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Again, we're back to "how would you prefer to do it?" Joel Send a noteboard - 09/02/2010 09:42:51 AM
We're sorting of hitting the 'arguing about two seperate issues' point.

What I am saying is that the HDI is a fairly legit way to measure a country, but not to contrast to others as a means of fine comparison. In many ways it's basically worthless, because it's pretty obvious and unnecessary to compare dirt hovel places with western countries, and the western countries are simply too close to measure policy off of. You don't need the HDI, nor does it serve any useful purpose, if you're trying to show Country X has a superior literacy program to Country Y. The specific program itself can be used and really is the only useful standard. The thing is not accurate in that way, not to say 'Ah look, X had .01 higher on the HDI, let's assume that is a sign of superior policy' because it just isn't accurate enough.

I want to emphasize, yes, 1/3 can carry on beyond 1 digit, but only if it's been treated as a clean derivative. There has to be a justificaiton for that. 1/2mv^2 can easily be shown to be the integral of mv, the 1/2 comes from that, it is the clean byproduct of a mathematical equation, not a empirical result. It is not a coefficient that has simply been taken from the data, it is very specifically 1/2. Saying 1/3 for weighting is simply an unjustified assumption, unproven, therefore no more or less accurate than saying 1/3.0002 or 1/3.4. Does it make sense to equally weight them when no legitimate justification exists for more accurate weighting and they all seem very important? Yes, sure. But that doesn't mean it becomes highly accurate as a measure of anything but itself. And the more one tries to yank specific comparisons of policy out, the more one is subject to biased interpretations and corrections as well as giving people a big reason to try it. There are simply too many variables in it that have distortion or are distortable to compare, not only do you have the 'no more accurate than least accurate' problem but also that innaccuracies stack.

If I measure the momentum of object by it's mass and velocity, and each is only measurable to within 1%, the momentum isn't accurate to 1%, it's accurate to the range of the of their combined inaccuracy.

This isn't something subject to debate, the variables involved, while allowing for a decent measure of accuracy for HDI, do not allow the HDI to be used as a useful tool for comparison of policy. You are, I believe, trying to argue the accuracy of the HDI itself, I am arguing is accuracy as a useful index for comparison. There's no polite way to put this, but in this regard, I am right. There can be no argument without empirical proof that 1/3 is a more accurate value than 1/4 or .356, and no such empirical proof exists. As such a change in waiting would noticeably alter the rankings, the HDI can not possibly be considered anything but a loose benchmark, and therefore the ranking order as it is can not be used as a legitimate measure of policy between parallel entities.

Obviously specific areas of each countries policy can be compared directly, but how should we compare overall effectiveness of all policies? HDI isn't perfect, but it still seems like the best method for now because it uses real and verifiable data from multiple areas in non-random and unbiased ways, without becoming a laundry list that spends so much time collecting so much data on so many aspects of life that there's never a chance to actually analyze it. Note also that the three factors measured are added to produce a final rating; if I have three numbers that are 99% accurate and add them together, how much extra imprecision can I POSSIBLY introduce? If ALL of them are off by 0.9% (the maximum, since we know their accurate down to a precision of 1%) and in the same direction, the final result will be off by a maximum 2.7%, which isn't much (and rather unlikely regardless, though still possible. ) The real question with HDI keeps coming back to whether an impartial 1/3 waiting is valid, which we can debate, but there are legitimate and real reasons for that, and any alternative without some basis would only make it more rather than less inaccurate.

But let's set that aside, because we're probably not going to get anywhere debating its overall validity. We know the relationship between PPP GDP/capita and life expectancy is generally proportional, so the question is whether higher levels of the latter relative to the rest of the developed world justifies lower levels of the former. That sounds an awful lot like supplying marginal returns at the high end of income at the cost of a lot more sickness and death at the low end. Again we're back to the Xbox analogy; in America, China or Angola every Xbox purchased is that much less money for vaccines, and vice versa, as you noted. Where the priority lies often depends on things like whether one has the means to purchase BOTH or NEITHER. I think a pretty strong argument can be made, however, that the country as a whole (rather than a given impoverished or wealthy individual) benefits more from immunizing 100 people on the street than from an Xbox purchase (see: riots. )
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Um... sorry, man.... - 10/02/2010 11:06:22 AM 638 Views

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