I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)
The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.
I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.
If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.
If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.
Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.
I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.
It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example
IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR
Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.
Okay, I am slightly won over by this idea...not enough to endorse it and participate yet...but enough to want to know more details.
For one, I think we definitely need those suggestions and advice you mentioned because I very honestly have no clue how I would even start.
I think I also need to hear more opinions on this.
but I like that it's a new idea that the scum won't be able to have a prediscussed offense against, especially if we can get it done before the next night phase.
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
- 1647 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
- 504 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
- 814 Views
Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
- 766 Views
Re: Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
- 842 Views
plus...
15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
- 743 Views
Voting Record
18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
- 745 Views
Moving along
15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
- 984 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
- 439 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
- 793 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
- 896 Views
my current suspects
15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
- 875 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
- 461 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
- 841 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
- 671 Views
I can
18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
- 766 Views
Nay
18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
- 796 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
- 804 Views
We need to come up with a plan
19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
- 794 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
- 765 Views
? is the logical target
19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
- 740 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
- 786 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
- 722 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
- 771 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
- 714 Views
I think I have a plan
20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
- 894 Views
...erm...
20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
- 898 Views
Crypto tricks
20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
- 808 Views
Some thoughts...
19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
- 715 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
- 743 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
- 843 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
- 784 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
- 760 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
- 730 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
- 729 Views
That is correct. *NM*
21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
- 467 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
- 755 Views
Okay
21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
- 762 Views
Re: Okay
21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
- 727 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
- 477 Views
horsefeathers
21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
- 700 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
- 482 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM*
21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
- 434 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
- 879 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
- 417 Views
A couple Questions
21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
- 763 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
- 796 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
- 733 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
- 733 Views
what now?
22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
- 662 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
- 804 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
- 765 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
- 796 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
- 746 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
- 823 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
- 541 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
- 814 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
- 764 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
- 811 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
- 813 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
- 756 Views
eh, what the heck
24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
- 657 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
- 482 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
- 352 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
- 645 Views
right, mine
24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
- 801 Views
Re: right, mine
24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
- 762 Views
EPWOP
24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
- 768 Views
Re: EPWOP
24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
- 799 Views
Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
- 724 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
- 810 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
- 655 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
- 739 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
- 863 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
- 726 Views
EBWOP
25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
- 718 Views
It's probably also worth noting
25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
- 760 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
- 779 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
- 825 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
- 700 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
- 750 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
- 780 Views
not to mention...
26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
- 739 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
- 498 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
- 890 Views
Somebody want to hammer?
26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
- 774 Views