My only main objection is your point saying that a non-random lynch is better than a random lynch. This CAN be true, but isn't always the case. A lynch isn't better simply because it's non-random; a lynch is better because it's non-random and built upon solid logic (or at least solid guesses).
Above, I made a post thinking about F-T's logic. It boiled down to two scenarios:
1) He is a DF, and decided to go from having zero suspicion on him to having major suspicion on him, on Day One. Likely part of an elaborate scheme to preemptively allay suspicion if the cop investigates him.
2) He is a Miller, knew something like this would come up eventually, and decided to do it now, rather than after he'd been investigated.
2 seems much, much more likely to me. It's obviously not working out as well as F-T had hoped, but a similar thing happened to Hopper last game: both had plans they thought would help the town, but instead drew the town's suspicion upon themselves.
Plan 1 requires a long term gambit, flying in the face of accepted DF wisdom, and ignoring the fact that on Day 1, everyone is pretty much equally suspicious- painting a bullseye on your face and telling people its fake doesn't make you less suspicious.
Above, I made a post thinking about F-T's logic. It boiled down to two scenarios:
1) He is a DF, and decided to go from having zero suspicion on him to having major suspicion on him, on Day One. Likely part of an elaborate scheme to preemptively allay suspicion if the cop investigates him.
2) He is a Miller, knew something like this would come up eventually, and decided to do it now, rather than after he'd been investigated.
2 seems much, much more likely to me. It's obviously not working out as well as F-T had hoped, but a similar thing happened to Hopper last game: both had plans they thought would help the town, but instead drew the town's suspicion upon themselves.
Plan 1 requires a long term gambit, flying in the face of accepted DF wisdom, and ignoring the fact that on Day 1, everyone is pretty much equally suspicious- painting a bullseye on your face and telling people its fake doesn't make you less suspicious.
I amuse myself.
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended.
27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM
- 3050 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message.
27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM
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You made it up
27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM
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Hmm ...
27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM
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Ha.
28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM
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It sounds like a real word.
28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM
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You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system
28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM
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Well, lacking anything else...
28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM
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I haven't the faintest idea what they mean.
29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM
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Not really
29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM
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Let's try something
29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM
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alrighty then
29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM
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That's sufficient, thanks
29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM
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Yea, my message has all that.
29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM
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Probably
29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM
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Re: Probably
29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM
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True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in
29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM
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I've got MPD
29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM
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Surprise, surprise: I do too.
29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM
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Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM*
29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM
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I have MPD and number under 14. *NM*
29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM
- 802 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM
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Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM
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High priests cannot be sacrificed!
30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM
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Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices
30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM
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I want to roleclaim.
30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM
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That is, well, surprising
30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM
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Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now.
30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM
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Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM*
30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM
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Well, I'm back...
31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM
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Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!?
31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM
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Oh, and I had my first real tournament today...
31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM
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Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much.
31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM
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I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers.
31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM
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But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played?
31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM
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And on a third hand...
31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM
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So... back to neutral. *NM*
31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM
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You don't find that statement dubious?
31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM
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I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend...
31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM
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Everyone! Deep breaths...
31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM
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That's a pretty big thing to forget though.
01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM
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Who said anything about forgetting?
01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM
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It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM*
01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM
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No...
01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM
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Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about
01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM
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I agree with beet here.
01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM
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Offer alternatives then
01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM
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I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games
01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM
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I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM
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Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM
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Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on...
31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM
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Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM
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Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper.
31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM
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What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers.
01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM
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Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor.
01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM
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We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF.
31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM
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Alright, from my reading,
31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM
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RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance)
01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM
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I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is
01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM
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You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be.
01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM
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I think the rationale was this:
01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM
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Beg Pardon?
01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM
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It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM
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Coward. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM
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Er... what just happened, here? *NM*
02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM
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I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult.
02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM
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There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM
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Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM
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Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM
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Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM
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Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM
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Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM
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Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM
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Re: Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM
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Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM*
01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM
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Message get eaten? *NM*
01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM
- 677 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember...
02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM
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Right, so: Defending Myself
01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM
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Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's
02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM
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Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
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Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM
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Re: Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM
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Re: The random thing
02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM
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Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM
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Re: Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 09:23:43 PM
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Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry.
02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM
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I never tried to stop any discussion
02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM
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Like I said, I don't find it very suspicious, but it was just something I had seen.
02/02/2010 11:14:53 PM
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Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T
02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM
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That's pretty bold claim of intention.
02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM
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Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM
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Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM
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Speaking of time...
03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM
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Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM*
03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM
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Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt.
03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM
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Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything
03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM
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Hahaha. well, it was!
04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM
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"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM*
04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM
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Everybody knows my perspective on no lynches...or at least I suspect they do. *NM*
04/02/2010 04:09:17 AM
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So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why?
04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM
- 1193 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM
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Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM
- 1045 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all
04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM
- 1135 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF.
04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM
- 1093 Views
Fair enough...
04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM
- 1099 Views
I agree with D_K actually
04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM
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You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF?
04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM
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If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less
04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM
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I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light...
04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM
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You know, you're still at L-3.
04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM
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L-2, as it were.
04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM
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Just had to make me incorrect?
04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM
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I couldn't resist. *NM*
05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM
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05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM
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Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around .
05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM
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05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM
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I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly.
05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM
- 1150 Views