I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
2102 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
- 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
767 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
- 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
1242 Views
Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1208 Views
- 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
1208 Views
Re: Arrrgggh
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1280 Views
- 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
1280 Views
plus...
- 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
1201 Views
Voting Record
- 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
1169 Views
Moving along
- 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
1445 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
665 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
1230 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
- 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
1359 Views
my current suspects
- 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
1404 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
- 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
697 Views
Expanding the list
- 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM
1240 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
- 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
1310 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
- 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
1077 Views
I can
- 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
1233 Views
Nay
- 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
1264 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
- 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
1248 Views
We need to come up with a plan
- 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
1217 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
- 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
1187 Views
? is the logical target
- 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
1150 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
1218 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
- 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
1168 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
- 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
1192 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
- 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
1167 Views
I think I have a plan
- 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
1334 Views
...erm...
- 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
1311 Views
Crypto tricks
- 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
1274 Views
Some thoughts...
- 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
1082 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
- 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
1163 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
- 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
1298 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
1202 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
1228 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
- 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
1131 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
- 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
1129 Views
That is correct. *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
706 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
- 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
1179 Views
Okay
- 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
1201 Views
Re: Okay
- 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
1150 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
- 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
675 Views
horsefeathers
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1131 Views
- 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
1131 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
- 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
714 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this.
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
635 Views
*NM*
- 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
635 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
- 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
1349 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
- 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
627 Views
A couple Questions
- 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
1138 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
- 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
1276 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
- 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
1148 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
- 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
1201 Views
what now?
- 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
1109 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
- 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
1236 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
- 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
1206 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
1249 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
- 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
1196 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
- 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
1252 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
739 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
- 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
1249 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
- 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
1181 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
- 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
1303 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
1267 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
- 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
1198 Views
eh, what the heck
- 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
1115 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
685 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
- 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
564 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
- 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
1069 Views
right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
1236 Views
Re: right, mine
- 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
1168 Views
EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
1193 Views
Re: EPWOP
- 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
1218 Views
Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
1204 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
- 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
1231 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
1076 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
- 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
1137 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
1279 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
1141 Views
EBWOP
- 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
1140 Views
It's probably also worth noting
- 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
1214 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
- 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
1223 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
- 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
1254 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
- 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
1093 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
1148 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
- 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
1217 Views
not to mention...
- 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
1209 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
- 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
706 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1364 Views
- 26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
1364 Views
Somebody want to hammer?
- 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
1205 Views

*NM*