I've generally learned to distrust those vibes, what generally happens is that there are always a few cases where you were 'right' and you remember those, but you don't remember all the various wrongs because the game generally forces you to have tons and tons of those anyway. Lower then normal posting is genuinely suspicious though, barring RBIRL, but it's also not a strong lead, but it is a lead, rana and gher both have been fairly quiet, most probably this is because they were genuinely busy, but regardless scum are, IMO, less likely to post when busy because they like to spend more time thinking on what they should say, don't like to kick off quick posts when one little mistake can be lethal, so it's not a strong indicator but it is better than nothing. I suggest though that you wait till we've lynched to make any decisions, that will tend to change things.



Well, you've convinced me



I'm probably going to regret this in the future, but I'd like a win to erase last game and I mod next so at least it can't bite me next game. So, this is a bad idea, for a whole lot of reasons. First, the most common scum role is RBer, so they can probably block your copping, and if they know going in that you are targeting one of them they're more likely to expend the RB then if they see it going on a townie, but that's fairly minor. They can also, if a consensus is a factor, steer the who it's aiming at, and that's a much bigger factor. The second most common scum role after RBer is an immunity to copping or total investigative immunity, we see it in roughly half the games and usually have 3 scum, thus my comment about your copping, even with miller indicating your sane, having a 1 in 6 chance of being wrong, even at random someone you cop right now should be viewed as only 83% likely to be town, compared to the current 8/11 73% pure random value of being town... that's high in a way, you can rule yourself out to be 7/10, 70%, drop DK probably and 6/9 or 67%, still not much better that 83% though...


...but if they have someone who can give a false read on a copping it goes way up, because it's not hard to aim a gun at yourself or your allies when you need to, and when I have such a player on my team I make an effort to draw cop attention to them, can't do too much or they may get lynched instead, but if you can get a cop to aim that investigation at your cop proof scum-buddy, you've practically got victory handed to you. And it would be easier than you think right now, because if they're smart they've already been piling on light suspicion on that player, so a move to press you to cop them under your suggested consensus would be effectively invisible. It is literally the best suggestion I could hope for if I was running a scum team with a cop-proof guy, and that's been roughly half the time in recent games. Now, the next most common role is an extra NK, after that, it's an ability to hit someone with a scum-bomb, a couple games back rana had one, it was every other night use and we agreed not to use it on night 1 just so we could use it on night 2 when we'd have better odds of knowing where the cop was aiming, worked perfectly too, the cop went right where we thought they would, unfortunately the person was a PGO, freak bad luck saved the town from getting totally screwed, mores the pity

So if the scum know where you're going with your copping, and they have one of those abilities, they've got very strong odds of basically turning your role power into a weapon to use on the town. They may not have such an ability, but you have to think about this logically, if they do, then advanced warning of who you're copping aids them greatly, worse though, is come tomorrow if you got a hit on someone, if I were them and you'd announced I'd be saying "Well, Fox told everyone who he was aiming at, even let us have a say in it, the scum were forewarned, and... [if you got a guilty hit] they might have tagged X with a scum-ray, figure its maybe 1 in 3 they have one, basically the same odds of Fox targeting a scummer anyway. And if you got back an innocent hit... "Well, Fox told everyone... they could easily have maneuvered their cop proof guy into position to be copped" and then I'd say "Think about this, they either do or don't have a RBer, if they do, then they should have blocked the copping, but they didn't, that means they either have one but wanted the copping to go through, meaning it's not real, or they don't have a RBer, and if they don't have a RBer then it's probably because they have a cop proof or scum bomb, after all, only one person has died per night so far, and we're role heavy, so they probably have something and it's not a NK, so it's almost definitely cop-proof or scum bomb"

See what I mean? Mind you, I'm not suggesting you pick a name out of the hat, by preference it's better when you find a scummer then prob-town someone, but both are good results and it's preferable to aiming your copping at one or two obvious people anyone can guess, drop off people you feel confident about sure, but don't broadcast who you're aiming at, even if the scum can guess who you'll cop down to two or three people they've got a strong chance of screwing with it if they have that ability, but not enough of one to warrant any strategy like not RBing you so that you can cop someone they want you to cop, and at a minimum that removes some of the pitfalls we have to deal with if you pick the person in advance. Just my opinion obviously but I've some knowledge on how to be a good scummer I think