Sure, he doesn't think there was motive for the scum to kill Napoleon, but that doesn't mean they couldn't have (IMO Night 1 kills seem as much a shot in the dark for scum as are a day one lynches for the town - there is some info, but the scum can really WIFOM with their night kill, too). He's heavily discounting the possibility that Napoleon was targeted by scum - perhaps because he is scum himself and thus knows that whatever attacked Napoleon wasn't scum? I mean, there is no evidence of a second attack anywhere (well, aside from the poison, but you said that was an RB), so a reasonable townie would think Napoleon was attacked by scum, right? So why put up the notion of a werewolf attack/cult as the most likely?

Just throwing that out there since I really think the werewolf theory is a stretch at this point.