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The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders. Tom Send a noteboard - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.

Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?

The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.

Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.

ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius

Ummaka qinnassa nīk!

*MySmiley*
This message last edited by Tom on 23/11/2010 at 07:05:14 PM
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North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 23/11/2010 10:56:03 AM 1448 Views
"Oh God, Oh God, we are all going to die?" - 23/11/2010 11:09:30 AM 1231 Views
Yup, but the day Beijing decides they're better off not intervening the Appeasers look very dumb. - 23/11/2010 11:23:35 AM 1086 Views
The appeasers look very dumb at this point regardless. - 23/11/2010 04:11:41 PM 990 Views
yes, because we want to fight *ANOTHER* proxy war with china *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:29:18 PM 547 Views
"Wanting" has nothing to do with it. There are few alternatives. - 23/11/2010 04:50:02 PM 1136 Views
Honestly, it COULD go either way. - 23/11/2010 05:14:18 PM 1262 Views
The fact that it could go either way is a testimony to the longevity of Chinese leaders. - 23/11/2010 07:04:14 PM 1081 Views
Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe. - 23/11/2010 07:32:17 PM 1156 Views
I think there's another prerequisite, namely, Taiwan. - 25/11/2010 05:20:43 AM 1074 Views
China's relations with North Korea are also worsening, though. - 25/11/2010 05:48:01 PM 1427 Views
What Tom said. - 23/11/2010 05:15:31 PM 1073 Views
I figured someone else would post it *NM* - 23/11/2010 11:16:44 AM 487 Views
You know I like to sleep in, remember? - 23/11/2010 11:20:33 AM 1075 Views
Agreed - 23/11/2010 02:07:30 PM 1183 Views
I think most Americans are asleep until the sun rises here - 23/11/2010 11:32:28 AM 1085 Views
That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:40:33 AM 1066 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:46:03 AM 1108 Views
Re: That is 'cause everyone else is hiding out in their nuclear bunkers - 23/11/2010 11:57:51 AM 968 Views
The really sad part is, that along with everything else worthwhile in the British Empire... - 25/11/2010 09:49:00 AM 1240 Views
you know what they say - 25/11/2010 10:34:30 AM 1103 Views
Never send an Englishman to do a man's work? - 25/11/2010 09:06:22 PM 1099 Views
I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:14:20 PM 1082 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 01:15:10 PM 956 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:32:17 PM 1053 Views
Re: I actually had no clue. - 23/11/2010 04:36:59 PM 1017 Views
Honestly, - 23/11/2010 02:36:13 PM 997 Views
you know the world doesn't exist until america wakes up in the morning, right? *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:27:27 PM 515 Views
I had an inkling. *NM* - 23/11/2010 04:37:37 PM 552 Views
OK, have had time to read it, and someone needs to fact check a very important part of that article. - 23/11/2010 04:52:02 PM 1129 Views
Fact checking: - 23/11/2010 08:38:57 PM 1075 Views
The term "truce" used in a different Guardian article seems better. - 23/11/2010 09:20:19 PM 1005 Views
my two bits - 23/11/2010 10:51:51 PM 1146 Views
I'm glad your ex wasn't there in 1970 then. - 24/11/2010 01:10:02 AM 1100 Views
Well - 23/11/2010 05:24:02 PM 1094 Views
There's not going to be any all-out conflict - 24/11/2010 12:56:44 AM 1267 Views
They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. - 24/11/2010 01:20:33 AM 1181 Views
No kidding, that's been going on for quite some time. - 24/11/2010 02:49:50 AM 1054 Views
That is the crux of it, I suppose. - 24/11/2010 03:02:40 PM 1137 Views
~shrugs~ SK has lived with this a long time, and will continue to do so. - 24/11/2010 10:26:44 PM 1120 Views
Parts of it have; some South Koreans stopped living with it a few days ago. - 25/11/2010 01:48:02 PM 1731 Views
They won't be the last. - 02/12/2010 12:55:20 AM 1282 Views
Re: North Korea attacks South Korea and no one mentions it? - 24/11/2010 01:50:11 AM 1015 Views

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