Active Users:336 Time:14/07/2025 08:57:40 PM
I think I have a plan Isaac Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1805 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 587 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 971 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 937 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1015 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 911 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 941 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 556 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 911 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 580 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 628 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 883 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1162 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 516 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 597 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 564 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 902 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 993 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1032 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 961 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1056 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 855 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 595 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 593 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 917 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1065 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 539 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 932 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 558 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 958 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 910 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1034 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 985 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 905 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1095 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 947 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 997 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 969 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1004 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 825 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 930 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 966 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 888 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 969 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 581 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 530 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 539 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 543 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 928 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 953 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 963 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 970 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 892 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 895 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 889 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 523 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 954 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 926 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 916 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 972 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 942 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 950 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 940 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 897 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 932 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 890 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1067 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1057 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 980 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 854 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 870 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 909 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 856 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 910 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 952 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 821 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 514 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 887 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 962 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 789 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 920 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1007 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 796 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 939 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 847 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 882 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 567 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 921 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 949 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1005 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 944 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 920 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 918 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 553 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 888 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 896 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 543 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 968 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 539 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 912 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 932 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 906 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 879 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 546 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 868 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 557 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 534 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 552 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 503 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 893 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 821 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 550 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 631 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 998 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1051 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 492 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 594 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 855 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 918 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 906 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 905 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 925 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 880 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1003 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 922 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1109 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 940 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 887 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 946 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 905 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 896 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 874 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 897 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 886 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 937 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 944 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 924 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 839 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 966 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 914 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 937 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 980 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 916 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 979 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 530 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 977 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 940 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 915 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 960 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 930 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 517 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1188 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 941 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 934 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 915 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 980 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 866 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 987 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 922 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 817 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 746 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 424 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 811 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1469 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 891 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 970 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 918 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 925 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 963 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 899 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 977 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 897 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 914 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1124 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 842 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1051 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 817 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 811 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 886 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 975 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 927 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 943 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1030 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 881 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 877 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 920 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 952 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 899 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 947 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 988 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 855 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 880 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 941 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 916 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 872 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 938 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 926 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1145 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 571 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 928 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 870 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 577 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 943 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1020 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 970 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 546 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 884 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 531 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 572 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 947 Views

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