Active Users:1524 Time:23/10/2025 10:24:10 PM
I think I have a plan Isaac Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1865 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 615 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 1018 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 987 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1059 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 962 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 994 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 580 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 958 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 614 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 659 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 936 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1218 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 540 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 621 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 593 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 948 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 1033 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1082 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 1009 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1118 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 902 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 621 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 618 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 964 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1119 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 566 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 987 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 581 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 1002 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 952 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1078 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 1032 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 956 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1152 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 1004 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 1052 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 1026 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1076 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 878 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 989 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 1022 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 935 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 1022 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 605 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 556 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 572 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 579 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 969 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 999 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 1014 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 1020 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 941 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 943 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 941 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 548 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 997 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 971 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 957 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 1021 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 979 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 1002 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 989 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 942 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 973 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 943 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1112 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1101 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 1045 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 893 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 923 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 958 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 896 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 963 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 1006 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 869 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 543 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 937 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 1009 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 831 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 967 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1049 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 844 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 986 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 890 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 938 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 591 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 972 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 1013 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1079 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 988 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 986 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 967 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 578 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 937 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 934 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 580 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 1021 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 564 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 960 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 983 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 955 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 926 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 572 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 904 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 584 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 557 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 580 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 529 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 946 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 861 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 576 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 655 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 1069 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1097 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 512 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 618 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 911 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 967 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 948 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 942 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 972 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 934 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1058 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 981 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1164 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 995 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 921 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 992 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 948 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 946 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 926 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 958 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 932 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 987 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 985 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 978 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 886 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 1011 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 972 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 991 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 1036 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 980 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 1028 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 554 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 1029 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 980 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 962 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 1005 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 976 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 542 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1254 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 995 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 976 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 975 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 1051 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 914 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 1045 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 977 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 884 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 800 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 446 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 854 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1506 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 936 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 1021 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 962 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 978 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 1015 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 953 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 1026 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 952 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 968 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1192 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 896 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1107 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 862 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 857 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 928 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 1023 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 986 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 998 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1078 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 933 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 927 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 978 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 1007 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 944 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 1000 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 1040 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 905 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 939 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 993 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 957 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 927 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 990 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 974 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1192 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 593 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 976 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 914 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 598 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 1002 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1068 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 1013 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 564 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 932 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 555 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 607 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 1002 Views

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