I don't like just lynching low posters for being low posters. Though, we do have two lynches so we can do that. Other than that, no one really stands out to me. Isaac does look pro-town to me, though thats about it. I can't say anything about Yuna, and can't really see the case for why she's prob town. (Though I think I did skim over those posts anyway)
The case for Yuna's pretty simple, though I have to be a bit vague on my information dispersal for self-protection, which I no longer think is as important with the free night, but we'll get to that in a bit.
I can say with near absolute certainty that she did not kill DK, and that creates two formulas, one for each scenario, 2 scummers and 3 scummers.
If we have 2 scummers, then one of them did the kill and the other did not. There are ten of us, though really 9 since we all know our own alignment and whether we did it.
If two scummers, the odds any individual players is a ninja is 2/9, and the odds a given person did the deed are 1/9. 50% of the odds of them being scum, if Yuna's a scummer, but didn't kill DK, she would only be 1/9, whereas anyone else is 2/9. For 3 scummers, it shifts to 3/9 and 2/9 for her, either way, she is less likely to be a scummer, she could still be one, it is simply less probable than random, that is sufficient at this time for me to strike her off my list of lynch candidates as a poor choice, but not to view her as def-town. Now, from the perspective of an y townie but me, this actually shifts, accepting me at my word on this and taking me for town, and knowing one's self to be town, changes other's odds for ninja-dom to 2/8 or 3/8, and her values to 1 in 8 or 2/8 respectively, there's other components I'll discuss should we mass claim that I feel work in her favor as well, but as said, she still deserves suspicion but should be assumed to be less likely to be scum than the average person. All this, again, is based off knowing she didn't kill DK, and knowing (presumably) that a scummer did, it proves nothing, merely tips the odds.
Now, in my opinion, though I don't expect to get the necessary support for this, our best move at this time is a structured massclaim. Were everyone to agree - or enough to force compliance - I would suggest we have everyone code their role into a message, then we claim openly and show where we coded. The coding aspect is tricky, and I have some suggestions and advice on how people can do this so as to limit the chance of it being cracked while showing it wasn't back-coded (decryption made up backwards to fit the newly desired role) while there may be some leaking from this, for practical purposes it would amount to the same effect as a mass simultaneous claim, and we'd have two shots to find our culprits off that before we'd be at risk of NK, with good odds of interference or protective roles stopping those attacks, since they'd only have 7 people to pick from and should have good odds of decreasing that through educated guesses from the mass claim and what follows.
I don't think people will accept this proposal, but let me point out before we discuss or reject it, that we often claim in mass on Day 3, rarely later than day 4, and for our purposes, the threat from massclaim today is identical to a day 3 mass claim. If we plan to massclaim on day 3, doing so today is of equal threat. More, it is quite probable that the ninjas haven't spent much time discussing fake RCs yet, day 2 rarely involves revealing so little need and you have to adapt as you see the roles come out. I think this can work, and if nothing else, it is a more appealing option than what we all know we will otherwise do, kill off low posters or BA voters or those who meet both criteria - those factors will likely still come into play, but it will leave room for much more meaningful discussion.
It goes without saying nobody should RC yet, we want everyone to reveal in such a fashion that they do not know anyone else's claim when they list theirs, then then need only state their role and show where they proclaimed it when everyone is done, even if some people slip up, we'll be no worse off then if they simply claimed normally, but a total success would equal a simultaneous claim and a partial - even assuming the ninjas take the time to try to decode, would be better than a normal claim. I will now claim, in such as way no one can doubt the claim I make is influenced by later claims, as an example
IPUFODTUDKQRWTRIONEFOR
Contained in that is my coded role message and sufficient data that on explanation it will be clear I was specifically claiming this particular thing, good luck anyone trying to crack that, it definitely isn't a piece of cake.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
2087 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
- 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
758 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
- 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
1229 Views
Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1198 Views
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1198 Views
Re: Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1268 Views
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1268 Views
plus...
- 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
1190 Views
Voting Record
- 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
1152 Views
Moving along
- 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
1427 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
658 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
1209 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
1346 Views
my current suspects
- 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
1388 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
690 Views
Expanding the list
- 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM
1227 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
- 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
1290 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
- 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
1066 Views
I can
- 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
1219 Views
Nay
- 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
1251 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
- 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
1235 Views
We need to come up with a plan
- 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
1207 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
- 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
1175 Views
? is the logical target
- 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
1140 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
1203 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
1158 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
- 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
1186 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
- 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
1155 Views
I think I have a plan
- 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
1327 Views
...erm...
- 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
1300 Views
Crypto tricks
- 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
1263 Views
Some thoughts...
- 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
1068 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
- 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
1150 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
- 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
1290 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
1191 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
1213 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
1122 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
- 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
1119 Views
That is correct. *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
700 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
- 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
1163 Views
Okay
- 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
1191 Views
Re: Okay
- 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
1139 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
- 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
667 Views
horsefeathers
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1116 Views
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1116 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
- 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
707 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this.
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
630 Views
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
630 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
- 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
1338 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
621 Views
A couple Questions
- 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
1125 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
- 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
1258 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
- 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
1140 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
- 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
1187 Views
what now?
- 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
1098 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
- 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
1219 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
- 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
1194 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
1238 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
- 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
1183 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
- 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
1241 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
732 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
1241 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
- 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
1172 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
- 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
1290 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
1252 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
1185 Views
eh, what the heck
- 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
1104 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
675 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
557 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
- 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
1060 Views
right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
1224 Views
Re: right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
1156 Views
EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
1182 Views
Re: EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
1207 Views
Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
1193 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
1215 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
1060 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
1123 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
1269 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
1129 Views
EBWOP
- 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
1130 Views
It's probably also worth noting
- 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
1199 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
1208 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
- 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
1238 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
- 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
1077 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
1135 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
1207 Views
not to mention...
- 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
1191 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
- 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
698 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1352 Views
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1352 Views
Somebody want to hammer?
- 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
1190 Views

*NM*