Since this comes up, you can not have a game that is just town vs cult. The DFs achieve victory by killing people off, a cult by conversion. A DF kills a townie, a cult gets more by conversion, they turn someone into a lynch voter for them too, while keeping their effective NK by conversion. A cult therefore only is viable with a DF element, since cults lose the converter when they nominate a DF unknowingly for conversion.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
- 07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
2385 Views
Interesting turn of events.
- 07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
1010 Views
It would matter which it was...
- 08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
840 Views
First: Well done, doc/roleblocker. Second: Think we have a cult?
- 08/11/2009 07:57:48 AM
1074 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
- 08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
953 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
1046 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
1101 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
- 08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
1104 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
416 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
- 09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
998 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
- 09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
994 Views
What if we have both?
- 09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
891 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
- 09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
946 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
475 Views
But is he innocent or guilty?
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
488 Views
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
488 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
461 Views
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
461 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
- 09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
1087 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
- 09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
491 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
- 10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
522 Views
* found
- 10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
965 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
945 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
967 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
- 10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
1088 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
- 10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
494 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here.
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
562 Views
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
562 Views
Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
963 Views
Re: Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
972 Views
So you're saying that
- 10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
1171 Views
Forget about it
- 10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
972 Views
Got new password, all is well
- 10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
1034 Views
So, what next?
- 11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
875 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
869 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
976 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
- 11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
1001 Views
And with no dead people...
- 11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
885 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
- 11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
1077 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
- 12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
1104 Views
I guess.
- 12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
985 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
- 12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
972 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
553 Views
Questions about the hypocop
- 12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
1246 Views
I see nothing wrong.
- 12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
982 Views
It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
895 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
1115 Views
Okay.
- 13/11/2009 02:10:21 AM
1139 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
- 13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
1047 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
- 13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
1004 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
911 Views
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
911 Views
Actually...
- 13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
998 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
- 13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
949 Views
It seems to me
- 13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
937 Views
Well, I did notice that...
- 13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
1126 Views
While that's true...
- 13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
1054 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
- 13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
1122 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
539 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
- 13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
903 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
441 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
- 14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
909 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
614 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
- 14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
1056 Views
By the way...
- 13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
1025 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
988 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
936 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
- 13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
1055 Views
Question
- 13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
1144 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
- 13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
1067 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
- 13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
1085 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
- 13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
917 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
1086 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
1033 Views
I'm getting antsy
- 15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
1026 Views
Why Ranagrande?
- 15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
891 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
970 Views
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
970 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
- 15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
1110 Views
All right
- 15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
962 Views
It's up now.
- 15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
1029 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
- 16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
943 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
- 16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
1023 Views
Vote Table
- 15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
1055 Views
I think you're right
- 15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
1127 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
- 15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
1087 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
- 15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
1209 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
- 17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
607 Views
Quick defense
- 16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
1051 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
- 16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
930 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
- 16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
1069 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
- 16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
1093 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
- 17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
1001 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
- 17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
1046 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
- 17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
1079 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
- 17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
1020 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
- 17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
959 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
- 17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
1030 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
- 17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
1003 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
- 17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
1194 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
- 18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
1109 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
- 18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
910 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
- 18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
924 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
- 18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
946 Views
That's messed up
- 18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
896 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
- 18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
964 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
- 18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
1028 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
- 17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
1092 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
985 Views
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
985 Views
It's like politics.
- 17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
1079 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
915 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
931 Views
No...
- 18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
945 Views
actually
- 18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
910 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
- 18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
1055 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
- 18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
1206 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
- 17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
1065 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
- 17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
1063 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
- 15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
861 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
- 16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
1068 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
- 16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
1082 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
- 16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
990 Views
Didn't pass the test.
- 18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
896 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
539 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
493 Views
Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
1035 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
1037 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
980 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
971 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
1076 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
- 18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
1159 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
- 18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
1059 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
- 19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
940 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
- 19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
1354 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
- 19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
1188 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
- 19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
1081 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
- 19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
1154 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
- 19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
1109 Views
Fair enough
- 19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
1125 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
- 19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
1100 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
- 19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
1027 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
1116 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
- 20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
970 Views
I want to be in that band.
- 20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
939 Views
!!!
- 20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
922 Views
YES.
- 20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
1315 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
- 20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
952 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
- 19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
1011 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
- 19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
978 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
1161 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
- 19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
495 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
- 20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
926 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
- 20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
1152 Views
Blackout
- 20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
1284 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
- 21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
1272 Views


Better luck next time!
*NM*