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knife hand? *confused* *NM* Yunalesca Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
*MySmiley*
The best things in life are weird:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Paigeofmaces

“Brave Hobo, defend me as I flee!”
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1647 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 504 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 814 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 766 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 842 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 743 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 773 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 485 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 745 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 479 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 528 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 727 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 984 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 440 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 520 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 492 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 741 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 822 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 859 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 793 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 896 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 678 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 510 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 503 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 765 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 875 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 461 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 775 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 475 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 791 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 743 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 866 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 812 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 747 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 925 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 786 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 843 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 817 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 841 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 671 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 766 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 806 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 712 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 796 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 503 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 454 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 460 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 469 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 748 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 786 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 793 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 804 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 705 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 738 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 716 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 455 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 794 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 765 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 740 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 796 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 770 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 775 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 786 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 722 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 771 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 714 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 894 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 898 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 808 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 693 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 674 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 741 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 693 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 747 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 784 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 671 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 443 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 729 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 770 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 613 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 753 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 840 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 630 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 793 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 715 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 743 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 485 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 754 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 768 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 843 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 784 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 760 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 758 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 476 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 730 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 729 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 467 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 802 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 477 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 755 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 762 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 746 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 727 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 477 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 700 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 482 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 456 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 468 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 434 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 732 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 661 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 479 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 536 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 807 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 879 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 417 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 520 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 685 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 763 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 757 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 763 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 767 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 719 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 796 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 750 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 920 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 776 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 733 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 787 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 744 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 738 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 702 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 733 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 734 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 778 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 763 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 758 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 662 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 804 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 751 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 765 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 796 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 746 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 823 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 458 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 814 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 786 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 763 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 797 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 769 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 438 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 995 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 772 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 764 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 750 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 811 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 706 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 813 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 756 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 657 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 579 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 352 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 645 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1304 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 737 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 801 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 762 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 768 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 799 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 725 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 810 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 730 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 749 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 920 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 706 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 860 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 653 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 655 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 739 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 809 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 762 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 778 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 863 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 726 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 718 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 760 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 782 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 736 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 779 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 825 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 700 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 750 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 780 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 749 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 720 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 739 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 771 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 965 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 498 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 768 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 693 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 500 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 774 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 850 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 772 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 471 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 724 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 457 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 473 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 777 Views

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