Active Users:1220 Time:05/10/2026 07:24:11 PM
...erm... Kylia Skydancer Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.



Okay, I am slightly won over by this idea...not enough to endorse it and participate yet...but enough to want to know more details.

For one, I think we definitely need those suggestions and advice you mentioned because I very honestly have no clue how I would even start.

I think I also need to hear more opinions on this.

but I like that it's a new idea that the scum won't be able to have a prediscussed offense against, especially if we can get it done before the next night phase.
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 2099 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 767 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 1241 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 1207 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1278 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 1199 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 1243 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 689 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 1167 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 756 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 784 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 1164 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1443 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 665 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 749 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 715 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 1144 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 1251 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1303 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 1227 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1358 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 1104 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 742 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 720 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 1168 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1402 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 697 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 1213 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 689 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 1204 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 1166 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1308 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 1239 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 1175 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1365 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 1205 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 1281 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 1241 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1308 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 1076 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 1231 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 1265 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 1166 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 1261 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 723 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 677 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 699 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 763 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 1204 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 1238 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 1250 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 1247 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 1155 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 1164 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 1131 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 665 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 1216 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 1184 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 1150 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 1245 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 1192 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 1206 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 1216 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 1168 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 1192 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 1165 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1334 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1309 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 1274 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 1108 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 1149 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 1160 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 1086 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 1176 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 1222 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 1080 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 674 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 1142 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 1233 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 1042 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 1166 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1263 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 1051 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 1211 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 1081 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 1161 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 705 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 1170 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 1272 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1297 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 1201 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 1227 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 1193 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 691 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 1129 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 1128 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 705 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 1244 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 676 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 1177 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 1200 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 1152 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 1148 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 675 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 1129 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 713 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 652 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 707 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 635 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 1150 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 1067 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 691 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 780 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 1322 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1348 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 627 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 743 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 1109 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 1181 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 1160 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 1136 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 1172 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 1145 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1274 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 1220 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1397 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 1217 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 1147 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 1191 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 1139 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 1161 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 1136 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 1200 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 1147 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 1196 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 1170 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 1172 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 1108 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 1234 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 1180 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 1205 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 1248 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 1195 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 1251 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 671 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 1247 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 1226 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 1192 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 1219 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 1211 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 658 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1467 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 1195 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 1179 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 1189 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 1302 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 1134 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 1266 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 1197 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 1114 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 990 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 564 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 1067 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1727 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 1145 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 1235 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 1167 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 1191 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 1217 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 1203 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 1230 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 1160 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 1194 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1423 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 1111 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1329 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 1061 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 1075 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 1135 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 1254 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 1219 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 1220 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1277 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 1139 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 1138 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 1212 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 1193 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 1135 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 1221 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 1252 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 1091 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 1146 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 1215 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 1160 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 1123 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 1207 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 1190 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1415 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 706 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 1213 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 1105 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 722 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 1203 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1282 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 1223 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 688 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 1133 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 671 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 744 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 1214 Views

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