Moiraine and Lan were looking for Rand. How much Shadow-fighting were they really up to? In any event, there are all sorts of things that could have happened even if she never made it to the Two Rivers. Rand could still have hit all the important points without her intervention. A better question might have been, how would she have persuaded them to come with her if the Trollocs had never attacked? Nobody was all that sanguine about her waltzing off with the kids, and she had to persuade them to sneak away, and just about the whole village was in agreement that they had to be recovered from Moiraine's clutches. Without the aftermath of a Trolloc attack to clean up, they would not have been distracted enough to let her get away with the kids, and while the Finder coins might have made Mat & Perrin amenable, Rand was resistant and not all that thrilled with the idea of leaving. Mat would also have been a hard sell to go with an Aes Sedai.