Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
Isaac Send a noteboard - 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
I've been engrossed in ToM and Fallout New Vegas and work. Those three make up my days. And all three are awesome.
So, I believe ? about fist. And yay about knowing I'm not the killer. You don't need to confirm it, you can just take my word for it right?
A problem here is that ? has given us a perfect motive for a kill. Apparently fist did tell him of his abilities, which surprises the heck out of me since short of a Note from Mod saying he was clean I would sure as hell never tell my mason ally on night 1 that I had a role worth snuffing, unless I was BP, in which case telling someone your a doc or hinting at some secret info worth keeping that way is a solid tactic. This however, is a conundrum, I've got conflicting scenarios that make ? the killer and which make it absurd as well, but they only work if he and/or his nominal dark allies followed the logic like I would, and scummers often don't act logically, even in 20/20 hindsight.
Here's what we actually know
Logically ? or allies killed him when they heard his role and realized what a threat he was, had I been involved the only thing which might have kept me from killing fist was fear it was a trap, because if I were fist, that's what I would have done if faced by a mason ally, again a conundrum, because it relies around trying to gauge how scheming everyone involved would have been and its not a WIFOM situation, the alternative scenario isn't just as useful, revealing your role to someone you don't really trust truthfully because you figure he'll think your lying isn't really a legit WIFOM, nor does fist have my own issue of having to worry about everyone viewing your every action as not just a possible manipulation but guaranteed even if truthful to have an ulterior motive
The whole situation stinks of not just missing data but an outright screw up on interpretation by the bad guys, its just where did it take place at? If ? is a townie, then we have zero reason to think the scummers knew his role and my well-practiced assassin's eye sees nothing fist did yesterday as reasonable grounds for a NK. Now, they may have misinterpreted one of his character claims as a probable doc or SPLOG-wielder for instance, but nothing he said yesterday sets off my buzzers.
Of course, they could have killed him to throw suspicion onto ?, but that only works if they knew fist and ? were masons, which would be hard to find out without knowing who they were and it appears I'm one of a small minority familiar with Marvel and ? as quicksilver and mason only stuck out to me as an option because ? leads the list and I compiled the claim table, meaning I basically memorized his options by seeing it a dozen times, even then it was only a background thin option since I was looking for possible mason groups, it was still just a wisp until I saw fist dead as Scarlet Witch... that's an incredibly thin basis to assume the dark siders were able to make all those jumps of logic considering one of them is basically unique to me, as table compiler, and the other, Marvel Expertise, is apparently also very rare. Thus if ? is town and the scummers were trying to off fist because they suspected he was a mason and they wanted to cast suspicion on his ally about the only reasonable way they could have done that is if 'they' is 'me' and I wouldn't whack someone with that intent on such thin basis, not profitable enough and the logics too wispy. So we can remove 'blame the kill on the surviving mason' as a motive, its just too flawed. Basically the scummers had no logical motive to kill fist if ? was a townie.
However, as mentioned, ? as traitor mason has some serious flaws too. Starting with Fist having no logical reason to tell ? his role and a evil ? having less reason to tell us he had, since that gives him ironclad motive and he obviously had opportunity if scum. Makes damn little sense, "Yes, I'm the number 1 suspect... oh and by the way, fist in a moment of improbable trust told me his powers, which are obviously murder-worthy" is as defenses go roughly the same as jumping out of a burning plane with your parachute securely tied around your neck, since lying and saying, when it can't be disproved and is far more logical "Fair enough if I knew his role and was evil I'd want him dead, but you know how masons are, zero trust, why would he tell me that? and if I didn't know, why would I have him killed since he's otherwise just a mason and I'd be the obvious suspect for his death?"... unfortunately ? is a new player and might not know we all regard mason groups as scummer central, even if he is scum, and might well say that, and also, by not saying that he's indicating he's not fully immersed in our group paranoia yet and thus doesn't have motive to lie about it... but that would still be applicable whether he was town or scum.
Makes my head hurt
There remain plenty of oddball options, the scummers knew something, the scummers thought they knew something and got it right for all the wrong reasons - that happens a lot - the scummers took a random attack. We can probably rule out fist using his action sponge, even if we ignore the doc option someone would have indicated by now if they'd been diverted and with as many roles as we have silence on this indicates none of us want to RC to confirm he didn't use it. Removing all these less options we have two core ones:
Both those scenarios seem plausible under the specific circumstances that we know, all the others just seem to require either too many coincidences or too many stunning leaps of faith or ignoring logic, both of the above have some of that too. I don't really have a vibe on this either way and this isn't day 1, hopefully we'll get some more info as people trickle back in from reading ToM.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
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I see two avenues to discuss here
03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
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I was thinking about number 1.
03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
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Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
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I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
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O.......K..........
05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
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Did Fist use his power last Night?
06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
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It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
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Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
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Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
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I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
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Interesting.
11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
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It's certainly possible.
11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
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Now I'm curious
11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
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Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
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Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
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Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
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a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
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also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
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That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
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You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain. *NM*
05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
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Hypocop? *NM*
03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
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So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
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I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
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Vote: No Lynch
13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
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I am very much opposed to this idea
13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
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Then offer an alternative
13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
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Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
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Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
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I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
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Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
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LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
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Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
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Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
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After this whole argument I've had with FT...
13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
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People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
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Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
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Vote: Isaac
13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
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Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
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Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
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What was scummy?
14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
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Re: What was scummy?
14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
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Extrmely thin
14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
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Actually...
14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
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Re: Actually...
14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
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Did you guys just blitz me?
14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
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Your not hammered yet are you?
14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
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I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
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I'm potentially alive on a technicality
15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
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Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
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Sure
15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
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I think so.
15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
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Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
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Re: Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
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Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
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Re: Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
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I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
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EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
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I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
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I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
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Thanks, and a question too
15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
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Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
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Jeez, when it rains, it pours
15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
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OK Isaac
15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
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My Defense Posts
16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
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Defense A: The Fantastic Four
16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
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Defense B: The Numbers Game
16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
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"What motive would a scummer have"?
16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
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Without any further questions though?
16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
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If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
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Defense C: The Intro Flavor
16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
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Eh ...
16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
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Re: Eh ...
17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
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We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
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Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
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Yes, that was it.
16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
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Re: Yes, that was it.
17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
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Not at all.
17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
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Well, that's a borderline lie
17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
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How do you figure?
17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
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I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
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All right, fair enough.
17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
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Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
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By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
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I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
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Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
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Re: Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
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Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
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That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
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Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
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Actually that sounds a good plan
17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
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Glad to hear you agree with yourself
17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
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:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
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Ah yes, I noticed that as well
17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
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I just caught that
17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
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No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
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Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
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I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
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Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
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Re: Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
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I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
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Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
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In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
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What the balls?
17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
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I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
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Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
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Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
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Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
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I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
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i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
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Re: i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
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They're also Marvel characters
18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
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LOL, duly noted
18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
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Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
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Sure
18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
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Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
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Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
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OK, here's a question for beet:
21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
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You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
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But we do get information
22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
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<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
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Well, congrats *NM*
22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
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Since this is a first for both of us...
22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
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When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
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Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
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Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
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Isaac has been lynched!
22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
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I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
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I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
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I might just mount your head on my wall .
22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
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I consider myself an integral part in this group.
22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
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