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knife hand? *confused* *NM* Yunalesca Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
*MySmiley*
The best things in life are weird:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Paigeofmaces

“Brave Hobo, defend me as I flee!”
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1993 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 697 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 1142 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 1096 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 1185 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 1098 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 1138 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 631 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 1055 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 683 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 722 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 1065 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1336 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 596 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 680 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 653 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 1052 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 1152 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1193 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 1121 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1245 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 1014 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 688 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 671 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 1073 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1296 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 635 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 1108 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 636 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 1107 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 1065 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1192 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 1129 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 1072 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1269 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 1110 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 1177 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 1140 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 1186 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 990 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 1118 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 1162 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 1074 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 1156 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 667 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 618 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 640 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 695 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 1098 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 1130 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 1139 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 1144 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 1063 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 1061 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 1046 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 606 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 1116 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 1089 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 1057 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 1147 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 1094 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 1108 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 1119 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 1071 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 1105 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 1071 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1223 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1210 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 1167 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 1011 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 1051 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 1074 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 991 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 1074 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 1124 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 984 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 615 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 1042 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 1127 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 940 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 1070 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 1161 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 955 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 1115 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 996 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 1055 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 648 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 1083 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 1158 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 1185 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 1098 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 1120 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 1094 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 628 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 1042 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 1047 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 646 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 1142 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 614 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 1074 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 1095 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 1056 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 1051 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 616 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 1031 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 653 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 602 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 645 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 579 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 1056 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 972 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 639 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 714 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 1215 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1217 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 566 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 683 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 1015 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 1091 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 1062 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 1036 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 1082 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 1045 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 1179 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 1104 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1271 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 1114 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 1054 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 1106 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 1042 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 1063 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 1043 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 1106 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 1039 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 1106 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 1077 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 1075 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 1004 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 1127 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 1075 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 1106 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 1159 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 1097 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 1151 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 606 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 1151 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 1109 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 1082 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 1115 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 1113 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 600 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1365 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 1093 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 1082 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 1091 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 1186 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 1029 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 1165 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 1101 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 1018 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 907 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 505 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 975 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1618 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 1039 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 1140 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 1076 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 1088 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 1129 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 1101 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 1136 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 1065 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 1075 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1313 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 1009 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1232 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 963 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 974 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 1045 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 1153 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 1116 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 1115 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1177 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 1043 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 1045 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 1107 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 1106 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 1045 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 1112 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 1152 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 1006 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 1045 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 1121 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 1060 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 1040 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 1107 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 1094 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1308 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 648 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 1112 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 1024 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 666 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 1107 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 1192 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 1137 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 625 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 1037 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 611 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 680 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 1114 Views

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