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I think the difference is more than semantic in this case Isaac Send a noteboard - 19/04/2013 12:11:04 AM

I could and will comment that a poll is not a sentient creature capable of lying, I know you know that and it isn't your point but the difference here isn't semantic in my eyes and I want to underscore that what stats tell people versus what they choose to hear are really very different things.


View original postIn the (admittedly unlikely) case that a poll is off by so much that even the margin of error is insufficient to make it correct, while still having been correctly executed, the statistic does for all intents and purposes lie.

That's not really all that unlikely, these are usually 95% confidence, I play D&D way too much to consider a natural 20 unlikely Also I don't think it is really a semantic difference here, intentional falsehood vs misinterpretation vs method error in data acquisition vs intentional push polling etc are all very different things.


View original postMore often, statistics "lie" due to not having been executed correctly, most often I suppose by failing to have truly independent data points, or perhaps for other reasons.

Well, I'd have to debate that, I've done a lot of local automated polling, it gave us a huge advantage being able to run 1000 person samples for under $100 a piece rather than around $10,000 but doing that required a lot of effort to determine what could skew the sample and what we could do to adjust the data rather than eliminate that skew. 'Executed correctly' is a very flexible term and not just in polling but in almost all science. As an example, if I give people:

Q1: Barrack Obama the democrat, press 1, Mitt Romney the Republican, press 2, Not sure, 3
Q2: Jane Doe D, 1, John Smith R, 2, not sure 3
Q3: Bob Jackson D, 1, Eric Carlson R, 2, not sure 3
Q4: Alex Park R, 1, Donald Hill D, 2, not sure 3

A lot of people who are hardcore Dem or GOP are going to seem to break party on Q4 because they though 1 meant Dem and 2 GOP rather than the order being alphabetical. Now I can toss that data entirely or I can salvage it and note the problem. People who pressed 1 across the board, or 2 across the board, can probably be assumed to have switched on Q4, and you can just reverse their data points. It adds an extra layer of iffy, but it isn't useless data. Same, if I get Obama over Romney by 20 points, the national poll has him by 5 points and historically we vote 3 points left of center in that area, I know I should be assuming the other R's got 12 points higher than they really got. It's touch and go and often more art then science but that it was still 'executed correctly' and truth be told that is perfectly common in a lot of science by necessity, ye olde fudge factor is normal enough.


View original postBut it's true that statistics being misreported or misrepresented are still more frequent than either of the above.

True enough

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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I think the difference is more than semantic in this case - 19/04/2013 12:11:04 AM 456 Views
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