barely meets her grandparents. So not many ways to get infected.

--- signature starts here ---

I am the Demon of Delightfulness and Sinister Smirkings!

e^(πi)+1=0
identity named after the Terry Pratchett of 18th century mathematics
This message last edited by Floffe on 16/12/2020 at 06:43:53 AM
Reply to message
The China Flu isn't nearly as bad as they are making it out to be - 11/12/2020 08:54:20 PM 707 Views
Co-morbidities are not just pre-existing conditions - 11/12/2020 10:08:18 PM 338 Views
Clearly you're better at this than I am... - 12/12/2020 12:08:29 AM 312 Views
Thank you - 12/12/2020 07:34:20 AM 294 Views
Probably a combination... - 12/12/2020 06:08:26 PM 299 Views
Also, I'm happy you're feeling better now! *NM* - 11/12/2020 10:11:15 PM 158 Views
While we are making conclusions from personal anecdotes... - 12/12/2020 02:17:52 AM 333 Views
For the overwhelming majority (>99%) coronavirus is going to be an inconvenience - 12/12/2020 03:46:06 AM 298 Views
That is an exaggeration - 12/12/2020 08:18:39 AM 344 Views
Nope - 13/12/2020 01:22:48 AM 295 Views
I did account for that - 13/12/2020 07:04:01 AM 319 Views
Mortality is around 0.6% - 14/12/2020 03:19:46 PM 450 Views
I simply calculated - 15/12/2020 07:05:19 AM 318 Views
Your calculations are wrong - 16/12/2020 03:49:55 AM 335 Views
It was a very simple model - 16/12/2020 06:39:37 AM 307 Views
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. - 12/12/2020 05:51:37 AM 342 Views
Yes, arbitrary restrictions are BS - 12/12/2020 08:45:28 AM 293 Views
On restrictions... - 12/12/2020 06:21:16 PM 294 Views
Re: On restrictions... - 15/12/2020 08:50:38 AM 275 Views
Re: On restrictions... - 16/12/2020 04:24:08 AM 282 Views
Why is it a false choice ? Isn't lockdown exactly that ? I know the US had some lockdowns *NM* - 16/12/2020 07:34:30 AM 132 Views
If all you do is a lockdown, sure - 17/12/2020 12:35:24 AM 288 Views
I'm not sure I agree but as the song says, I'll let it go *NM* - 17/12/2020 07:07:38 AM 153 Views
Calling someone a pussy implies there is no irrevocable change. - 12/12/2020 08:23:22 PM 306 Views
A tragedy - 12/12/2020 10:25:17 PM 323 Views
Cannoli your metaphor is not very apt - 12/12/2020 10:54:18 PM 328 Views
How is the metaphor not apt? - 16/12/2020 03:58:52 AM 279 Views
The metaphor is a pussy! *NM* - 16/12/2020 11:48:37 PM 138 Views
If I could attempt to steel-man this argument... - 17/12/2020 07:23:03 PM 314 Views
since we're being nit picky on this analysis.... - 17/12/2020 08:15:00 PM 274 Views
If we are going to get nitpicky and share long conversations - 17/12/2020 08:49:18 PM 276 Views
Sure, but... - 17/12/2020 10:56:36 PM 284 Views

Reply to Message