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Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.

The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.

Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:

1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)

So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.

Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.

So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Day 2: Superstar - 28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM 2387 Views
Current Votes: STEPHEN HAS BEEN LYNCHED - 28/10/2012 03:47:08 PM 1494 Views
Nobody died? *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:22:17 PM 871 Views
Nope *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:33:40 PM 862 Views
Oh, well I guess Yuna is really who she claims to be then. - 28/10/2012 05:24:03 PM 1418 Views
season 4, episode 17 (google is my friend..) *NM* - 28/10/2012 06:58:20 PM 802 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM 864 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM 929 Views
I concur. - 29/10/2012 02:11:38 AM 1497 Views
Re: I concur. - 29/10/2012 09:03:39 PM 1467 Views
So what's the point? - 30/10/2012 02:32:43 AM 1433 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM 1508 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM 1454 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that - 29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM 1333 Views
Oh, right. Sorry, I misread that. *NM* - 29/10/2012 11:34:37 PM 857 Views
I don't think that does work. - 30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM 1606 Views
The Cairhien Game - 30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM 1385 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow . - 30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM 1243 Views
I must say that game crosse my mind - 30/10/2012 09:23:30 AM 1318 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 06:27:32 PM 1473 Views
Interesting results - 29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM 1378 Views
maybe a 4th option? - 29/10/2012 01:20:14 PM 1510 Views
No, I don't think so. - 30/10/2012 02:35:49 AM 1874 Views
It is, but not too likely - 30/10/2012 03:15:31 AM 1303 Views
What now? - 31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM 1358 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages - 31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM 1362 Views
I think Hypocopping would be good idea. *NM* - 31/10/2012 09:36:00 PM 821 Views
You were targeted? - 02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM 1342 Views
Why is that anti-town? - 02/11/2012 04:06:54 PM 1388 Views
Okay then. - 02/11/2012 05:14:18 PM 1288 Views
All kinds of RBIRL - 01/11/2012 04:09:42 AM 1404 Views
We understand - 01/11/2012 08:25:34 AM 1454 Views
Sorry for disappearing, kinda RBIRL - 02/11/2012 12:06:09 AM 1402 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2] - 02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM 1477 Views
Darth_Katie - not-guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 04:13:07 PM 881 Views
Re: Hypocopping [TABLE] - 02/11/2012 04:46:44 PM 1414 Views
Artsapat - guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:52:59 PM 1320 Views
Yunalesca - Guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:06:43 PM 910 Views
Isaac - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:53:54 PM 943 Views
? - not guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 09:21:10 PM 919 Views
Tagia - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:04:51 PM 905 Views
Artsapat - Guilty *NM* - 03/11/2012 05:06:19 AM 866 Views
? - Guilty *NM* - 04/11/2012 03:08:31 AM 882 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday. - 05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM 1584 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours... - 06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM 1523 Views
I'm not sure if I understand this correctly... - 06/11/2012 07:47:06 AM 1379 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM 1441 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM 1562 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases. - 07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM 1426 Views
I still haven't heard the case - 08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM 1408 Views
One of them was the only non-human in a monster-hunting theme. - 13/11/2012 06:41:30 PM 1339 Views
Oh, I assumed there was more - 13/11/2012 07:01:54 PM 1275 Views
Yuna's role - 06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM 1394 Views
If that is the case, you just made a major blunder. - 06/11/2012 11:41:03 AM 1324 Views
... - 06/11/2012 06:13:11 PM 1278 Views
*facepalm* - 06/11/2012 04:26:23 PM 1302 Views
... what? *NM* - 06/11/2012 05:33:08 PM 786 Views
What ... ? - 07/11/2012 06:23:33 AM 1712 Views
Re: What ... ? - 07/11/2012 09:11:04 AM 1274 Views
Most important question! - 07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM 1316 Views
Indeed, I noticed that - 07/11/2012 02:41:37 PM 1371 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM 788 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM* - 08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM 896 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM* - 08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM 984 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message. - 08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM 1544 Views
I did...?? - 10/11/2012 03:00:19 PM 1237 Views
This one? - 13/11/2012 01:48:19 AM 1250 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon - 07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM 1360 Views
really sorry *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:17:16 PM 841 Views
Well to me... - 08/11/2012 11:03:58 AM 1298 Views
I don't see any reason you would need to roleclaim. - 08/11/2012 05:45:53 PM 1393 Views
ok - 08/11/2012 10:00:35 PM 1413 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha! - 09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM 1289 Views
No worries man. - 09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM 1357 Views
Nothing too bad... - 09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM 1265 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM* - 09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM 865 Views
Sure, why not. *NM* - 09/11/2012 11:18:47 PM 898 Views
I found Artsapat Innocent *NM* - 10/11/2012 05:23:20 PM 890 Views
RBIRL - 11/11/2012 09:06:16 AM 1351 Views
So now what? *NM* - 11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM 742 Views
Can I ask for reasons...? - 11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM 1447 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got, - 11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM 1421 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games.... - 13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM 1259 Views
Not to 50/50 randomize them, but definitely ot randomize them - 13/11/2012 07:14:08 PM 1365 Views
Ahhh very true *NM* - 13/11/2012 08:42:39 PM 806 Views
Re: So now what? - 12/11/2012 06:46:50 PM 1371 Views
I agree - 12/11/2012 11:11:23 PM 1382 Views
Okay I'll respond to it above *NM* - 13/11/2012 01:44:15 AM 748 Views
Re: So now what? - 13/11/2012 05:18:34 PM 1364 Views
RBIRL until next Monday. - 13/11/2012 03:15:46 AM 1704 Views
*cough cough* - 13/11/2012 03:45:45 PM 1244 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:31:26 PM 647 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:51:11 PM 833 Views
Well... - 13/11/2012 07:16:36 PM 1301 Views
Silly Isaac, of course it does. *NM* - 14/11/2012 07:30:42 PM 928 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM 1442 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 14/11/2012 11:04:44 AM 1337 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 16/11/2012 11:57:26 PM 1394 Views
I should point out... - 14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM 1403 Views
Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 05:49:45 PM 1419 Views
Re: Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 09:38:53 PM 1380 Views
RBIRL for a day or so - 15/11/2012 01:47:20 AM 1304 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM* - 18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM 848 Views
Well, you already know my favourite . *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM 827 Views
Someone else *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM 883 Views
Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM 1349 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 09:58:29 AM 1293 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 02:45:21 PM 1418 Views
sounds like a plan *NM* - 18/11/2012 08:37:24 AM 960 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM 1332 Views
I think it is pretty safe to say.... - 18/11/2012 02:13:12 PM 1355 Views
Yuna is probably not mafia. - 18/11/2012 07:35:44 PM 1199 Views
Sorry for off-radaring for a few days. - 18/11/2012 10:08:57 PM 1375 Views
for myself - 19/11/2012 09:44:03 AM 1242 Views
Re: for myself - 19/11/2012 11:27:04 AM 1450 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM 1223 Views
time to make a choice - 19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM 1315 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself? - 19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM 1295 Views
I concur. - 20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM 1365 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM 1368 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM 1306 Views
again - 20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM 1309 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions... - 20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM 1266 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM* - 20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM 988 Views
what? why? *NM* - 21/11/2012 12:47:18 AM 785 Views
You sound like a cult leader to me *NM* - 21/11/2012 02:25:52 AM 839 Views
Re: again - 21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM 1414 Views
clarification - 21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM 1330 Views
Well, yeah... - 21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM 1246 Views
Umm...Idea. - 22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM 1341 Views
I've considered that... - 22/11/2012 05:27:24 AM 1246 Views
Yes I realized that as well... *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:03:15 PM 830 Views
I think I;m happy to vote for yuna right now. - 22/11/2012 02:35:09 AM 1381 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM 876 Views
what part of 'i have no powers of recruitment' don't you get? - 22/11/2012 10:24:27 AM 1348 Views
The... - 22/11/2012 01:04:05 PM 1325 Views
Re: The... - 22/11/2012 01:36:44 PM 1335 Views
I'm just throwing this out there. - 18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM 1441 Views
True *NM* - 19/11/2012 12:10:04 AM 889 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea. - 19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM 1236 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM 818 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone? - 20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM 1314 Views
Serial killer and cult leader? - 20/11/2012 08:44:21 PM 1365 Views
RBIRL - 22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM 1357 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM* - 22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM 763 Views
Right... *NM* - 25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM 805 Views
Left... *NM* - 25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM 881 Views
Ah someone lives! - 25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM 1312 Views
Well, so do I? - 26/11/2012 08:26:55 AM 1350 Views
I do live too.. - 26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM 1311 Views
Where did you vote? - 26/11/2012 07:04:22 PM 1323 Views
*cough* Sorry about that. It's there now. *NM* - 26/11/2012 08:01:29 PM 829 Views
Unvote - 26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM 1366 Views
But that'd make three scum... - 26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM 1329 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen? - 26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM 1589 Views
Sure, why not. - 26/11/2012 11:39:02 PM 1315 Views
Sure me too *NM* - 27/11/2012 03:23:42 AM 834 Views
Sounds like a plan. *NM* - 27/11/2012 05:39:17 AM 845 Views
I concur.. *NM* - 28/11/2012 09:24:35 AM 825 Views
Sorry, I've been ill. - 28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM 1354 Views
Feeling better? *NM* - 29/11/2012 01:00:52 AM 832 Views
I'm mostly recovered. - 29/11/2012 01:37:50 AM 1493 Views
That's a bold claim. - 29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM 1264 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented. - 29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM 1477 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM 1471 Views
Vote: Stephen - 30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM 1335 Views
Well, I guess I'm technically lynched. - 30/11/2012 01:53:13 PM 1510 Views
Ouch. - 30/11/2012 04:38:45 PM 1327 Views
That makes quite alot sense actually. Vote:Stephen *NM* - 30/11/2012 09:01:01 AM 827 Views
back from Minecon...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *NM* - 26/11/2012 07:16:28 PM 811 Views
Twilight - 30/11/2012 03:58:02 PM 1437 Views
Day 3 should be starting within a day or two *NM* - 05/12/2012 03:36:38 PM 815 Views
...and you expect still to end it before X-mas ^^ *NM* - 05/12/2012 06:47:57 PM 874 Views

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