The Thing is the Head of Security for the Fan 4, so after Richards he be the most likely to know such a thing



Not an OMGUS vote - we've basically shown there must be at least one scummer voting for me no matter what, so if FT and Kronin are reasonably off the table, at least one of the remaining four must be a scummer, that's the truth everyone can see, from my perspective, as a townie, I know 1 is not enough, two becomes the absolute minimum and higher becomes even more likely, so 2/4 or more of those non-FT/Kron votes is scum. 50/50 is better lynch odds than me, the copping is untrustworthy, the 'no lynch' is demonstrabably less scummy than proposing to kill a basically confirmed townie, and we still have no reason to think I should have been bussed.



Well, at least you acknowledge the evidence is slim.




Originally my pressure on ? was used as part of the accusation on me, so now that that is shot down, it is proof he and I are both scum? Every accusation on me has a big 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' aspect, next people will acknowledge the no lynch really was primarily to shake the game back to life and get people talking, and that it is anti-town because a deadline or no lynch would have protected our investigators form revealing, or that I'm acting anti-town by having fought the lynch and forcing exposure. Clearly I should have warned the town that I had no plans and barring someone else presenting new evidence I couldn't think of anyway to move forward today that wouldn't cause more harm from info reveals. Oh wait, I did warn the town that most of the option I could think of to push forward for the day would probably be harmful. But that wouldn't make sense, I'm a scummer right? Just because I've never failed to lynch a townie on Day 2 as a scummer and joke all the time about how I view day 1 and 2 as free NKs? Nah, I definitely would prefer to waste a kill, of a townie, the regular outcome of Day 2 when I'm scum, along with all the info the day would produce.



My plans don't usually have large backfire elements to them, as viilains go I've read the Evil Overlord List, I do tend to prepare for unexpected oddball stuff but I don't gamble on things like that happening. "Hey ?, tomorrow I will suggest something that will cause a wave vote on me, make sure to jump right into that with a vote minus colon so that if I get there before the mod does I can object to it" doesn't appear to have a lot of upsides for the risk. My style would be more "Hey ?, if something liek this should happen, vote for me then unvote fairly quickly, saying its best to hear my defense."

And this gets back to the whole bussing scenario. IT just doesn't fit, you've been a scummer with me before, most of the players have, none of this fits my MO. If I were a scummer mason I'd specifically warn my allies to be careful about lynching me because my death would give the town two free innocent coppings, Hobo and Fox. My allies, if trying to establish themselves as votes on me would vote and unvote in these kind of circumstances, none would risk dropping the hammer for the bus.

I mean seriously, I think your scum so that's why I think you 'buy into this' and the investigators have reaosn but let's just go through this.

Theroetical Scummer "Thought Train"
Isaac and X are scum
Isaac gets voted on for suggesting no lynch
Isaac is a mason with two allies who will be effectively def-town if he dies.
Isaac is very unlikely to go down easy on a lynch
Isaac is typically the scummer's primary tactician

Here's a big one: FT will be confirmed townie as a definite non-busser as first vote, and is generally considered a massive threat in his own right, his chief rival, Isaac, will no longer be available to counter him because we killed him to prove FT was clean

So X says to him/herself, 'hey, let's bus Isaac, the evidence on him is very slim, he will certainly mount a defense, and his death would confirm three townies, all of whom are serious veteran players dating back to game 1-3' THat don't make a whole lot of sense, heck one of the reasons presented for offing me now that most of the original evidence has been beaten down is that my death will tell us something about the masons, both innocent if I'm guilty, nothing it all if I'm not. I think the bussing conundrum isn't really hitting as hard as it could be because I'm trying to avoid sounding arrogant but why on Earth would fellow Skrull want kill me off? Out of all the games, the scum have never won unless I was modding, and that just once. "Kill off our ace card and hand them two confirmed townie masons and FT on slim evidence" ain't exactly a probable strategy, and remember, 1 is the absolute minimum number of bussers, it still requires only 3 scum and every single townie besides Hobo and Fox to have been right there and willing to vote, when we typically have a fair nubmer of people off RBIRL or not around for the night, that number of votes just requires a bigger pool than the available townies wer elikely to make up. So odds would strongly favor 2 bussers, its pretty unlikely even one would have bussed under those cirucmstances, let alone 2?

Or we have a vastly more logical option. With our all roles the scum have extra edges, in numbers/and or ability. 4 with a single extra kill is highly probable. The lightning dash to vote on slim evidence wouldn't be an utter loss if they couldn't finish the game on night 2, and with 11 players, 4 scum, and most extra NKs these days usually not usable till night 2, an opportunity suddenly presents itself, say FT voting for me, presenting a decent case, well might as well give it a try right? Take out the huge threat in a way that makes FT - another huge threat - look bad, and that night try for a double kill, game over. It works pretty well even if the only have three or don't have an extra NK but they've got to be backing some massive firepower with all these roles.

So take for the moment that I'm town and look at this from my perspective.

I know scummers are voting for me
I know they have a lot of edges to counter-balance ours
I am a very logical target for attack, the town has never lost when I was one, ever
FT is a townie

The Scum are facing the two players considered most potent in terms of exposing scum and generating lynches, and one of them has just accused the other. They number four and/or have an extra kill - those three options are vastly more likely than just 3 scum. By taking me out, they have a shot to end the game right there, and if not, they go into the next day with FT to be blamed for my death, literally offering to die if I come up town if the thought hadn't already occurred to them. If they had 4 and no extra kill, they go into tomorrow 5-4, LyLo, if 3 and a extra kill, 5-3, also LyLo. Even if the were only three with no NK, they'd go into tomorrow nearly LyLo, with 9 players surviving and 3 scum and a decent lynch chance on FT and suspicion probably falling on surviving masons.

Now bussing seems real unlikely, but rushing sure does. I've listed off so many reasons why bussing doesn't plausibly work that I think it eclipses why rushing does. Isn't, logically, rushing far more likely than bussing under these circumstances?

If the town survives my lynch to get to tomorrow, they're gonna realize that the scummer pool is real tiny, so your efforts to accuse FT and ? seems a bit of a gamble to make sure that pool doesn't shrink to small, and even 3 with no extra kill you'd only need to get one townie lynched. We can never be sure about anyone, but FT is about as close to deftown as one can get, and the premade colon error theory is frankly ridiculous, I freely admit to being a schemer, but my schemes only include blatantly foreseeable disastrous consequences as the problem to be dealt with, I don't make them, why on Earth would I tell ? to put an error in his vote for me? I'd just have told him to vote for me and quickly unvote, same effect and it doesn't risk someone coming by to tell him to fix it or Beet ending the day before I could object or not deciding my way. I take this as another indicator your scum.