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The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders. Tom Send a noteboard - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.

Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?

The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.

Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.

ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius

Ummaka qinnassa nīk!

*MySmiley*
This message last edited by Tom on 23/11/2010 at 07:05:14 PM
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North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM 1291 Views
"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?" - 23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM 1083 Views
Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb. - 23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM 927 Views
The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless. - 23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM 850 Views
yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM 484 Views
"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives. - 23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM 985 Views
Honestly, it COULD go either way. - 23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM 1126 Views
The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders. - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM 935 Views
Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe. - 23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM 1019 Views
I think there's another prerequisite, namely, Taiwan. - 25/11/2010 05:20:43 AM 925 Views
China's relations with North Korea are also worsening, though. - 25/11/2010 05:48:01 PM 1262 Views
What Tom said. - 23/11/2010 05:15:31 PM 932 Views
I figured someone else would post it *NM* - 23/11/2010 11:16:44 AM 424 Views
You know I like to sleep in, remember? - 23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM 926 Views
Agreed - 23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM 1033 Views
I think most Americans are asleep until the sun rises here - 23/11/2010 11:32:28 AM 938 Views
That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM 925 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM 973 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM 857 Views
The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire... - 25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM 1103 Views
you know what they say - 25/11/2010 10:34:30 AM 953 Views
Never send an Englishman to do a man's work? - 25/11/2010 09:06:22 PM 956 Views
I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM 933 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM 799 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM 906 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM 877 Views
Honestly, - 23/11/2010 02:36:13 PM 843 Views
you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM 452 Views
I had an inkling. *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:37:37 PM 487 Views
OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article. - 23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM 1025 Views
Fact checking: - 23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM 928 Views
The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better. - 23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM 858 Views
my two bits - 23/11/2010 10:51:51 PM 985 Views
I'm glad your ex wasn't there in 1970 then. - 24/11/2010 01:10:02 AM 956 Views
Well - 23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM 966 Views
There's not going to be any all-out conflict - 24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM 1082 Views
They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. - 24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM 1038 Views
No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time. - 24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM 909 Views
That is the crux of it, I suppose. - 24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM 989 Views
~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so. - 24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM 964 Views
Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago. - 25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM 1567 Views
They won't be the last. - 02/12/2010 12:55:20 AM 1138 Views
Re: North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 24/11/2010 01:50:11 AM 873 Views

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