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Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.

The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.

Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:

1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)

So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.

Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.

So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Day 2: Superstar - 28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM 2130 Views
Current Votes: STEPHEN HAS BEEN LYNCHED - 28/10/2012 03:47:08 PM 1230 Views
Nobody died? *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:22:17 PM 744 Views
Nope *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:33:40 PM 729 Views
Oh, well I guess Yuna is really who she claims to be then. - 28/10/2012 05:24:03 PM 1175 Views
season 4, episode 17 (google is my friend..) *NM* - 28/10/2012 06:58:20 PM 661 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM 717 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM 790 Views
I concur. - 29/10/2012 02:11:38 AM 1249 Views
Re: I concur. - 29/10/2012 09:03:39 PM 1211 Views
So what's the point? - 30/10/2012 02:32:43 AM 1160 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM 1251 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM 1206 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that - 29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM 1093 Views
Oh, right. Sorry, I misread that. *NM* - 29/10/2012 11:34:37 PM 664 Views
I don't think that does work. - 30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM 1276 Views
The Cairhien Game - 30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM 1126 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow . - 30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM 1001 Views
I must say that game crosse my mind - 30/10/2012 09:23:30 AM 1059 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 06:27:32 PM 1213 Views
Interesting results - 29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM 1119 Views
maybe a 4th option? - 29/10/2012 01:20:14 PM 1249 Views
No, I don't think so. - 30/10/2012 02:35:49 AM 1605 Views
It is, but not too likely - 30/10/2012 03:15:31 AM 1069 Views
What now? - 31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM 1134 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages - 31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM 1135 Views
I think Hypocopping would be good idea. *NM* - 31/10/2012 09:36:00 PM 684 Views
You were targeted? - 02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM 1084 Views
Why is that anti-town? - 02/11/2012 04:06:54 PM 1133 Views
Okay then. - 02/11/2012 05:14:18 PM 1053 Views
All kinds of RBIRL - 01/11/2012 04:09:42 AM 1141 Views
We understand - 01/11/2012 08:25:34 AM 1209 Views
Sorry for disappearing, kinda RBIRL - 02/11/2012 12:06:09 AM 1156 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2] - 02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM 1213 Views
Darth_Katie - not-guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 04:13:07 PM 752 Views
Re: Hypocopping [TABLE] - 02/11/2012 04:46:44 PM 1202 Views
Artsapat - guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:52:59 PM 1170 Views
Yunalesca - Guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:06:43 PM 783 Views
Isaac - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:53:54 PM 798 Views
? - not guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 09:21:10 PM 780 Views
Tagia - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:04:51 PM 767 Views
Artsapat - Guilty *NM* - 03/11/2012 05:06:19 AM 730 Views
? - Guilty *NM* - 04/11/2012 03:08:31 AM 746 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday. - 05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM 1325 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours... - 06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM 1266 Views
I'm not sure if I understand this correctly... - 06/11/2012 07:47:06 AM 1127 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM 1178 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM 1323 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases. - 07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM 1162 Views
I still haven't heard the case - 08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM 1140 Views
One of them was the only non-human in a monster-hunting theme. - 13/11/2012 06:41:30 PM 1088 Views
Oh, I assumed there was more - 13/11/2012 07:01:54 PM 1028 Views
Yuna's role - 06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM 1158 Views
If that is the case, you just made a major blunder. - 06/11/2012 11:41:03 AM 1051 Views
... - 06/11/2012 06:13:11 PM 1015 Views
*facepalm* - 06/11/2012 04:26:23 PM 1078 Views
... what? *NM* - 06/11/2012 05:33:08 PM 664 Views
What ... ? - 07/11/2012 06:23:33 AM 1457 Views
Re: What ... ? - 07/11/2012 09:11:04 AM 1048 Views
Most important question! - 07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM 1082 Views
Indeed, I noticed that - 07/11/2012 02:41:37 PM 1121 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM 653 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM* - 08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM 775 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM* - 08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM 851 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message. - 08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM 1306 Views
I did...?? - 10/11/2012 03:00:19 PM 1004 Views
This one? - 13/11/2012 01:48:19 AM 995 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon - 07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM 1127 Views
really sorry *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:17:16 PM 707 Views
Well to me... - 08/11/2012 11:03:58 AM 1035 Views
I don't see any reason you would need to roleclaim. - 08/11/2012 05:45:53 PM 1149 Views
ok - 08/11/2012 10:00:35 PM 1140 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha! - 09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM 1059 Views
No worries man. - 09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM 1115 Views
Nothing too bad... - 09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM 1023 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM* - 09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM 737 Views
Sure, why not. *NM* - 09/11/2012 11:18:47 PM 752 Views
I found Artsapat Innocent *NM* - 10/11/2012 05:23:20 PM 766 Views
RBIRL - 11/11/2012 09:06:16 AM 1115 Views
So now what? *NM* - 11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM 616 Views
Can I ask for reasons...? - 11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM 1198 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got, - 11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM 1166 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games.... - 13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM 1037 Views
Not to 50/50 randomize them, but definitely ot randomize them - 13/11/2012 07:14:08 PM 1126 Views
Ahhh very true *NM* - 13/11/2012 08:42:39 PM 673 Views
Re: So now what? - 12/11/2012 06:46:50 PM 1123 Views
I agree - 12/11/2012 11:11:23 PM 1140 Views
Okay I'll respond to it above *NM* - 13/11/2012 01:44:15 AM 626 Views
Re: So now what? - 13/11/2012 05:18:34 PM 1129 Views
RBIRL until next Monday. - 13/11/2012 03:15:46 AM 1469 Views
*cough cough* - 13/11/2012 03:45:45 PM 1005 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:31:26 PM 517 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:51:11 PM 708 Views
Well... - 13/11/2012 07:16:36 PM 1063 Views
Silly Isaac, of course it does. *NM* - 14/11/2012 07:30:42 PM 797 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM 1186 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 14/11/2012 11:04:44 AM 1103 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 16/11/2012 11:57:26 PM 1151 Views
I should point out... - 14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM 1154 Views
Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 05:49:45 PM 1196 Views
Re: Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 09:38:53 PM 1152 Views
RBIRL for a day or so - 15/11/2012 01:47:20 AM 1061 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM* - 18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM 727 Views
Well, you already know my favourite . *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM 701 Views
Someone else *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM 734 Views
Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM 1075 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 09:58:29 AM 1029 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 02:45:21 PM 1200 Views
sounds like a plan *NM* - 18/11/2012 08:37:24 AM 822 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM 1085 Views
I think it is pretty safe to say.... - 18/11/2012 02:13:12 PM 1098 Views
Yuna is probably not mafia. - 18/11/2012 07:35:44 PM 977 Views
Sorry for off-radaring for a few days. - 18/11/2012 10:08:57 PM 1150 Views
for myself - 19/11/2012 09:44:03 AM 1036 Views
Re: for myself - 19/11/2012 11:27:04 AM 1217 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM 983 Views
time to make a choice - 19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM 1078 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself? - 19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM 1048 Views
I concur. - 20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM 1153 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM 1115 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM 1061 Views
again - 20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM 1093 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions... - 20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM 1035 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM* - 20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM 853 Views
what? why? *NM* - 21/11/2012 12:47:18 AM 670 Views
You sound like a cult leader to me *NM* - 21/11/2012 02:25:52 AM 728 Views
Re: again - 21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM 1135 Views
clarification - 21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM 1095 Views
Well, yeah... - 21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM 1018 Views
Umm...Idea. - 22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM 1109 Views
I've considered that... - 22/11/2012 05:27:24 AM 1013 Views
Yes I realized that as well... *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:03:15 PM 698 Views
I think I;m happy to vote for yuna right now. - 22/11/2012 02:35:09 AM 1121 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM 757 Views
what part of 'i have no powers of recruitment' don't you get? - 22/11/2012 10:24:27 AM 1102 Views
The... - 22/11/2012 01:04:05 PM 1060 Views
Re: The... - 22/11/2012 01:36:44 PM 1094 Views
I'm just throwing this out there. - 18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM 1180 Views
True *NM* - 19/11/2012 12:10:04 AM 751 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea. - 19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM 994 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM 693 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone? - 20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM 1054 Views
Serial killer and cult leader? - 20/11/2012 08:44:21 PM 1126 Views
RBIRL - 22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM 1124 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM* - 22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM 632 Views
Right... *NM* - 25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM 680 Views
Left... *NM* - 25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM 754 Views
Ah someone lives! - 25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM 1063 Views
Well, so do I? - 26/11/2012 08:26:55 AM 1118 Views
I do live too.. - 26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM 1102 Views
Where did you vote? - 26/11/2012 07:04:22 PM 1080 Views
*cough* Sorry about that. It's there now. *NM* - 26/11/2012 08:01:29 PM 708 Views
Unvote - 26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM 1100 Views
But that'd make three scum... - 26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM 1075 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen? - 26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM 1372 Views
Sure, why not. - 26/11/2012 11:39:02 PM 1096 Views
Sure me too *NM* - 27/11/2012 03:23:42 AM 711 Views
Sounds like a plan. *NM* - 27/11/2012 05:39:17 AM 707 Views
I concur.. *NM* - 28/11/2012 09:24:35 AM 700 Views
Sorry, I've been ill. - 28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM 1142 Views
Feeling better? *NM* - 29/11/2012 01:00:52 AM 717 Views
I'm mostly recovered. - 29/11/2012 01:37:50 AM 1218 Views
That's a bold claim. - 29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM 1035 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented. - 29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM 1225 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM 1216 Views
Vote: Stephen - 30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM 1089 Views
Well, I guess I'm technically lynched. - 30/11/2012 01:53:13 PM 1274 Views
Ouch. - 30/11/2012 04:38:45 PM 1100 Views
That makes quite alot sense actually. Vote:Stephen *NM* - 30/11/2012 09:01:01 AM 703 Views
back from Minecon...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *NM* - 26/11/2012 07:16:28 PM 681 Views
Twilight - 30/11/2012 03:58:02 PM 1199 Views
Day 3 should be starting within a day or two *NM* - 05/12/2012 03:36:38 PM 688 Views
...and you expect still to end it before X-mas ^^ *NM* - 05/12/2012 06:47:57 PM 741 Views

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