Active Users:1047 Time:15/08/2026 11:51:54 PM
Moving along Isaac Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 2072 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 749 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 1218 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 1182 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1255 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 1179 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 1217 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 676 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 1140 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 739 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 765 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 1139 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1412 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 650 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 733 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 697 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 1121 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 1222 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1275 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 1197 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1328 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 1083 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 727 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 708 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 1147 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1374 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 680 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 1191 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 674 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 1180 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 1142 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1287 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 1212 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 1149 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1343 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 1179 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 1261 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 1214 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1280 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 1053 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 1205 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 1245 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 1136 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 1239 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 711 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 663 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 686 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 745 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 1176 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 1210 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 1221 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 1223 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 1133 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 1137 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 1111 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 650 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 1195 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 1162 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 1125 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 1219 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 1167 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 1184 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 1190 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 1141 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 1174 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 1145 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1316 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1289 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 1248 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 1088 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 1123 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 1143 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 1067 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 1150 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 1194 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 1060 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 658 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 1116 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 1210 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 1024 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 1143 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1234 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 1027 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 1183 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 1057 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 1135 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 692 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 1149 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 1243 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1272 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 1174 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 1200 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 1169 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 675 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 1110 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 1109 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 693 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 1221 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 659 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 1150 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 1177 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 1131 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 1126 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 660 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 1106 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 700 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 638 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 691 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 624 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 1126 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 1044 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 680 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 763 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 1297 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1317 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 615 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 729 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 1090 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 1157 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 1136 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 1113 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 1147 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 1119 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1249 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 1192 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1365 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 1193 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 1125 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 1167 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 1118 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 1135 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 1116 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 1173 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 1116 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 1173 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 1148 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 1147 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 1083 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 1206 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 1149 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 1181 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 1225 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 1171 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 1230 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 652 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 1229 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 1195 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 1165 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 1193 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 1188 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 647 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1439 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 1171 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 1153 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 1164 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 1274 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 1108 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 1239 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 1173 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 1093 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 967 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 549 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 1048 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1702 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 1120 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 1214 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 1140 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 1168 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 1196 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 1177 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 1202 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 1139 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 1166 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1392 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 1091 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1309 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 1033 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 1047 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 1114 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 1235 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 1194 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 1197 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1259 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 1115 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 1117 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 1189 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 1173 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 1116 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 1194 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 1225 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 1066 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 1124 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 1193 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 1137 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 1100 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 1178 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 1167 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1389 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 692 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 1188 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 1084 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 710 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 1180 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1263 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 1205 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 677 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 1110 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 658 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 732 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 1187 Views

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