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Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.

The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.

Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:

1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)

So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.

Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.

So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Day 2: Superstar - 28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM 2457 Views
Current Votes: STEPHEN HAS BEEN LYNCHED - 28/10/2012 03:47:08 PM 1555 Views
Nobody died? *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:22:17 PM 896 Views
Nope *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:33:40 PM 890 Views
Oh, well I guess Yuna is really who she claims to be then. - 28/10/2012 05:24:03 PM 1479 Views
season 4, episode 17 (google is my friend..) *NM* - 28/10/2012 06:58:20 PM 831 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM 889 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM 954 Views
I concur. - 29/10/2012 02:11:38 AM 1555 Views
Re: I concur. - 29/10/2012 09:03:39 PM 1540 Views
So what's the point? - 30/10/2012 02:32:43 AM 1496 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM 1567 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM 1510 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that - 29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM 1396 Views
Oh, right. Sorry, I misread that. *NM* - 29/10/2012 11:34:37 PM 888 Views
I don't think that does work. - 30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM 1680 Views
The Cairhien Game - 30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM 1451 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow . - 30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM 1305 Views
I must say that game crosse my mind - 30/10/2012 09:23:30 AM 1373 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 06:27:32 PM 1536 Views
Interesting results - 29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM 1437 Views
maybe a 4th option? - 29/10/2012 01:20:14 PM 1570 Views
No, I don't think so. - 30/10/2012 02:35:49 AM 1955 Views
It is, but not too likely - 30/10/2012 03:15:31 AM 1364 Views
What now? - 31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM 1416 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages - 31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM 1408 Views
I think Hypocopping would be good idea. *NM* - 31/10/2012 09:36:00 PM 842 Views
You were targeted? - 02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM 1397 Views
Why is that anti-town? - 02/11/2012 04:06:54 PM 1453 Views
Okay then. - 02/11/2012 05:14:18 PM 1349 Views
All kinds of RBIRL - 01/11/2012 04:09:42 AM 1460 Views
We understand - 01/11/2012 08:25:34 AM 1502 Views
Sorry for disappearing, kinda RBIRL - 02/11/2012 12:06:09 AM 1473 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2] - 02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM 1552 Views
Darth_Katie - not-guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 04:13:07 PM 908 Views
Re: Hypocopping [TABLE] - 02/11/2012 04:46:44 PM 1467 Views
Artsapat - guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:52:59 PM 1389 Views
Yunalesca - Guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:06:43 PM 949 Views
Isaac - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:53:54 PM 970 Views
? - not guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 09:21:10 PM 947 Views
Tagia - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:04:51 PM 938 Views
Artsapat - Guilty *NM* - 03/11/2012 05:06:19 AM 893 Views
? - Guilty *NM* - 04/11/2012 03:08:31 AM 906 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday. - 05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM 1665 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours... - 06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM 1585 Views
I'm not sure if I understand this correctly... - 06/11/2012 07:47:06 AM 1447 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM 1488 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM 1622 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases. - 07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM 1484 Views
I still haven't heard the case - 08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM 1463 Views
One of them was the only non-human in a monster-hunting theme. - 13/11/2012 06:41:30 PM 1406 Views
Oh, I assumed there was more - 13/11/2012 07:01:54 PM 1356 Views
Yuna's role - 06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM 1455 Views
If that is the case, you just made a major blunder. - 06/11/2012 11:41:03 AM 1382 Views
... - 06/11/2012 06:13:11 PM 1336 Views
*facepalm* - 06/11/2012 04:26:23 PM 1361 Views
... what? *NM* - 06/11/2012 05:33:08 PM 810 Views
What ... ? - 07/11/2012 06:23:33 AM 1781 Views
Re: What ... ? - 07/11/2012 09:11:04 AM 1327 Views
Most important question! - 07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM 1384 Views
Indeed, I noticed that - 07/11/2012 02:41:37 PM 1440 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM 817 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM* - 08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM 924 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM* - 08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM 1021 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message. - 08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM 1594 Views
I did...?? - 10/11/2012 03:00:19 PM 1289 Views
This one? - 13/11/2012 01:48:19 AM 1301 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon - 07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM 1413 Views
really sorry *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:17:16 PM 871 Views
Well to me... - 08/11/2012 11:03:58 AM 1367 Views
I don't see any reason you would need to roleclaim. - 08/11/2012 05:45:53 PM 1452 Views
ok - 08/11/2012 10:00:35 PM 1464 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha! - 09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM 1350 Views
No worries man. - 09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM 1439 Views
Nothing too bad... - 09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM 1320 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM* - 09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM 893 Views
Sure, why not. *NM* - 09/11/2012 11:18:47 PM 922 Views
I found Artsapat Innocent *NM* - 10/11/2012 05:23:20 PM 918 Views
RBIRL - 11/11/2012 09:06:16 AM 1413 Views
So now what? *NM* - 11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM 772 Views
Can I ask for reasons...? - 11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM 1508 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got, - 11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM 1474 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games.... - 13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM 1324 Views
Not to 50/50 randomize them, but definitely ot randomize them - 13/11/2012 07:14:08 PM 1422 Views
Ahhh very true *NM* - 13/11/2012 08:42:39 PM 840 Views
Re: So now what? - 12/11/2012 06:46:50 PM 1433 Views
I agree - 12/11/2012 11:11:23 PM 1451 Views
Okay I'll respond to it above *NM* - 13/11/2012 01:44:15 AM 776 Views
Re: So now what? - 13/11/2012 05:18:34 PM 1414 Views
RBIRL until next Monday. - 13/11/2012 03:15:46 AM 1777 Views
*cough cough* - 13/11/2012 03:45:45 PM 1307 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:31:26 PM 676 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:51:11 PM 863 Views
Well... - 13/11/2012 07:16:36 PM 1350 Views
Silly Isaac, of course it does. *NM* - 14/11/2012 07:30:42 PM 958 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM 1491 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 14/11/2012 11:04:44 AM 1400 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 16/11/2012 11:57:26 PM 1447 Views
I should point out... - 14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM 1461 Views
Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 05:49:45 PM 1485 Views
Re: Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 09:38:53 PM 1437 Views
RBIRL for a day or so - 15/11/2012 01:47:20 AM 1373 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM* - 18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM 872 Views
Well, you already know my favourite . *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM 855 Views
Someone else *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM 916 Views
Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM 1402 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 09:58:29 AM 1353 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 02:45:21 PM 1469 Views
sounds like a plan *NM* - 18/11/2012 08:37:24 AM 987 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM 1385 Views
I think it is pretty safe to say.... - 18/11/2012 02:13:12 PM 1417 Views
Yuna is probably not mafia. - 18/11/2012 07:35:44 PM 1265 Views
Sorry for off-radaring for a few days. - 18/11/2012 10:08:57 PM 1442 Views
for myself - 19/11/2012 09:44:03 AM 1289 Views
Re: for myself - 19/11/2012 11:27:04 AM 1503 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM 1273 Views
time to make a choice - 19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM 1367 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself? - 19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM 1353 Views
I concur. - 20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM 1430 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM 1426 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM 1350 Views
again - 20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM 1359 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions... - 20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM 1329 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM* - 20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM 1015 Views
what? why? *NM* - 21/11/2012 12:47:18 AM 817 Views
You sound like a cult leader to me *NM* - 21/11/2012 02:25:52 AM 862 Views
Re: again - 21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM 1471 Views
clarification - 21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM 1394 Views
Well, yeah... - 21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM 1299 Views
Umm...Idea. - 22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM 1386 Views
I've considered that... - 22/11/2012 05:27:24 AM 1312 Views
Yes I realized that as well... *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:03:15 PM 861 Views
I think I;m happy to vote for yuna right now. - 22/11/2012 02:35:09 AM 1443 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM 902 Views
what part of 'i have no powers of recruitment' don't you get? - 22/11/2012 10:24:27 AM 1402 Views
The... - 22/11/2012 01:04:05 PM 1425 Views
Re: The... - 22/11/2012 01:36:44 PM 1398 Views
I'm just throwing this out there. - 18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM 1494 Views
True *NM* - 19/11/2012 12:10:04 AM 909 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea. - 19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM 1280 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM 843 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone? - 20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM 1363 Views
Serial killer and cult leader? - 20/11/2012 08:44:21 PM 1421 Views
RBIRL - 22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM 1412 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM* - 22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM 790 Views
Right... *NM* - 25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM 832 Views
Left... *NM* - 25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM 910 Views
Ah someone lives! - 25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM 1364 Views
Well, so do I? - 26/11/2012 08:26:55 AM 1414 Views
I do live too.. - 26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM 1378 Views
Where did you vote? - 26/11/2012 07:04:22 PM 1371 Views
*cough* Sorry about that. It's there now. *NM* - 26/11/2012 08:01:29 PM 854 Views
Unvote - 26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM 1422 Views
But that'd make three scum... - 26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM 1393 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen? - 26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM 1646 Views
Sure, why not. - 26/11/2012 11:39:02 PM 1367 Views
Sure me too *NM* - 27/11/2012 03:23:42 AM 862 Views
Sounds like a plan. *NM* - 27/11/2012 05:39:17 AM 867 Views
I concur.. *NM* - 28/11/2012 09:24:35 AM 854 Views
Sorry, I've been ill. - 28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM 1419 Views
Feeling better? *NM* - 29/11/2012 01:00:52 AM 856 Views
I'm mostly recovered. - 29/11/2012 01:37:50 AM 1552 Views
That's a bold claim. - 29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM 1327 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented. - 29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM 1530 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM 1533 Views
Vote: Stephen - 30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM 1389 Views
Well, I guess I'm technically lynched. - 30/11/2012 01:53:13 PM 1573 Views
Ouch. - 30/11/2012 04:38:45 PM 1373 Views
That makes quite alot sense actually. Vote:Stephen *NM* - 30/11/2012 09:01:01 AM 853 Views
back from Minecon...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *NM* - 26/11/2012 07:16:28 PM 838 Views
Twilight - 30/11/2012 03:58:02 PM 1500 Views
Day 3 should be starting within a day or two *NM* - 05/12/2012 03:36:38 PM 844 Views
...and you expect still to end it before X-mas ^^ *NM* - 05/12/2012 06:47:57 PM 897 Views

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