Active Users:768 Time:17/03/2026 07:17:15 AM
I think I have a plan Isaac Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1979 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 691 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 1132 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 1083 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1178 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 1087 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 1130 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 626 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 1039 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 678 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 716 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 1053 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1327 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 589 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 671 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 647 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 1042 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 1142 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1187 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 1113 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1234 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 1000 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 682 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 666 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 1061 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1287 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 626 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 1096 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 628 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 1098 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 1054 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1180 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 1117 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 1058 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1261 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 1099 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 1167 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 1128 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1174 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 981 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 1101 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 1152 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 1060 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 1137 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 661 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 613 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 635 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 686 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 1086 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 1114 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 1124 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 1133 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 1053 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 1046 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 1039 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 599 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 1107 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 1079 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 1049 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 1135 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 1086 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 1098 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 1109 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 1060 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 1096 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 1059 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1210 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1197 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 1153 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 1004 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 1042 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 1063 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 981 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 1061 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 1116 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 975 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 604 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 1032 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 1113 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 931 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 1061 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1154 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 946 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 1100 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 984 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 1046 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 644 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 1070 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 1143 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1176 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 1085 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 1114 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 1084 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 622 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 1031 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 1037 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 640 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 1133 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 607 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 1065 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 1084 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 1045 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 1037 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 609 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 1019 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 648 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 596 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 637 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 574 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 1043 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 962 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 633 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 710 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 1210 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1204 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 559 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 676 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 1002 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 1083 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 1050 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 1024 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 1071 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 1035 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1167 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 1086 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1261 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 1098 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 1041 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 1094 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 1035 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 1054 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 1031 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 1095 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 1027 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 1096 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 1068 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 1069 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 996 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 1114 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 1067 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 1092 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 1149 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 1089 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 1142 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 601 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 1136 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 1098 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 1073 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 1104 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 1100 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 593 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1349 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 1084 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 1062 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 1083 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 1174 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 1018 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 1157 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 1094 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 1011 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 899 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 500 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 962 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1610 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 1028 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 1128 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 1067 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 1078 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 1120 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 1090 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 1126 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 1053 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 1065 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1302 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 1000 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1221 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 949 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 957 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 1033 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 1142 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 1107 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 1105 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1165 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 1032 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 1037 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 1094 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 1097 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 1038 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 1099 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 1143 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 999 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 1035 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 1108 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 1049 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 1031 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 1094 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 1083 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1299 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 641 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 1099 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 1015 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 658 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 1094 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1182 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 1128 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 620 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 1027 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 606 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 673 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 1101 Views

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