I don't really see how we're going to be able to come to a quick decision.
Darth_Katie Send a noteboard - 09/03/2010 06:19:11 AM
I don't want to bother wasting anytime over beet. There were only two people to blame for his death, himself and the RBer. He talked himself into that lynch, then his RC - I still think he was lying about not realizing it was important, I don't know, it was so blatantly false no one believed it and we shouldn't have, but we gave him a chance for everyone to claim RB, we even listed in detail why the RBer would be safe from NK and lynch. I do not understand the reasoning there, it was a surefire way to become prob-town, we wouldn't have lynched them, even if we didn't believe it and still went with beet then they'd be clear now, so their reasoning surprises me. Regardless, we must assume everyone who voted for beet, excluding the RBer if they were one which I doubt, did it because they thought he was non-town, even the DFs and or SK if they voted probably thought so, so we won't get very far examining motives on that score.
'cause what you're basically saying here is that we're not going to get any information from Beet's lynch. Where are we supposed to get stuff to work with then? I mean, that's about all we talked about Yesterday in some form or the other. I agree that it's not very clear-cut at all and there are a lot of ifs and uncertainties, but idk if we can just dismiss it outright. At the very least, we can probably be sure that at least a few DFs took part. Granted, I am not really sure how far that can get us, but there it is.
One bizarre possibility worth raising is that the RBer might be a DF, and that beet was his backup, winning with the town unless he died then becoming the DF RBer. This seems ridiculous but would explain the RBers silence, and it considering our sheer number of implied roles I have to assume the DF side is a bit up-gunned themselves.
I was thinking this too when I was trying to come up with reasons why the RBer wouldn't want to come forward. But it doesn't make much sense for there to be an innocent back-up RBer if the original RBer is scum. Idk, it's a really weird situation. I'd like to think that Gher isn't playing enormous mind games with us by including deputies for roles that don't actually exist, but I could be wrong. He could really be that mean.
Okay, our deaths. Hobo and Hieshyn. A mason and a vanilla. This means are confirmed list of roles thus far is:
Backup Cop 1x
Backup Roleblocker 1x
Doctor 1x
Mason 1x
Miller 1x
Vanilla 1x
We really can't be sure there even is a cop, a roleblocker, or another mason as any of these may be red-herrings. However, for the moment let's assume their are 10 townies and that the roles aren't red herrings.
The other Mason
The Cop
The Roleblocker
A backup doc
It seems plausible we'd have a back up doc, now, note how that puts us at ten, and I think it's unlikely we have more then 10 townies with all these roles. Could we have more roles or vanillas? Yes, absolutely. The other end of that mason bond could be a vanilla mason, or it could be a DF or a player role. Let's not jump to conclude anything there, Gher is unlikely to include masons in the game unaware of their past usage so that other mason might be multiple masons, might be vanilla, role, DF, SK, etc. I could easily see a backup role being a mason, we also may not have a backup doc, that may simply be wishful thinking with the backups on cop and Rber, but while a backup cop serves a pro-town purpose, frankly a town RBer does not and a back up certainly didn't, and I doubt Gher did not realize their weaknesses anymore then the miller. So we could have other roles, other vanillas, etc. I'm leery of mass claims at this point, I suppose we should go ahead and hypocop. I'm not sure what to advise on that. There's no need to huddle around the people suggested yesterday, obviously, so you should pick people you'd have been inclined to investigate, just make sure not to dis-include Hobo or Hieshyn and if you list them than list them innocent. Obviously don't hypocop someone you've already hypocopped. Probably determine guilt as straight 50/50 on everyone else, after all we probably are 4 town 4 baddie at the moment. Which more or less confirms we have a third faction, not a vig or a mafia don. We could be 4-4 town vs DF with a vig but not likely. None of our four NKs have been suspicious so I can't see a vig whacking them, and otherwise the game would be over.
I agree we shouldn't mass claim Today. If there is a Doc and especially a Cop still hanging around (and there almost certainly is a Cop, at least), then we want to give them at least another Night to work their magic. With likely such a high ratio of scum to townies, they're more likely than not to hit on a Mafia Tonight.
So we should assume we only have 4 townies left and most of those will be mason, roled mason, RBer, backup doc, and cop but let's not discount the possibility of additional vanillas or roles, nor automatically assume our mason is a DF. THe good news is, with a SK, cult, whatever running around we have less to fear from NKs. Half the surviving players are non-town, probably, so tonights NKs and todays lynch are much more likely to hit a bad guy. We need to basically assist the bad guys find the good guys so they can kill them and not us along with avoiding another mislynch. So basically our goal today is to try to prob-town people and hope random lynch and NK on the remainder will net some non-town.
I should say, I don't want to muck up much today, I see no reason for Day 3 to take more than a week or so, I prefer out more blitz-oriented game anyway.
I don't want to drag this Day out longer than necessary either, but right now I think we are working with some very limited information. If I had to pick one person right now who looked the most suspicious to me, just from reviewing the events of the Day, it would be Fox and Ravens. Just a lot of really coincidental stuff that doesn't really add up all that well. I know that I said Yesterday that I thought he was probably Town, but now that I go back and look at it, a lot of his actions could be cast in a more sinister light. One of the big things from Yesterday was that he was so adamant in his accusation against Ranagrande despite the lack of evidence. Surely, I said, no DF would ever be so silly in their pursuit of a Townie who had nothing on them? But perhaps Fox simply ended up sticking with Ranagrande so long after it was pointed out the case was non-existent because he didn't want to be accused of flip-flopping. He'd already been accused of flip-flopping in the case of Hieshyn, so perhaps he didn't want to push his luck and just stuck with the "I'm a Townie stubbornly following my intuition" model. He did switch his vote from Ranagrande to Beet at the end once it became obvious that his target of choice wasn't going to be lynched. Now there's something to be said for pragmatism, but still. Facts are facts. Of course, anything can be construed into scummy behavior; I'm just saying this is what stuck out to me when I was doing the Vote Table. What do you all think?
Also, I can appreciate how under the circumstances the RBer and the mason might be leery of claiming, but it is necessary and you will have to eventually so better to do it sooner than later.
Insert theme music here.
Rafo Mafia 4 Day 3 has ended
- 08/03/2010 06:20:26 PM
2011 Views
Okay, so it seems pretty clear that we have a third-party
- 08/03/2010 08:31:17 PM
755 Views
Man, I'm saddled with that job forever, aren't I?
- 08/03/2010 09:58:50 PM
720 Views
Whoops, kinda forgot Hobo died.
- 09/03/2010 01:22:27 AM
867 Views
- 09/03/2010 01:22:27 AM
867 Views
That's just bad manners, tsk tsk, you kill him, then you forget him, eh?
*NM*
- 09/03/2010 01:27:38 AM
428 Views
*NM*
- 09/03/2010 01:27:38 AM
428 Views
What's that now? Kronin killed Hobo?
- 09/03/2010 03:18:54 AM
709 Views
- 09/03/2010 03:18:54 AM
709 Views
Yes, I have incontrovertible proof that Kronin killed Hobo with a Candlestick in the Conservatory
- 09/03/2010 03:34:51 AM
741 Views
- 09/03/2010 03:34:51 AM
741 Views
Let's discuss our new info
- 09/03/2010 01:26:40 AM
810 Views
I don't really see how we're going to be able to come to a quick decision.
- 09/03/2010 06:19:11 AM
920 Views
Vote Record (Table)
- 09/03/2010 05:50:26 AM
876 Views
The Vote Record makes Fox seem very suspicious.
- 09/03/2010 12:20:23 PM
722 Views
I suppose so
- 09/03/2010 06:56:02 PM
769 Views
Good point.
- 09/03/2010 07:32:56 PM
837 Views
Re: Good point.
- 09/03/2010 08:15:32 PM
910 Views
Re: Hobo
- 12/03/2010 04:52:47 AM
844 Views
Pulling a Gher?
- 12/03/2010 05:20:27 AM
652 Views
There were like three times in a row that Gher tried to hammer
- 12/03/2010 01:27:31 PM
722 Views
I'm sorry. RBIRL
- 10/03/2010 07:57:15 AM
899 Views
*Taps on the glass*
- 11/03/2010 11:23:35 PM
873 Views
I'm thinking the same thing... *NM*
- 11/03/2010 11:36:39 PM
402 Views
Well, I was going to wait for our last Hypocop, but...
- 12/03/2010 01:24:32 AM
818 Views
Have I really?
- 12/03/2010 02:53:33 AM
758 Views
EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 02:55:16 AM
754 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 03:47:04 AM
698 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 04:04:40 AM
637 Views
Obvious how so? *NM*
- 12/03/2010 04:17:55 AM
498 Views
Well, something like what I did yesterday with the trap.
- 12/03/2010 04:30:47 AM
645 Views
A cop might do something like that.
- 12/03/2010 04:56:42 AM
822 Views
I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 05:27:05 AM
700 Views
Re: I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 01:23:29 PM
762 Views
Re: I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 05:49:05 PM
809 Views
Hrm...
- 12/03/2010 08:05:29 PM
648 Views
Well, a DF working alone would just be a Serial Killer.
- 12/03/2010 08:19:02 PM
848 Views
well of course there are vanillas
- 13/03/2010 12:36:10 AM
719 Views
You all may have noticed...
- 14/03/2010 12:01:11 AM
734 Views
Re: You all may have noticed...
- 14/03/2010 01:49:24 AM
774 Views
On F-T....
- 14/03/2010 03:26:04 AM
660 Views
Re: On F-T....
- 14/03/2010 04:01:09 AM
816 Views
I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 04:07:09 AM
605 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 04:27:54 AM
807 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 01:32:16 PM
832 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 02:24:03 PM
814 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 02:25:20 PM
816 Views
I like Tank-f
- 15/03/2010 08:29:39 PM
633 Views
Eh, tank factions sounds better I think.
- 15/03/2010 08:33:38 PM
657 Views
Re: Eh, tank factions sounds better I think.
- 15/03/2010 08:35:42 PM
706 Views
Back
- 14/03/2010 12:07:58 PM
767 Views
On the subject of inactivity...
- 14/03/2010 01:31:40 PM
808 Views
I use my browser's 'Find' function
- 15/03/2010 03:54:48 PM
944 Views
The site's 'search' function is faster, but a bit limited
- 15/03/2010 05:43:11 PM
701 Views
Eh, for a quick look at how the Day's going, 'Find' works well.
- 15/03/2010 08:18:40 PM
963 Views
Re: Eh, for a quick look at how the Day's going, 'Find' works well.
- 15/03/2010 08:28:07 PM
924 Views
Are we sure we don't want a mass role-claim?
- 14/03/2010 11:55:02 PM
682 Views
Well, it's probably going to come to that before the end of the day
- 15/03/2010 12:29:59 AM
835 Views
So, are you saying I should RC next since fist already did? *NM*
- 15/03/2010 03:05:45 PM
355 Views
Personally I think he jumped the gun.
- 15/03/2010 03:11:35 PM
814 Views
He was a little quick on this one
- 15/03/2010 07:04:53 PM
680 Views
I kind of like this idea.
- 15/03/2010 08:28:05 PM
718 Views
Re: I kind of like this idea.
- 15/03/2010 08:36:09 PM
675 Views
I agree Ranagrande should claim next.
- 15/03/2010 08:45:14 PM
854 Views
Basically, he did jump the gun there but...
- 15/03/2010 05:44:56 PM
758 Views
Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 07:44:45 PM
748 Views
Whoops! Wrong link!
- 15/03/2010 07:46:15 PM
638 Views
I completely believe you.
- 15/03/2010 08:08:04 PM
678 Views
Seems pretty trustworthy to me too.
- 15/03/2010 08:21:30 PM
656 Views
Re: Seems pretty trustworthy to me too.
- 15/03/2010 08:31:08 PM
842 Views
I'd have to agree
- 15/03/2010 08:43:26 PM
736 Views
Re: I'd have to agree
- 15/03/2010 09:21:42 PM
859 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 08:03:11 PM
668 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:27:21 PM
673 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:48:45 PM
689 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:58:37 PM
675 Views
We have a vigilante? God, he must suck.
- 15/03/2010 10:13:33 PM
605 Views
Re: We have a vigilante? God, he must suck.
- 15/03/2010 10:16:58 PM
661 Views
You know?
- 15/03/2010 10:20:10 PM
637 Views
Lol I saw the youtube address and thought you were trying to Rickroll us.
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 08:32:01 PM
384 Views
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 08:32:01 PM
384 Views
It's link to a video of finnish comedian, I linked it to my friend I was having chat with
- 15/03/2010 09:30:15 PM
630 Views
My role-claim, and a few other thoughts
- 15/03/2010 10:57:55 PM
814 Views
Re: My role-claim, and a few other thoughts
- 16/03/2010 01:53:01 AM
855 Views
LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:24:19 AM
649 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:32:30 AM
745 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:39:44 AM
638 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:54:04 AM
838 Views
Let's NOT kill Bergioyn.
- 16/03/2010 02:59:17 AM
721 Views
Re: Let's NOT kill Bergioyn.
- 16/03/2010 03:08:10 AM
858 Views
I am not making an incorrect reference.
- 16/03/2010 03:12:02 AM
682 Views
Good
- 16/03/2010 03:20:23 AM
780 Views
EBWOP
- 16/03/2010 03:21:08 AM
653 Views
Another thing
- 16/03/2010 03:25:34 AM
840 Views
I'm not Arsonist, so there shouldn't be any neutralization message.
- 16/03/2010 07:01:10 AM
789 Views
Something is wrong here
- 16/03/2010 03:22:47 AM
782 Views
Oh, and Isaac
- 15/03/2010 08:38:08 PM
728 Views
Re: Oh, and Isaac
- 15/03/2010 11:22:21 PM
683 Views
LOL, there was like this massive bomb of posts and now... silence
- 16/03/2010 12:55:34 AM
813 Views
Well for starters I decided maybe I ought to work on my project that's due tomorrow.
- 16/03/2010 02:01:11 AM
801 Views
- 16/03/2010 02:01:11 AM
801 Views
Okay, here ya are
- 15/03/2010 11:58:14 PM
759 Views
Re: Okay, here ya are
- 16/03/2010 07:12:31 AM
702 Views
Re: Okay, here ya are
- 16/03/2010 08:01:24 AM
785 Views
Wait, what?
- 16/03/2010 08:11:54 AM
641 Views
Re: Wait, what?
- 16/03/2010 05:00:39 PM
746 Views
Role Claims (Table)
- 15/03/2010 10:15:59 PM
848 Views
Re: Role Claims (Table) *NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:16:14 PM
383 Views
Whoops, replied instead of editing. *NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:16:29 PM
355 Views
You forgot mine. I calimed VT first, after all.
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:26:27 PM
414 Views
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:26:27 PM
414 Views
Okay, White Flame has claimed, and it seems decently legit.
- 16/03/2010 02:09:50 AM
828 Views
So many RC's, well mine...
- 16/03/2010 02:29:01 AM
847 Views
Now this is an interesting place we have reached, isn't it?
- 16/03/2010 03:25:19 AM
846 Views
Re: Now this is an interesting place we have reached, isn't it?
- 16/03/2010 03:31:27 AM
870 Views
Well, we should have a RoleBlocker too.
- 16/03/2010 03:40:33 AM
848 Views
Re: Well, we should have a RoleBlocker too.
- 16/03/2010 04:01:54 AM
686 Views
Vote Count
- 16/03/2010 03:46:08 AM
685 Views
Re: Vote Count
- 16/03/2010 03:51:48 AM
644 Views
Ahh, that's right.
- 16/03/2010 03:54:56 AM
794 Views
Isaac had voted too, but he unvoted since then. *NM*
- 16/03/2010 04:01:47 AM
379 Views
HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 05:39:37 AM
855 Views
Re: HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 01:19:02 PM
629 Views
Re: HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 04:13:50 PM
795 Views
I must concur
- 16/03/2010 05:24:17 PM
669 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 16/03/2010 11:03:30 PM
774 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 16/03/2010 11:05:48 PM
635 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 17/03/2010 12:32:40 AM
713 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 17/03/2010 12:38:28 AM
643 Views


*NM*