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I've think I've finally done it. I've solved the entire Curve. Daigian is the key... Shannow Send a noteboard - 01/11/2012 09:20:57 AM
if Daigian is strong enough to be AS she cannot be more than 1 Standard Deviation from the Mean. On a Bell Curve she would be fall well below 62.5% if she was 2 SDs lower than the Mean and therefore too weak to be AS.

Which likely means She is significantly stronger than Morgase. But it also likely means that Egwene is at least as close, if not closer to Lanfear than Daigian is to Morgase.


Firstly, the Daigian issue is a sound one. The fact that Daigian clearly delineates the limit between the bottom 37.5% of channelers and the top 62.5% is very useful.

It tells us a lot about the standard deviation. We know that about 68% of channelers fall within 1 standard deviation from the Mean. At the same time, we know that only 25% of channelers lie within Daigian's distance from the Mean (above and below).

Meaning that Daigian lies well within 1 standard deviation from the Mean. In fact, she lies about 0.32 standard deviations from the Mean, based on RJ's stats.

Right, so Daigian is Marker A, at 0.32 standard deviations from the Mean. Remember this, as I'll come back to it in the concluding formula.

Next, we also know that Moiraine is at least 3 times as strong as Daigian, and that Egwene at full strength is just shy of twice Moiraine's strength. Meaning that Egwene is likely around 5 times Daigian's strength.

Based on the evidence (the known channeling sample, which is around 5000 female channelers), there seems to be about a 1 in 500 chance of a channeler of Egwene's strength occurring. I calculate this as follows:

Out of the approximately 5000 (roughly) known female channelers, about 10 modern day channelers are as strong or stronger than Egwene. Off the top of my head, they are

Sharina
Someryn
Tamela
Viendre,
Talaan
Aviendha
Elayne
and one or two novices with Egwene level potential.

About 10 people in total, give or take a few.

That means there will be about 20 channelers out of 5000 that are further than Egwene from the Mean, on both the lower and upper side. From a population of 5000, that's 1 in 250, approximately.

For the purposes of this discussion, I am happy to assign to her the 1 in 370 rarity which equates to 3 standard deviations from the Mean (using Sidious's quick SD quide in the post above).

So Egwene is Marker B, which is 3 Standard Deviations from the Mean.

Marker A and B allow us to unravel the entire strength model.

If we assign a random value to Daigian, we can determine the strength of Egwene, the magnitude of the standard deviation, and the Mean itself, all by simple extrapolation.

That means we've cracked the entire code! Here it is, in all its beautiful simplicity.

I'll just present the numbers that were the end result of lots of iterations to get it to fit a 100 point scale. But you can use any number in this model and come to the same relative strengths on any scale you choose. Here it is:

If Daigian is a hypothetical 12, then Egwene is approximately a 60. (5 times stronger than Daigian)

Now, since we know Daigian lies 0.32 Standard Deviations below the Mean, and Egwene lies 3 standard deviations above the Mean, that means the absolute distance between them, which is 60-12 = 48, equates to 3.32 standard deviations.

This means that the Standard Deviation of the One Power strength Curve, is 48/3.32 = 14.46 (on a 100 point scale).

Since Daigian is 0.32 Standard Deviations below the Mean, we can therefore determine that the Mean is at 16.6, using Daigians assumed starting point of 12.

Now that we have the Mean and the Standard Deviation, everything else falls into place.

Since Egwene is 3 Standard Deviations above the Mean, Egwene's strength is 16.6 + 3 Standard Deviations, which ties back to the 60 strength we had before.

Then it is simple to calculate the strengths of persons 4, 5 and 6 standard deviations above the Mean.

3 SD (Egwene) = 60.

4 SD (Moghedien) = 60+14.5 = 74.5
5 SD (Graendal) = 74.5+14.5 = 89
6 SD (Lanfear) = 89+14.5 = 103.

Meaning Lanfear is just short of 6 Standard Deviations from the Mean.

All of the above are statistically irrefutable based on 3 simple assumptions:

1 - 37.5% of channelers lie below Daigian on the Curve. (Based on RJ's own quote)

2. Egwene is approximately 5 times as strong as Daigian. (Based on evidence from the books)

3. Egwene's rarity among the modern day channeler population is approximately 1 in 370, equating to 3 Standard Deviations. (Based on the known modern day channelers in the Books).

There. The code has been cracked.

Small permutations are of course a given, but the overall methodology seems entirely sound in my view.

Please feel free to critique it, because this may just be the solution to it all, if we've got it right.
This message last edited by Shannow on 02/11/2012 at 08:26:20 AM
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Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 31/10/2012 11:30:42 AM 1620 Views
Who said RJ created a 100 point scale? I always assumed we did to make this easier to follow - 31/10/2012 02:22:51 PM 965 Views
One more point here - 31/10/2012 03:02:34 PM 837 Views
I've think I've finally done it. I've solved the entire Curve. Daigian is the key... - 01/11/2012 09:20:57 AM 1075 Views
Did some playing with your numbers to make this work better - 01/11/2012 02:13:00 PM 1032 Views
The Mean and SD are set by Daigian's position. Your options are therefore not possible... - 02/11/2012 07:49:24 AM 991 Views
Yet you have many more SD between the Mean and Lanfear than you do Morgase and the Mean - 02/11/2012 02:39:51 PM 849 Views
I absolutely agree. The lower side of the curve MUST be intersected by zero after 1 SD... - 02/11/2012 03:03:52 PM 745 Views
I am not convinced Moiraine is the Mean. Merely 50% of Lanfear - 02/11/2012 04:23:57 PM 893 Views
But on a Bell Curve the Mean IS 50% of Lanfear. You've just disproven your own contention. - 02/11/2012 04:40:31 PM 812 Views
OMG no it is NOT! - 02/11/2012 05:16:36 PM 716 Views
I agree with that. But please honestly look at the math I presented. It disproves the Bell Curve. - 02/11/2012 05:24:41 PM 1018 Views
It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved. - 02/11/2012 06:07:19 PM 862 Views
Confusing post... - 02/11/2012 06:30:40 PM 912 Views
Dreadlord is essentially describing a lognormal distribution - 02/11/2012 07:21:39 PM 806 Views
If you choose to ignore the author go right ahead. I just think you are wrong - 02/11/2012 09:05:14 PM 942 Views
A non-linear 21 point scale is fine... - 02/11/2012 11:02:48 PM 981 Views
I've been operating off of the scale I described for years - 02/11/2012 11:25:27 PM 874 Views
Re: It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved. - 02/11/2012 07:11:57 PM 906 Views
Not true - 02/11/2012 08:52:42 PM 904 Views
Re: Not true - 03/11/2012 09:19:11 AM 912 Views
Read my other posts - 03/11/2012 04:19:15 PM 723 Views
Not quite - 03/11/2012 08:02:05 AM 871 Views
I think it's about skill not strength - 03/11/2012 04:38:07 PM 732 Views
I think the number is about 10 - 03/11/2012 08:42:08 AM 937 Views
Nope - 03/11/2012 04:14:45 PM 843 Views
Re: Nope - 03/11/2012 04:39:07 PM 870 Views
Verin and Graendal each have angreal of unkown strength - 03/11/2012 06:15:49 PM 835 Views
Re: Verin and Graendal each have angreal of unkown strength - 03/11/2012 10:15:10 PM 883 Views
*shrugs* - 03/11/2012 10:25:18 PM 771 Views
Re: *shrugs* - 04/11/2012 07:12:21 AM 966 Views
You have 4 markers and you should use them all - 10/11/2012 03:08:37 PM 704 Views
Indeed - 10/11/2012 03:59:51 PM 845 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 01/11/2012 06:23:07 PM 907 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 01/11/2012 09:48:04 PM 864 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 02/11/2012 09:02:58 PM 874 Views
Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve - 02/11/2012 09:56:50 PM 959 Views
I'll have to disagree with much of this - 03/11/2012 07:46:31 AM 915 Views
Why do you always think Strength is the point - 03/11/2012 04:35:26 PM 694 Views
I don't - I merely appreciate it as a factor - 03/11/2012 04:48:24 PM 775 Views
0 Evidence? Cyndane v. Alivia is plenty of evidence EDIT with exact quote - 03/11/2012 06:17:39 PM 836 Views
One other thing you have forgotten about - 03/11/2012 10:13:09 PM 787 Views
Your agenda blinds you to logic yet again...As I'll simply demonstrate with your example here... - 03/11/2012 11:08:13 PM 847 Views
Nope, the only experience she has in reality is against Rand - 03/11/2012 11:09:54 PM 758 Views
Nonsense. - 03/11/2012 11:11:05 PM 783 Views
Believe as you will - 03/11/2012 11:26:50 PM 943 Views
That's a classic. - 04/11/2012 12:06:13 AM 815 Views
You misquote on a regular basis and have no grasp of the timeline in the series - 04/11/2012 01:36:37 AM 700 Views
Hmm... - 04/11/2012 07:08:04 AM 1031 Views
stop getting all indignant ... I'm really not trying to be nasty to you - 04/11/2012 04:20:06 PM 840 Views

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