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I thought you would think this way. The Shrike Send a noteboard - 15/03/2017 12:04:57 PM

And I can't disagree with anything you wrote. I still thought the merits of the article and the discussion around it would be worthwhile.



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I think perhaps the goal was a noble one - reminding people of the Russian Revolution and helping to educate those who don't know much about it - but the article was just a mess of misstatements, oversimplifications and ultimately, a waste of space with respect to its overall premise: "what if?".

The "what if?" premise seemed just to have been inartfully nailed to a recitation of facts. What if Kerensky took up the Reichstag on its offer? Well, the author already mentioned that Germany was a military dictatorship at the time.

The author also further conceded that his entire farce of shoving history into the subjunctive mood was largely a useless endeavor: "Perhaps the German High Command would have ignored the offer and continued fighting (as it did when the Bolsheviks offered the same terms after the October Revolution at the end of 1917)." Hmm. Yes, oh there was that. But maybe, just maybe, the Germans would have conceded more earlier on, when they thought their chances of winning outright were greater...oh, wait, that's not very logical now, is it?

If someone wants to write an interesting "what if?", I have one: what if Wilson had his massive stroke in 1917? Perhaps the world would never have had to fight a second world war. Germany might have negotiated a peace with war-weary European powers who saw no end in sight on terms that would not have seen the dismemberment of Germany or Austria. Italy's irredentist movement might have arisen anyway, but if the war were a draw the indignity of the failure to win the Alto Adige or Fiume for the Kingdom of Italy would not have cut quite so deeply. Lots of things might conceivably have changed. The world might be radically different today.

Sadly, this what if article is useless. But is that a surprise? The Times went out of its way to get an economics professor from Australia. How about a Russian history professor? How about a professor of something remotely related to Russia or, you know, an actual Russian?

I'm looking forward to their retrospective "what if" on apartheid in South Africa, written by the senior professor of theoretical mathematics from Tsinghua University in Beijing.


I did wonder why thy the NYT chose this particular author. It seemed extremely odd that it wasn't someone whose expertise is Russian or German or even European history. But then I thought about it some more and wondered if an outsider's view was something good on this subject. I am still mulling it over but generally think this was a mistake to have him write this piece.

Speaking of your thoughts of What Ifs, there's a certain article you may or may not have seen by Richard J Evans. It's from a few years ago but I follow his reviews of books in The Guardian (yes I know). RJE is quite cantankerous in this review. But it seems to be an appropriate tangent to the main discussion.

'What if' is a waste of time
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The February Revolution and Kerensky’s Missed Opportunity - 13/03/2017 09:37:00 PM 785 Views
Fascinating stuff - 13/03/2017 10:52:58 PM 407 Views
Who knows? It could have been worse off. - 13/03/2017 11:37:54 PM 498 Views
What's your opinion on Lenin? - 14/03/2017 02:06:59 AM 444 Views
Lenin. A monster. - 14/03/2017 12:55:18 PM 475 Views
Thanks. I'll ask him too. *NM* - 14/03/2017 03:01:36 PM 228 Views
Lenin, Stalin and Trotsky were all bloodthirsty mass murderers. - 14/03/2017 08:59:06 PM 498 Views
That's fascinating. But give me a book recommendation! - 14/03/2017 09:15:57 PM 411 Views
Start with a general history of Russia - 14/03/2017 10:17:22 PM 523 Views
Excellent. Thank you. It's next on the list. - 15/03/2017 02:11:14 AM 477 Views
Russian history is as depressing as they come. - 15/03/2017 12:08:15 PM 468 Views
Read Figes first, I suppose. - 14/03/2017 10:55:23 PM 431 Views
Thanks, Tom. I've been putting off reading good literature because of my unfamiliarity with Russia. *NM* - 15/03/2017 02:12:10 AM 213 Views
Which books have you put off reading? *NM* - 15/03/2017 12:05:32 PM 199 Views
DEMONS and THE BROTHERS KARAMAZOV are the big two. - 15/03/2017 02:58:13 PM 420 Views
You don't necessarily need to know the history. - 15/03/2017 03:15:38 PM 455 Views
I'm always afraid I'm missing something critical, though! - 15/03/2017 03:50:59 PM 408 Views
Annotations are amazing. My eBook version of War and Peace was the same. - 15/03/2017 04:03:59 PM 428 Views
My High School English teacher neglected Russian literature. - 16/03/2017 01:46:29 AM 387 Views
Hmmmm. - 16/03/2017 01:18:14 PM 427 Views
Tolstoy was a reprehensible human being - 15/03/2017 04:02:52 PM 410 Views
I had no idea. I was under the impression he was deeply devout. - 16/03/2017 01:47:43 AM 422 Views
Here's one example: - 16/03/2017 02:06:45 AM 429 Views
Good lord. The man sounds deranged. But that's fascinating! Is there a good biography on him? *NM* - 16/03/2017 07:50:10 AM 210 Views
Pavel Basinsky's bio is best - 16/03/2017 02:46:47 PM 592 Views
Getting it now. Thanks. *NM* - 16/03/2017 11:06:25 PM 203 Views
For what it's worth, I read Lenin & Trotsky as genuine idealists, while Stalin as just a thug - 15/03/2017 11:16:36 AM 480 Views
I think that's entirely incorrect. - 15/03/2017 04:00:54 PM 492 Views
I didn't mean stupid or brutish, I meant more like a mafia don than a statesman - 16/03/2017 12:18:34 PM 379 Views
Well if you want to completely redefine the phrase "just a thug", perhaps you're right - 16/03/2017 02:43:38 PM 408 Views
Good point - 16/03/2017 09:52:29 PM 538 Views
I hear what you're saying, but... - 16/03/2017 11:53:19 PM 433 Views
Attempt at clarification - 17/03/2017 12:55:03 AM 510 Views
Hehehe..."Fuck off" - 19/03/2017 05:23:49 PM 443 Views
Seems kind of nonsensical - 14/03/2017 01:33:49 AM 508 Views
Good reply. - 14/03/2017 12:57:47 PM 489 Views
They weren't really wrong - 14/03/2017 01:30:07 PM 523 Views
I do enjoy historical "what if" situations. - 14/03/2017 01:47:27 AM 421 Views
Hi there. - 14/03/2017 01:02:44 PM 391 Views
I still think democracy among those insidiously intrusive Western values Russia resists so fiercely - 14/03/2017 02:37:39 PM 498 Views
Is it your persistant anti-Russia bias that makes you so dogmatic? - 14/03/2017 02:51:23 PM 427 Views
I have no problem with Russia, only its government - 14/03/2017 03:07:14 PM 525 Views
Really? - 14/03/2017 03:15:10 PM 449 Views
What a terrible article - 14/03/2017 08:04:50 PM 400 Views
I thought you would think this way. - 15/03/2017 12:04:57 PM 480 Views
I can't decide what I think about Evans - 15/03/2017 04:10:05 PM 391 Views

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