I don't really see how we're going to be able to come to a quick decision.
Darth_Katie Send a noteboard - 09/03/2010 06:19:11 AM
I don't want to bother wasting anytime over beet. There were only two people to blame for his death, himself and the RBer. He talked himself into that lynch, then his RC - I still think he was lying about not realizing it was important, I don't know, it was so blatantly false no one believed it and we shouldn't have, but we gave him a chance for everyone to claim RB, we even listed in detail why the RBer would be safe from NK and lynch. I do not understand the reasoning there, it was a surefire way to become prob-town, we wouldn't have lynched them, even if we didn't believe it and still went with beet then they'd be clear now, so their reasoning surprises me. Regardless, we must assume everyone who voted for beet, excluding the RBer if they were one which I doubt, did it because they thought he was non-town, even the DFs and or SK if they voted probably thought so, so we won't get very far examining motives on that score.
'cause what you're basically saying here is that we're not going to get any information from Beet's lynch. Where are we supposed to get stuff to work with then? I mean, that's about all we talked about Yesterday in some form or the other. I agree that it's not very clear-cut at all and there are a lot of ifs and uncertainties, but idk if we can just dismiss it outright. At the very least, we can probably be sure that at least a few DFs took part. Granted, I am not really sure how far that can get us, but there it is.
One bizarre possibility worth raising is that the RBer might be a DF, and that beet was his backup, winning with the town unless he died then becoming the DF RBer. This seems ridiculous but would explain the RBers silence, and it considering our sheer number of implied roles I have to assume the DF side is a bit up-gunned themselves.
I was thinking this too when I was trying to come up with reasons why the RBer wouldn't want to come forward. But it doesn't make much sense for there to be an innocent back-up RBer if the original RBer is scum. Idk, it's a really weird situation. I'd like to think that Gher isn't playing enormous mind games with us by including deputies for roles that don't actually exist, but I could be wrong. He could really be that mean.
Okay, our deaths. Hobo and Hieshyn. A mason and a vanilla. This means are confirmed list of roles thus far is:
Backup Cop 1x
Backup Roleblocker 1x
Doctor 1x
Mason 1x
Miller 1x
Vanilla 1x
We really can't be sure there even is a cop, a roleblocker, or another mason as any of these may be red-herrings. However, for the moment let's assume their are 10 townies and that the roles aren't red herrings.
The other Mason
The Cop
The Roleblocker
A backup doc
It seems plausible we'd have a back up doc, now, note how that puts us at ten, and I think it's unlikely we have more then 10 townies with all these roles. Could we have more roles or vanillas? Yes, absolutely. The other end of that mason bond could be a vanilla mason, or it could be a DF or a player role. Let's not jump to conclude anything there, Gher is unlikely to include masons in the game unaware of their past usage so that other mason might be multiple masons, might be vanilla, role, DF, SK, etc. I could easily see a backup role being a mason, we also may not have a backup doc, that may simply be wishful thinking with the backups on cop and Rber, but while a backup cop serves a pro-town purpose, frankly a town RBer does not and a back up certainly didn't, and I doubt Gher did not realize their weaknesses anymore then the miller. So we could have other roles, other vanillas, etc. I'm leery of mass claims at this point, I suppose we should go ahead and hypocop. I'm not sure what to advise on that. There's no need to huddle around the people suggested yesterday, obviously, so you should pick people you'd have been inclined to investigate, just make sure not to dis-include Hobo or Hieshyn and if you list them than list them innocent. Obviously don't hypocop someone you've already hypocopped. Probably determine guilt as straight 50/50 on everyone else, after all we probably are 4 town 4 baddie at the moment. Which more or less confirms we have a third faction, not a vig or a mafia don. We could be 4-4 town vs DF with a vig but not likely. None of our four NKs have been suspicious so I can't see a vig whacking them, and otherwise the game would be over.
I agree we shouldn't mass claim Today. If there is a Doc and especially a Cop still hanging around (and there almost certainly is a Cop, at least), then we want to give them at least another Night to work their magic. With likely such a high ratio of scum to townies, they're more likely than not to hit on a Mafia Tonight.
So we should assume we only have 4 townies left and most of those will be mason, roled mason, RBer, backup doc, and cop but let's not discount the possibility of additional vanillas or roles, nor automatically assume our mason is a DF. THe good news is, with a SK, cult, whatever running around we have less to fear from NKs. Half the surviving players are non-town, probably, so tonights NKs and todays lynch are much more likely to hit a bad guy. We need to basically assist the bad guys find the good guys so they can kill them and not us along with avoiding another mislynch. So basically our goal today is to try to prob-town people and hope random lynch and NK on the remainder will net some non-town.
I should say, I don't want to muck up much today, I see no reason for Day 3 to take more than a week or so, I prefer out more blitz-oriented game anyway.
I don't want to drag this Day out longer than necessary either, but right now I think we are working with some very limited information. If I had to pick one person right now who looked the most suspicious to me, just from reviewing the events of the Day, it would be Fox and Ravens. Just a lot of really coincidental stuff that doesn't really add up all that well. I know that I said Yesterday that I thought he was probably Town, but now that I go back and look at it, a lot of his actions could be cast in a more sinister light. One of the big things from Yesterday was that he was so adamant in his accusation against Ranagrande despite the lack of evidence. Surely, I said, no DF would ever be so silly in their pursuit of a Townie who had nothing on them? But perhaps Fox simply ended up sticking with Ranagrande so long after it was pointed out the case was non-existent because he didn't want to be accused of flip-flopping. He'd already been accused of flip-flopping in the case of Hieshyn, so perhaps he didn't want to push his luck and just stuck with the "I'm a Townie stubbornly following my intuition" model. He did switch his vote from Ranagrande to Beet at the end once it became obvious that his target of choice wasn't going to be lynched. Now there's something to be said for pragmatism, but still. Facts are facts. Of course, anything can be construed into scummy behavior; I'm just saying this is what stuck out to me when I was doing the Vote Table. What do you all think?
Also, I can appreciate how under the circumstances the RBer and the mason might be leery of claiming, but it is necessary and you will have to eventually so better to do it sooner than later.
Insert theme music here.
Rafo Mafia 4 Day 3 has ended
- 08/03/2010 06:20:26 PM
2013 Views
Okay, so it seems pretty clear that we have a third-party
- 08/03/2010 08:31:17 PM
756 Views
Man, I'm saddled with that job forever, aren't I?
- 08/03/2010 09:58:50 PM
721 Views
Whoops, kinda forgot Hobo died.
- 09/03/2010 01:22:27 AM
870 Views
- 09/03/2010 01:22:27 AM
870 Views
That's just bad manners, tsk tsk, you kill him, then you forget him, eh?
*NM*
- 09/03/2010 01:27:38 AM
429 Views
*NM*
- 09/03/2010 01:27:38 AM
429 Views
What's that now? Kronin killed Hobo?
- 09/03/2010 03:18:54 AM
712 Views
- 09/03/2010 03:18:54 AM
712 Views
Yes, I have incontrovertible proof that Kronin killed Hobo with a Candlestick in the Conservatory
- 09/03/2010 03:34:51 AM
742 Views
- 09/03/2010 03:34:51 AM
742 Views
Let's discuss our new info
- 09/03/2010 01:26:40 AM
811 Views
I don't really see how we're going to be able to come to a quick decision.
- 09/03/2010 06:19:11 AM
921 Views
Vote Record (Table)
- 09/03/2010 05:50:26 AM
879 Views
The Vote Record makes Fox seem very suspicious.
- 09/03/2010 12:20:23 PM
725 Views
I suppose so
- 09/03/2010 06:56:02 PM
770 Views
Good point.
- 09/03/2010 07:32:56 PM
838 Views
Re: Good point.
- 09/03/2010 08:15:32 PM
913 Views
Re: Hobo
- 12/03/2010 04:52:47 AM
845 Views
Pulling a Gher?
- 12/03/2010 05:20:27 AM
655 Views
There were like three times in a row that Gher tried to hammer
- 12/03/2010 01:27:31 PM
723 Views
I'm sorry. RBIRL
- 10/03/2010 07:57:15 AM
902 Views
*Taps on the glass*
- 11/03/2010 11:23:35 PM
874 Views
I'm thinking the same thing... *NM*
- 11/03/2010 11:36:39 PM
403 Views
Well, I was going to wait for our last Hypocop, but...
- 12/03/2010 01:24:32 AM
819 Views
Have I really?
- 12/03/2010 02:53:33 AM
761 Views
EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 02:55:16 AM
757 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 03:47:04 AM
701 Views
Re: EBWOP
- 12/03/2010 04:04:40 AM
638 Views
Obvious how so? *NM*
- 12/03/2010 04:17:55 AM
498 Views
Well, something like what I did yesterday with the trap.
- 12/03/2010 04:30:47 AM
648 Views
A cop might do something like that.
- 12/03/2010 04:56:42 AM
825 Views
I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 05:27:05 AM
703 Views
Re: I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 01:23:29 PM
763 Views
Re: I'm just saying that I think anyone with a role or a bad guy would have been a little more...
- 12/03/2010 05:49:05 PM
812 Views
Hrm...
- 12/03/2010 08:05:29 PM
649 Views
Well, a DF working alone would just be a Serial Killer.
- 12/03/2010 08:19:02 PM
849 Views
well of course there are vanillas
- 13/03/2010 12:36:10 AM
720 Views
You all may have noticed...
- 14/03/2010 12:01:11 AM
737 Views
Re: You all may have noticed...
- 14/03/2010 01:49:24 AM
775 Views
On F-T....
- 14/03/2010 03:26:04 AM
661 Views
Re: On F-T....
- 14/03/2010 04:01:09 AM
817 Views
I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 04:07:09 AM
608 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 04:27:54 AM
808 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 01:32:16 PM
833 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 02:24:03 PM
815 Views
Re: I'm just trying to point out any suspicions.
- 14/03/2010 02:25:20 PM
817 Views
I like Tank-f
- 15/03/2010 08:29:39 PM
634 Views
Eh, tank factions sounds better I think.
- 15/03/2010 08:33:38 PM
658 Views
Re: Eh, tank factions sounds better I think.
- 15/03/2010 08:35:42 PM
707 Views
Back
- 14/03/2010 12:07:58 PM
768 Views
On the subject of inactivity...
- 14/03/2010 01:31:40 PM
809 Views
I use my browser's 'Find' function
- 15/03/2010 03:54:48 PM
945 Views
The site's 'search' function is faster, but a bit limited
- 15/03/2010 05:43:11 PM
702 Views
Eh, for a quick look at how the Day's going, 'Find' works well.
- 15/03/2010 08:18:40 PM
964 Views
Re: Eh, for a quick look at how the Day's going, 'Find' works well.
- 15/03/2010 08:28:07 PM
927 Views
Are we sure we don't want a mass role-claim?
- 14/03/2010 11:55:02 PM
683 Views
Well, it's probably going to come to that before the end of the day
- 15/03/2010 12:29:59 AM
836 Views
So, are you saying I should RC next since fist already did? *NM*
- 15/03/2010 03:05:45 PM
356 Views
Personally I think he jumped the gun.
- 15/03/2010 03:11:35 PM
815 Views
He was a little quick on this one
- 15/03/2010 07:04:53 PM
681 Views
I kind of like this idea.
- 15/03/2010 08:28:05 PM
719 Views
Re: I kind of like this idea.
- 15/03/2010 08:36:09 PM
678 Views
I agree Ranagrande should claim next.
- 15/03/2010 08:45:14 PM
857 Views
Basically, he did jump the gun there but...
- 15/03/2010 05:44:56 PM
761 Views
Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 07:44:45 PM
749 Views
Whoops! Wrong link!
- 15/03/2010 07:46:15 PM
639 Views
I completely believe you.
- 15/03/2010 08:08:04 PM
679 Views
Seems pretty trustworthy to me too.
- 15/03/2010 08:21:30 PM
658 Views
Re: Seems pretty trustworthy to me too.
- 15/03/2010 08:31:08 PM
844 Views
I'd have to agree
- 15/03/2010 08:43:26 PM
737 Views
Re: I'd have to agree
- 15/03/2010 09:21:42 PM
860 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 08:03:11 PM
669 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:27:21 PM
674 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:48:45 PM
692 Views
Re: Ok. I'm a Mason.
- 15/03/2010 09:58:37 PM
678 Views
We have a vigilante? God, he must suck.
- 15/03/2010 10:13:33 PM
606 Views
Re: We have a vigilante? God, he must suck.
- 15/03/2010 10:16:58 PM
662 Views
You know?
- 15/03/2010 10:20:10 PM
640 Views
Lol I saw the youtube address and thought you were trying to Rickroll us.
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 08:32:01 PM
385 Views
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 08:32:01 PM
385 Views
It's link to a video of finnish comedian, I linked it to my friend I was having chat with
- 15/03/2010 09:30:15 PM
631 Views
My role-claim, and a few other thoughts
- 15/03/2010 10:57:55 PM
815 Views
Re: My role-claim, and a few other thoughts
- 16/03/2010 01:53:01 AM
856 Views
LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:24:19 AM
650 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:32:30 AM
748 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:39:44 AM
639 Views
Re: LOL, lasty I checked Napoleon was our doc
- 16/03/2010 02:54:04 AM
840 Views
Let's NOT kill Bergioyn.
- 16/03/2010 02:59:17 AM
722 Views
Re: Let's NOT kill Bergioyn.
- 16/03/2010 03:08:10 AM
859 Views
I am not making an incorrect reference.
- 16/03/2010 03:12:02 AM
684 Views
Good
- 16/03/2010 03:20:23 AM
783 Views
EBWOP
- 16/03/2010 03:21:08 AM
654 Views
Another thing
- 16/03/2010 03:25:34 AM
841 Views
I'm not Arsonist, so there shouldn't be any neutralization message.
- 16/03/2010 07:01:10 AM
790 Views
Something is wrong here
- 16/03/2010 03:22:47 AM
783 Views
Oh, and Isaac
- 15/03/2010 08:38:08 PM
729 Views
Re: Oh, and Isaac
- 15/03/2010 11:22:21 PM
684 Views
LOL, there was like this massive bomb of posts and now... silence
- 16/03/2010 12:55:34 AM
816 Views
Well for starters I decided maybe I ought to work on my project that's due tomorrow.
- 16/03/2010 02:01:11 AM
802 Views
- 16/03/2010 02:01:11 AM
802 Views
Okay, here ya are
- 15/03/2010 11:58:14 PM
762 Views
Re: Okay, here ya are
- 16/03/2010 07:12:31 AM
703 Views
Re: Okay, here ya are
- 16/03/2010 08:01:24 AM
786 Views
Wait, what?
- 16/03/2010 08:11:54 AM
644 Views
Re: Wait, what?
- 16/03/2010 05:00:39 PM
749 Views
Role Claims (Table)
- 15/03/2010 10:15:59 PM
849 Views
Re: Role Claims (Table) *NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:16:14 PM
384 Views
Whoops, replied instead of editing. *NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:16:29 PM
356 Views
You forgot mine. I calimed VT first, after all.
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:26:27 PM
415 Views
*NM*
- 15/03/2010 10:26:27 PM
415 Views
Okay, White Flame has claimed, and it seems decently legit.
- 16/03/2010 02:09:50 AM
829 Views
So many RC's, well mine...
- 16/03/2010 02:29:01 AM
848 Views
Now this is an interesting place we have reached, isn't it?
- 16/03/2010 03:25:19 AM
849 Views
Re: Now this is an interesting place we have reached, isn't it?
- 16/03/2010 03:31:27 AM
871 Views
Well, we should have a RoleBlocker too.
- 16/03/2010 03:40:33 AM
849 Views
Re: Well, we should have a RoleBlocker too.
- 16/03/2010 04:01:54 AM
687 Views
Vote Count
- 16/03/2010 03:46:08 AM
688 Views
Re: Vote Count
- 16/03/2010 03:51:48 AM
647 Views
Ahh, that's right.
- 16/03/2010 03:54:56 AM
795 Views
Isaac had voted too, but he unvoted since then. *NM*
- 16/03/2010 04:01:47 AM
380 Views
HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 05:39:37 AM
856 Views
Re: HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 01:19:02 PM
632 Views
Re: HOLY CRAP!
- 16/03/2010 04:13:50 PM
796 Views
I must concur
- 16/03/2010 05:24:17 PM
670 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 16/03/2010 11:03:30 PM
777 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 16/03/2010 11:05:48 PM
638 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 17/03/2010 12:32:40 AM
716 Views
Vote: White Flame of Tar Valon
- 17/03/2010 12:38:28 AM
644 Views


*NM*