I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)
The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.
I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.
If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.
If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.
Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.
I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.
It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example
IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR
Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
2012 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
- 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
708 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
- 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
1161 Views
Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1118 Views
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1118 Views
Re: Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1205 Views
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1205 Views
plus...
- 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
1127 Views
Voting Record
- 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
1073 Views
Moving along
- 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
1359 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
607 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
1141 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
1269 Views
my current suspects
- 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
1316 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
644 Views
Expanding the list
- 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM
1152 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
- 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
1214 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
- 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
1004 Views
I can
- 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
1146 Views
Nay
- 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
1179 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
- 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
1164 Views
We need to come up with a plan
- 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
1135 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
- 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
1111 Views
? is the logical target
- 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
1080 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
1137 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
1090 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
- 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
1124 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
- 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
1094 Views
I think I have a plan
- 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
1244 Views
...erm...
- 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
1233 Views
Crypto tricks
- 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
1195 Views
Some thoughts...
- 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
1010 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
- 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
1081 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
- 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
1215 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
1115 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
1140 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
1059 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
- 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
1068 Views
That is correct. *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
654 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
- 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
1096 Views
Okay
- 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
1120 Views
Re: Okay
- 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
1069 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
- 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
627 Views
horsefeathers
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1049 Views
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1049 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
- 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
666 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this.
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
587 Views
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
587 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
- 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
1238 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
577 Views
A couple Questions
- 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
1057 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
- 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
1196 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
- 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
1074 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
- 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
1126 Views
what now?
- 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
1029 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
- 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
1152 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
- 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
1134 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
1180 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
- 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
1113 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
- 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
1174 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
691 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
1175 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
- 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
1102 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
- 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
1218 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
1190 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
1117 Views
eh, what the heck
- 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
1041 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
636 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
514 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
- 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
993 Views
right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
1164 Views
Re: right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
1097 Views
EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
1110 Views
Re: EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
1152 Views
Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
1117 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
1155 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
992 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
1070 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
1200 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
1061 Views
EBWOP
- 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
1066 Views
It's probably also worth noting
- 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
1130 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
1136 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
- 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
1171 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
- 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
1023 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
1064 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
1138 Views
not to mention...
- 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
1125 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
- 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
657 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1285 Views
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1285 Views
Somebody want to hammer?
- 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
1130 Views

*NM*