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Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.

The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.

Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:

1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)

So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.

Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.

So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Day 2: Superstar - 28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM 1944 Views
Current Votes: STEPHEN HAS BEEN LYNCHED - 28/10/2012 03:47:08 PM 1061 Views
Nobody died? *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:22:17 PM 670 Views
Nope *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:33:40 PM 643 Views
Oh, well I guess Yuna is really who she claims to be then. - 28/10/2012 05:24:03 PM 994 Views
season 4, episode 17 (google is my friend..) *NM* - 28/10/2012 06:58:20 PM 583 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM 631 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM 713 Views
I concur. - 29/10/2012 02:11:38 AM 1081 Views
Re: I concur. - 29/10/2012 09:03:39 PM 1032 Views
So what's the point? - 30/10/2012 02:32:43 AM 961 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM 1084 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM 1017 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that - 29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM 928 Views
Oh, right. Sorry, I misread that. *NM* - 29/10/2012 11:34:37 PM 580 Views
I don't think that does work. - 30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM 1120 Views
The Cairhien Game - 30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM 939 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow . - 30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM 855 Views
I must say that game crosse my mind - 30/10/2012 09:23:30 AM 907 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 06:27:32 PM 1022 Views
Interesting results - 29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM 928 Views
maybe a 4th option? - 29/10/2012 01:20:14 PM 1072 Views
No, I don't think so. - 30/10/2012 02:35:49 AM 1338 Views
It is, but not too likely - 30/10/2012 03:15:31 AM 858 Views
What now? - 31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM 976 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages - 31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM 986 Views
I think Hypocopping would be good idea. *NM* - 31/10/2012 09:36:00 PM 615 Views
You were targeted? - 02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM 904 Views
Why is that anti-town? - 02/11/2012 04:06:54 PM 944 Views
Okay then. - 02/11/2012 05:14:18 PM 872 Views
All kinds of RBIRL - 01/11/2012 04:09:42 AM 960 Views
We understand - 01/11/2012 08:25:34 AM 1028 Views
Sorry for disappearing, kinda RBIRL - 02/11/2012 12:06:09 AM 984 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2] - 02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM 1049 Views
Darth_Katie - not-guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 04:13:07 PM 672 Views
Re: Hypocopping [TABLE] - 02/11/2012 04:46:44 PM 1017 Views
Artsapat - guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:52:59 PM 1002 Views
Yunalesca - Guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:06:43 PM 705 Views
Isaac - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:53:54 PM 716 Views
? - not guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 09:21:10 PM 701 Views
Tagia - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:04:51 PM 694 Views
Artsapat - Guilty *NM* - 03/11/2012 05:06:19 AM 653 Views
? - Guilty *NM* - 04/11/2012 03:08:31 AM 665 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday. - 05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM 1126 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours... - 06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM 1081 Views
I'm not sure if I understand this correctly... - 06/11/2012 07:47:06 AM 940 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM 991 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM 1148 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases. - 07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM 990 Views
I still haven't heard the case - 08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM 968 Views
One of them was the only non-human in a monster-hunting theme. - 13/11/2012 06:41:30 PM 936 Views
Oh, I assumed there was more - 13/11/2012 07:01:54 PM 862 Views
Yuna's role - 06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM 998 Views
If that is the case, you just made a major blunder. - 06/11/2012 11:41:03 AM 875 Views
... - 06/11/2012 06:13:11 PM 868 Views
*facepalm* - 06/11/2012 04:26:23 PM 923 Views
... what? *NM* - 06/11/2012 05:33:08 PM 594 Views
What ... ? - 07/11/2012 06:23:33 AM 1215 Views
Re: What ... ? - 07/11/2012 09:11:04 AM 880 Views
Most important question! - 07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM 916 Views
Indeed, I noticed that - 07/11/2012 02:41:37 PM 971 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM 572 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM* - 08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM 688 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM* - 08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM 630 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message. - 08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM 1134 Views
I did...?? - 10/11/2012 03:00:19 PM 857 Views
This one? - 13/11/2012 01:48:19 AM 856 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon - 07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM 967 Views
really sorry *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:17:16 PM 630 Views
Well to me... - 08/11/2012 11:03:58 AM 865 Views
I don't see any reason you would need to roleclaim. - 08/11/2012 05:45:53 PM 965 Views
ok - 08/11/2012 10:00:35 PM 969 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha! - 09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM 878 Views
No worries man. - 09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM 935 Views
Nothing too bad... - 09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM 857 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM* - 09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM 665 Views
Sure, why not. *NM* - 09/11/2012 11:18:47 PM 535 Views
I found Artsapat Innocent *NM* - 10/11/2012 05:23:20 PM 649 Views
RBIRL - 11/11/2012 09:06:16 AM 956 Views
So now what? *NM* - 11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM 532 Views
Can I ask for reasons...? - 11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM 900 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got, - 11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM 1001 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games.... - 13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM 910 Views
Not to 50/50 randomize them, but definitely ot randomize them - 13/11/2012 07:14:08 PM 948 Views
Ahhh very true *NM* - 13/11/2012 08:42:39 PM 602 Views
Re: So now what? - 12/11/2012 06:46:50 PM 968 Views
I agree - 12/11/2012 11:11:23 PM 992 Views
Okay I'll respond to it above *NM* - 13/11/2012 01:44:15 AM 553 Views
Re: So now what? - 13/11/2012 05:18:34 PM 946 Views
RBIRL until next Monday. - 13/11/2012 03:15:46 AM 1208 Views
*cough cough* - 13/11/2012 03:45:45 PM 871 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:31:26 PM 445 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:51:11 PM 643 Views
Well... - 13/11/2012 07:16:36 PM 905 Views
Silly Isaac, of course it does. *NM* - 14/11/2012 07:30:42 PM 715 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM 1007 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 14/11/2012 11:04:44 AM 946 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 16/11/2012 11:57:26 PM 970 Views
I should point out... - 14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM 849 Views
Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 05:49:45 PM 1013 Views
Re: Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 09:38:53 PM 965 Views
RBIRL for a day or so - 15/11/2012 01:47:20 AM 906 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM* - 18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM 642 Views
Well, you already know my favourite . *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM 621 Views
Someone else *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM 648 Views
Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM 904 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 09:58:29 AM 857 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 02:45:21 PM 1002 Views
sounds like a plan *NM* - 18/11/2012 08:37:24 AM 588 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM 909 Views
I think it is pretty safe to say.... - 18/11/2012 02:13:12 PM 906 Views
Yuna is probably not mafia. - 18/11/2012 07:35:44 PM 804 Views
Sorry for off-radaring for a few days. - 18/11/2012 10:08:57 PM 957 Views
for myself - 19/11/2012 09:44:03 AM 893 Views
Re: for myself - 19/11/2012 11:27:04 AM 1026 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM 827 Views
time to make a choice - 19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM 925 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself? - 19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM 898 Views
I concur. - 20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM 984 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM 948 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM 884 Views
again - 20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM 933 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions... - 20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM 860 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM* - 20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM 620 Views
what? why? *NM* - 21/11/2012 12:47:18 AM 584 Views
You sound like a cult leader to me *NM* - 21/11/2012 02:25:52 AM 647 Views
Re: again - 21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM 974 Views
clarification - 21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM 947 Views
Well, yeah... - 21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM 841 Views
Umm...Idea. - 22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM 967 Views
I've considered that... - 22/11/2012 05:27:24 AM 842 Views
Yes I realized that as well... *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:03:15 PM 620 Views
I think I;m happy to vote for yuna right now. - 22/11/2012 02:35:09 AM 926 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM 656 Views
what part of 'i have no powers of recruitment' don't you get? - 22/11/2012 10:24:27 AM 933 Views
The... - 22/11/2012 01:04:05 PM 911 Views
Re: The... - 22/11/2012 01:36:44 PM 896 Views
I'm just throwing this out there. - 18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM 989 Views
True *NM* - 19/11/2012 12:10:04 AM 668 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea. - 19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM 842 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM 610 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone? - 20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM 897 Views
Serial killer and cult leader? - 20/11/2012 08:44:21 PM 967 Views
RBIRL - 22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM 974 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM* - 22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM 552 Views
Right... *NM* - 25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM 603 Views
Left... *NM* - 25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM 673 Views
Ah someone lives! - 25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM 893 Views
Well, so do I? - 26/11/2012 08:26:55 AM 952 Views
I do live too.. - 26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM 922 Views
Where did you vote? - 26/11/2012 07:04:22 PM 916 Views
*cough* Sorry about that. It's there now. *NM* - 26/11/2012 08:01:29 PM 630 Views
Unvote - 26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM 930 Views
But that'd make three scum... - 26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM 915 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen? - 26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM 1215 Views
Sure, why not. - 26/11/2012 11:39:02 PM 958 Views
Sure me too *NM* - 27/11/2012 03:23:42 AM 636 Views
Sounds like a plan. *NM* - 27/11/2012 05:39:17 AM 628 Views
I concur.. *NM* - 28/11/2012 09:24:35 AM 622 Views
Sorry, I've been ill. - 28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM 979 Views
Feeling better? *NM* - 29/11/2012 01:00:52 AM 640 Views
I'm mostly recovered. - 29/11/2012 01:37:50 AM 943 Views
That's a bold claim. - 29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM 845 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented. - 29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM 975 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM 1022 Views
Vote: Stephen - 30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM 933 Views
Well, I guess I'm technically lynched. - 30/11/2012 01:53:13 PM 1032 Views
Ouch. - 30/11/2012 04:38:45 PM 931 Views
That makes quite alot sense actually. Vote:Stephen *NM* - 30/11/2012 09:01:01 AM 634 Views
back from Minecon...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *NM* - 26/11/2012 07:16:28 PM 608 Views
Twilight - 30/11/2012 03:58:02 PM 1029 Views
Day 3 should be starting within a day or two *NM* - 05/12/2012 03:36:38 PM 608 Views
...and you expect still to end it before X-mas ^^ *NM* - 05/12/2012 06:47:57 PM 651 Views

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