Active Users:346 Time:19/07/2025 12:52:45 AM
I think I have a plan Isaac Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1806 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 588 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 972 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 938 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1016 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 912 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 942 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 556 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 911 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 580 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 628 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 884 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1163 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 517 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 597 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 564 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 903 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 993 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1032 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 962 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1057 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 856 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 597 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 594 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 917 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1066 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 540 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 932 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 558 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 958 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 912 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1034 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 985 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 905 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1095 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 947 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 997 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 969 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1004 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 826 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 931 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 967 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 889 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 970 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 582 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 531 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 540 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 544 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 929 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 954 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 964 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 972 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 893 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 896 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 890 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 524 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 955 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 927 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 917 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 973 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 943 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 951 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 941 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 898 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 933 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 891 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1069 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1057 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 981 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 855 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 871 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 910 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 857 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 911 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 954 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 822 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 515 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 888 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 963 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 790 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 921 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1008 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 797 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 941 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 848 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 883 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 568 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 922 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 950 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1006 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 945 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 921 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 919 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 555 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 889 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 897 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 544 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 969 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 540 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 913 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 934 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 907 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 880 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 547 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 869 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 559 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 535 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 553 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 504 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 894 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 822 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 551 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 632 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 999 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1052 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 494 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 595 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 856 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 919 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 907 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 905 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 925 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 881 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1004 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 923 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1109 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 941 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 888 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 947 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 906 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 897 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 875 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 898 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 886 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 938 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 945 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 925 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 840 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 967 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 915 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 938 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 981 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 917 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 980 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 531 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 978 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 941 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 916 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 961 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 931 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 518 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1189 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 942 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 935 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 916 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 981 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 867 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 988 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 923 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 819 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 747 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 425 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 812 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1470 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 892 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 971 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 919 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 926 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 964 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 900 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 978 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 898 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 915 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1124 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 843 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1051 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 818 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 812 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 887 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 976 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 928 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 944 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1031 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 882 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 878 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 921 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 953 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 900 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 948 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 989 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 856 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 881 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 942 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 917 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 873 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 939 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 927 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1146 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 572 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 929 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 871 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 578 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 944 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1021 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 970 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 547 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 885 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 532 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 572 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 948 Views

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