Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen
Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.
The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.
Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:
1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)
So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.
Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.
So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.
Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:
1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)
So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.
Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.
So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Day 2: Superstar
28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM
- 1924 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM*
28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM
- 616 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM*
28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM
- 694 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be.
29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM
- 1055 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be.
29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM
- 979 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that
29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM
- 885 Views
I don't think that does work.
30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM
- 1098 Views
The Cairhien Game
30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM
- 912 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow
.
30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM
- 834 Views
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Interesting results
29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM
- 902 Views
What now?
31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM
- 958 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages
31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM
- 964 Views
You were targeted?
02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM
- 864 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2]
02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM
- 1031 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday.
05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM
- 1088 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours...
06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM
- 1058 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching.
06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM
- 947 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching.
07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM
- 1116 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases.
07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM
- 950 Views
I still haven't heard the case
08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM
- 942 Views
Yuna's role
06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM
- 959 Views
Most important question!
07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM
- 892 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM*
07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM
- 559 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM*
08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM
- 655 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM*
08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM
- 615 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message.
08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM
- 1098 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon
07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM
- 944 Views
you shouldn't necessarily claim because it's very plausible I misinterpreted the message *NM*
07/11/2012 11:22:32 PM
- 546 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha!
09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM
- 860 Views
No worries man.
09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM
- 908 Views
Nothing too bad...
09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM
- 838 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM*
09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM
- 651 Views
So now what? *NM*
11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM
- 502 Views
Can I ask for reasons...?
11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM
- 856 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got,
11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM
- 980 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games....
13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM
- 893 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga
13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM
- 980 Views
I should point out...
14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM
- 816 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM*
18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM
- 610 Views
Well, you already know my favourite
. *NM*
18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM
- 610 Views
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Someone else
*NM*
18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM
- 618 Views
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Yeah, I'll probably do that.
18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM
- 876 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan
18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM
- 865 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan
19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM
- 800 Views
time to make a choice
19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM
- 901 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself?
19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM
- 880 Views
I concur.
20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM
- 951 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga.
20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM
- 920 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga.
20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM
- 862 Views
again
20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM
- 900 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions...
20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM
- 823 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM*
20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM
- 606 Views
Re: again
21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM
- 936 Views
clarification
21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM
- 910 Views
Well, yeah...
21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM
- 818 Views
Umm...Idea.
22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM
- 945 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM*
22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM
- 644 Views
I'm just throwing this out there.
18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM
- 970 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea.
19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM
- 811 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM*
20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM
- 596 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone?
20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM
- 870 Views
RBIRL
22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM
- 937 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM*
22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM
- 537 Views
Right... *NM*
25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM
- 582 Views
Left... *NM*
25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM
- 659 Views
Ah someone lives!
25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM
- 865 Views
I do live too..
26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM
- 883 Views
Unvote
26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM
- 913 Views
But that'd make three scum...
26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM
- 874 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen?
26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM
- 1194 Views
Sorry, I've been ill.
28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM
- 959 Views
That's a bold claim.
29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM
- 819 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented.
29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM
- 945 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen
29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
- 998 Views
Vote: Stephen
30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM
- 913 Views