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Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen Isaac Send a noteboard - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM
The whole claim is pretty 'convenient', presents a role we're unlikely to have - watchers being rare even in big games but well known - thus making it a pretty safe claim and matching your HC.

The problem here is you suspected Taiga, now a watcher sees who direct night actions at a player, not what they do. It's usefulness when targeted at a suspected scummer is pretty small then. People rarely NK good scapegoats, were I scum Yuna and Taiga and anyone who didn't vote for Rana yesterday would be at the bottom of my NK list barring some strong indicator they were a town power role. If they're a known suspect, it's handy from a watcher POV for trying to figure out who the cop is, for a known probable NK target, for finding out who the doc is. So pretty much your only logical reason for checking out someone you suspect isn't because you suspect them, it's because you think others suspect them and you're hoping to be able to ID an investigator role. A townie trying to find out covertly who the cop is isn't a bad thing but that's a tough maneuver in terms of the odds for minimal gain. Knowing who the cop is for a townie really only matters in event of a double-claim, itself a rare thing that usually ends badly for the fake claimant.

Now, we're way outside of plausibility here, because one is weighing all these stacking improbabilities against the flat out one of watching someone who'd be a good Night target or even a random player and finding out who struck. Just to review this one:

1) I will target someone I think is a scummer (call it 50/50 and that generous)
2) I will assume, in spite of their being contradictory evidence (Rana, a known scummer, voting for Taiga) that other people suspect Taiga enough to investigate. (Maybe 1 in 4)
3) That another scummer, not Taiga (in spite of one already being dead, 50/50 there's another) will false claim as cop (1 in 4 at best).
4) That your announcing yourself as a watcher during a double-cop-claim would make a difference when in all probability it would get you murdered as an asusmed co-conspirator. Call it 50/50 though)

So .5x.25x.5x.25x.5 or 1 in 128, less than 1%... not really a good action plan. Other scenarios are actually worse, like trying to ID an RBer, who could only be acting on a probable scummer if they were a Town Rber - very rare - or if the person wasn't a scummer.

Really just going over that because the 'I hoped to find the cop' is the only sane reason to go watching a player you suspect.

So our options here are that you're lying or that you seriously blundered with your Night Action strategy.
Vote: Stephen
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Day 2: Superstar - 28/10/2012 03:45:56 PM 2475 Views
Current Votes: STEPHEN HAS BEEN LYNCHED - 28/10/2012 03:47:08 PM 1580 Views
Nobody died? *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:22:17 PM 911 Views
Nope *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:33:40 PM 903 Views
Oh, well I guess Yuna is really who she claims to be then. - 28/10/2012 05:24:03 PM 1507 Views
season 4, episode 17 (google is my friend..) *NM* - 28/10/2012 06:58:20 PM 849 Views
Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:24:47 PM 907 Views
EBWOP This was supposed to be a reply to Taiga's post, above. *NM* - 28/10/2012 08:25:16 PM 969 Views
I concur. - 29/10/2012 02:11:38 AM 1583 Views
Re: I concur. - 29/10/2012 09:03:39 PM 1563 Views
So what's the point? - 30/10/2012 02:32:43 AM 1524 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 10:04:52 AM 1593 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 05:35:31 PM 1541 Views
No, that's option 3 - I get that - 29/10/2012 07:38:27 PM 1424 Views
Oh, right. Sorry, I misread that. *NM* - 29/10/2012 11:34:37 PM 900 Views
I don't think that does work. - 30/10/2012 02:34:34 AM 1704 Views
The Cairhien Game - 30/10/2012 03:16:53 AM 1479 Views
Yeah, but in the Cairhien game, the Darkfriends were a sideshow . - 30/10/2012 04:05:02 AM 1330 Views
I must say that game crosse my mind - 30/10/2012 09:23:30 AM 1406 Views
Re: Jonathan is precisely who Yunalesca claimed to be. - 29/10/2012 06:27:32 PM 1563 Views
Interesting results - 29/10/2012 02:52:26 AM 1472 Views
maybe a 4th option? - 29/10/2012 01:20:14 PM 1596 Views
No, I don't think so. - 30/10/2012 02:35:49 AM 1988 Views
It is, but not too likely - 30/10/2012 03:15:31 AM 1390 Views
What now? - 31/10/2012 07:39:04 AM 1451 Views
I think we should hear about Night Messages - 31/10/2012 08:50:27 AM 1431 Views
I think Hypocopping would be good idea. *NM* - 31/10/2012 09:36:00 PM 859 Views
You were targeted? - 02/11/2012 12:15:13 AM 1426 Views
Why is that anti-town? - 02/11/2012 04:06:54 PM 1481 Views
Okay then. - 02/11/2012 05:14:18 PM 1375 Views
All kinds of RBIRL - 01/11/2012 04:09:42 AM 1479 Views
We understand - 01/11/2012 08:25:34 AM 1525 Views
Sorry for disappearing, kinda RBIRL - 02/11/2012 12:06:09 AM 1508 Views
Hypocopping [TABLE] [Edit 2] - 02/11/2012 04:12:42 PM 1580 Views
Darth_Katie - not-guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 04:13:07 PM 926 Views
Re: Hypocopping [TABLE] - 02/11/2012 04:46:44 PM 1490 Views
Artsapat - guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:52:59 PM 1421 Views
Yunalesca - Guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:06:43 PM 964 Views
Isaac - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 05:53:54 PM 982 Views
? - not guilty *NM* - 02/11/2012 09:21:10 PM 959 Views
Tagia - Innocent *NM* - 02/11/2012 11:04:51 PM 951 Views
Artsapat - Guilty *NM* - 03/11/2012 05:06:19 AM 916 Views
? - Guilty *NM* - 04/11/2012 03:08:31 AM 917 Views
My understanding of the votes from Yesterday. - 05/11/2012 12:16:56 PM 1690 Views
Well, if even this does not elicit a response in twelve+ hours... - 06/11/2012 07:22:01 AM 1612 Views
I'm not sure if I understand this correctly... - 06/11/2012 07:47:06 AM 1476 Views
Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 06/11/2012 08:14:45 AM 1515 Views
Re: Well, I'll give you that I only voted on Ranagrande because deadline was approaching. - 07/11/2012 07:43:45 AM 1647 Views
I just don't understand how you can consider these not to be strong enough cases. - 07/11/2012 09:22:50 AM 1515 Views
I still haven't heard the case - 08/11/2012 12:54:48 AM 1482 Views
One of them was the only non-human in a monster-hunting theme. - 13/11/2012 06:41:30 PM 1430 Views
Oh, I assumed there was more - 13/11/2012 07:01:54 PM 1379 Views
Yuna's role - 06/11/2012 10:16:36 AM 1495 Views
If that is the case, you just made a major blunder. - 06/11/2012 11:41:03 AM 1409 Views
... - 06/11/2012 06:13:11 PM 1360 Views
*facepalm* - 06/11/2012 04:26:23 PM 1384 Views
... what? *NM* - 06/11/2012 05:33:08 PM 824 Views
What ... ? - 07/11/2012 06:23:33 AM 1815 Views
Re: What ... ? - 07/11/2012 09:11:04 AM 1352 Views
Most important question! - 07/11/2012 01:34:54 PM 1405 Views
Indeed, I noticed that - 07/11/2012 02:41:37 PM 1469 Views
correction: it was a Night Resolution message *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:16:38 PM 830 Views
So you are roled and had a Night Action? *NM* - 08/11/2012 12:34:48 AM 942 Views
No, I was the target of a night action... *NM* - 08/11/2012 07:52:35 AM 1050 Views
Strange. Targets of Night Actions wouldn't normally get a Resolution Message. - 08/11/2012 03:57:57 PM 1621 Views
I did...?? - 10/11/2012 03:00:19 PM 1310 Views
This one? - 13/11/2012 01:48:19 AM 1325 Views
i guess due to Tagia biome's blunder i'd better role claim soon - 07/11/2012 10:53:24 PM 1443 Views
really sorry *NM* - 07/11/2012 11:17:16 PM 886 Views
Well to me... - 08/11/2012 11:03:58 AM 1394 Views
I don't see any reason you would need to roleclaim. - 08/11/2012 05:45:53 PM 1475 Views
ok - 08/11/2012 10:00:35 PM 1497 Views
Power! Internet! Bwaha! - 09/11/2012 09:04:18 PM 1377 Views
No worries man. - 09/11/2012 10:02:50 PM 1459 Views
Nothing too bad... - 09/11/2012 10:22:43 PM 1356 Views
I'm working my way through the game now. Would you like a hyppocop? *NM* - 09/11/2012 10:23:15 PM 907 Views
Sure, why not. *NM* - 09/11/2012 11:18:47 PM 940 Views
I found Artsapat Innocent *NM* - 10/11/2012 05:23:20 PM 931 Views
RBIRL - 11/11/2012 09:06:16 AM 1440 Views
So now what? *NM* - 11/11/2012 10:06:43 PM 788 Views
Can I ask for reasons...? - 11/11/2012 10:08:11 PM 1527 Views
Either they investigated/tracked/whatever them and that's the result they got, - 11/11/2012 10:19:05 PM 1500 Views
I feel like I have been advised in past games.... - 13/11/2012 01:43:10 AM 1354 Views
Not to 50/50 randomize them, but definitely ot randomize them - 13/11/2012 07:14:08 PM 1446 Views
Ahhh very true *NM* - 13/11/2012 08:42:39 PM 857 Views
Re: So now what? - 12/11/2012 06:46:50 PM 1457 Views
I agree - 12/11/2012 11:11:23 PM 1477 Views
Okay I'll respond to it above *NM* - 13/11/2012 01:44:15 AM 791 Views
Re: So now what? - 13/11/2012 05:18:34 PM 1441 Views
RBIRL until next Monday. - 13/11/2012 03:15:46 AM 1798 Views
*cough cough* - 13/11/2012 03:45:45 PM 1331 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:31:26 PM 687 Views
*NM* - 13/11/2012 05:51:11 PM 878 Views
Well... - 13/11/2012 07:16:36 PM 1370 Views
Silly Isaac, of course it does. *NM* - 14/11/2012 07:30:42 PM 973 Views
So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 13/11/2012 07:46:14 PM 1520 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 14/11/2012 11:04:44 AM 1418 Views
Re: So some thoughts... also FOS: Taiga - 16/11/2012 11:57:26 PM 1476 Views
I should point out... - 14/11/2012 05:48:45 PM 1483 Views
Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 05:49:45 PM 1509 Views
Re: Although that doesn't really change anything to your point . - 14/11/2012 09:38:53 PM 1463 Views
RBIRL for a day or so - 15/11/2012 01:47:20 AM 1395 Views
Hey, let's kill someone! *NM* - 18/11/2012 12:52:34 AM 891 Views
Well, you already know my favourite . *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:13:53 AM 869 Views
Someone else *NM* - 18/11/2012 03:37:26 AM 937 Views
Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 08:01:38 AM 1424 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 09:58:29 AM 1374 Views
Re: Yeah, I'll probably do that. - 18/11/2012 02:45:21 PM 1497 Views
sounds like a plan *NM* - 18/11/2012 08:37:24 AM 999 Views
That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 18/11/2012 10:24:16 AM 1406 Views
I think it is pretty safe to say.... - 18/11/2012 02:13:12 PM 1439 Views
Yuna is probably not mafia. - 18/11/2012 07:35:44 PM 1293 Views
Sorry for off-radaring for a few days. - 18/11/2012 10:08:57 PM 1471 Views
for myself - 19/11/2012 09:44:03 AM 1314 Views
Re: for myself - 19/11/2012 11:27:04 AM 1530 Views
Re: That would seem to take us back to ? and Stephen, or some alternate plan - 19/11/2012 06:11:18 PM 1293 Views
time to make a choice - 19/11/2012 08:15:41 PM 1392 Views
Hardly anything to defend myself? - 19/11/2012 08:41:32 PM 1380 Views
I concur. - 20/11/2012 11:11:11 AM 1454 Views
Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 11:16:41 AM 1460 Views
Re: Also, we still haven't got a decent explanation from Taiga. - 20/11/2012 01:44:15 PM 1379 Views
again - 20/11/2012 06:23:22 PM 1381 Views
It's not entirely unusual to get messages when targeted by actions... - 20/11/2012 06:57:14 PM 1353 Views
Vote: Yunalesca *NM* - 20/11/2012 08:42:05 PM 1029 Views
what? why? *NM* - 21/11/2012 12:47:18 AM 831 Views
You sound like a cult leader to me *NM* - 21/11/2012 02:25:52 AM 875 Views
Re: again - 21/11/2012 12:49:49 AM 1492 Views
clarification - 21/11/2012 05:10:41 PM 1418 Views
Well, yeah... - 21/11/2012 06:21:23 PM 1325 Views
Umm...Idea. - 22/11/2012 02:05:14 AM 1406 Views
I've considered that... - 22/11/2012 05:27:24 AM 1346 Views
Yes I realized that as well... *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:03:15 PM 872 Views
I think I;m happy to vote for yuna right now. - 22/11/2012 02:35:09 AM 1468 Views
That's not what it sounded like. *NM* - 22/11/2012 01:12:46 AM 920 Views
what part of 'i have no powers of recruitment' don't you get? - 22/11/2012 10:24:27 AM 1424 Views
The... - 22/11/2012 01:04:05 PM 1481 Views
Re: The... - 22/11/2012 01:36:44 PM 1426 Views
I'm just throwing this out there. - 18/11/2012 10:13:22 PM 1513 Views
True *NM* - 19/11/2012 12:10:04 AM 927 Views
Ooh... what an interesting idea. - 19/11/2012 07:46:22 PM 1304 Views
Unless Rana was a SK, itr doens't change the dynamics of the NK, or lack thereof *NM* - 20/11/2012 05:49:40 AM 865 Views
Yes, well that's what I was starting to wonder. Was Rana acting alone? - 20/11/2012 07:18:37 AM 1388 Views
Serial killer and cult leader? - 20/11/2012 08:44:21 PM 1447 Views
RBIRL - 22/11/2012 10:40:44 PM 1436 Views
Find out who's doing the airship mod and tell him to hurry up *NM* - 22/11/2012 11:03:48 PM 805 Views
Right... *NM* - 25/11/2012 05:23:59 PM 851 Views
Left... *NM* - 25/11/2012 09:37:20 PM 925 Views
Ah someone lives! - 25/11/2012 09:58:03 PM 1390 Views
Well, so do I? - 26/11/2012 08:26:55 AM 1437 Views
I do live too.. - 26/11/2012 09:14:02 AM 1401 Views
Where did you vote? - 26/11/2012 07:04:22 PM 1394 Views
*cough* Sorry about that. It's there now. *NM* - 26/11/2012 08:01:29 PM 869 Views
Unvote - 26/11/2012 06:34:47 PM 1446 Views
But that'd make three scum... - 26/11/2012 08:40:36 PM 1416 Views
Before we hammer here... can we get a RC from Stephen? - 26/11/2012 11:10:57 PM 1669 Views
Sure, why not. - 26/11/2012 11:39:02 PM 1390 Views
Sure me too *NM* - 27/11/2012 03:23:42 AM 877 Views
Sounds like a plan. *NM* - 27/11/2012 05:39:17 AM 883 Views
I concur.. *NM* - 28/11/2012 09:24:35 AM 869 Views
Sorry, I've been ill. - 28/11/2012 02:46:20 PM 1439 Views
Feeling better? *NM* - 29/11/2012 01:00:52 AM 869 Views
I'm mostly recovered. - 29/11/2012 01:37:50 AM 1582 Views
That's a bold claim. - 29/11/2012 03:28:43 AM 1343 Views
Well, I have suspected Taiga from pretty much the first minute as I have previously documented. - 29/11/2012 02:01:37 PM 1558 Views
Why would you Watch someone you suspected? You track them - Vote: Stephen - 29/11/2012 06:13:20 PM 1553 Views
Vote: Stephen - 30/11/2012 06:38:59 AM 1415 Views
Well, I guess I'm technically lynched. - 30/11/2012 01:53:13 PM 1597 Views
Ouch. - 30/11/2012 04:38:45 PM 1404 Views
That makes quite alot sense actually. Vote:Stephen *NM* - 30/11/2012 09:01:01 AM 861 Views
back from Minecon...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz *NM* - 26/11/2012 07:16:28 PM 851 Views
Twilight - 30/11/2012 03:58:02 PM 1525 Views
Day 3 should be starting within a day or two *NM* - 05/12/2012 03:36:38 PM 863 Views
...and you expect still to end it before X-mas ^^ *NM* - 05/12/2012 06:47:57 PM 912 Views

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