My only main objection is your point saying that a non-random lynch is better than a random lynch. This CAN be true, but isn't always the case. A lynch isn't better simply because it's non-random; a lynch is better because it's non-random and built upon solid logic (or at least solid guesses).



Above, I made a post thinking about F-T's logic. It boiled down to two scenarios:

1) He is a DF, and decided to go from having zero suspicion on him to having major suspicion on him, on Day One. Likely part of an elaborate scheme to preemptively allay suspicion if the cop investigates him.

2) He is a Miller, knew something like this would come up eventually, and decided to do it now, rather than after he'd been investigated.



2 seems much, much more likely to me. It's obviously not working out as well as F-T had hoped, but a similar thing happened to Hopper last game: both had plans they thought would help the town, but instead drew the town's suspicion upon themselves.

Plan 1 requires a long term gambit, flying in the face of accepted DF wisdom, and ignoring the fact that on Day 1, everyone is pretty much equally suspicious- painting a bullseye on your face and telling people its fake doesn't make you less suspicious.