Active Users:207 Time:20/09/2024 10:44:54 PM
I think I have a plan Isaac Send a noteboard - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)


The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.

I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.

If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.

If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.

Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.

I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.

It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example

IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR

Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1683 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 521 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 846 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 796 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 871 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 776 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 807 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 503 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 778 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 497 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 545 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 758 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1021 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 455 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 540 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 508 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 770 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 857 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 895 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 826 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 930 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 712 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 528 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 520 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 792 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 923 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 476 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 809 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 489 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 825 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 775 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 896 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 842 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 777 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 953 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 816 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 872 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 849 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 876 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 704 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 796 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 835 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 739 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 829 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 517 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 469 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 478 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 485 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 779 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 816 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 826 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 831 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 733 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 766 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 745 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 472 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 826 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 793 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 772 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 829 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 803 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 807 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 824 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 755 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 799 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 750 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 929 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 928 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 835 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 716 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 703 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 773 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 721 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 781 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 805 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 693 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 455 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 758 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 802 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 643 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 779 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 868 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 655 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 819 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 745 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 774 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 501 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 780 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 793 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 872 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 810 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 790 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 787 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 489 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 754 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 754 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 479 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 834 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 490 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 783 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 791 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 775 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 757 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 489 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 726 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 496 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 470 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 479 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 446 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 764 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 684 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 492 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 554 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 838 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 904 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 429 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 532 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 715 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 786 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 781 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 794 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 796 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 741 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 834 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 775 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 954 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 811 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 764 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 818 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 774 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 768 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 729 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 760 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 763 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 807 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 794 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 786 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 689 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 833 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 783 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 801 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 826 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 778 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 852 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 470 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 842 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 812 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 793 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 828 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 803 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 451 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1031 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 806 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 794 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 781 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 844 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 731 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 842 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 785 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 690 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 611 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 364 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 677 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1332 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 768 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 834 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 788 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 798 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 826 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 759 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 842 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 764 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 780 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 960 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 739 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 895 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 686 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 683 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 767 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 841 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 791 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 813 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 895 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 757 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 749 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 789 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 823 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 766 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 819 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 857 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 727 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 778 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 808 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 780 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 748 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 784 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 800 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1000 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 514 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 802 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 725 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 516 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 809 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 889 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 810 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 484 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 758 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 472 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 490 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 808 Views

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