Active Users:403 Time:01/05/2025 07:09:07 PM
Moving along Isaac Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1786 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 579 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 955 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 920 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 997 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 888 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 916 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 549 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 895 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 553 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 602 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 863 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1141 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 508 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 590 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 558 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 881 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 971 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1012 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 941 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1035 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 829 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 585 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 586 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 900 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1042 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 529 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 916 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 549 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 939 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 890 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1015 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 966 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 888 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1074 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 925 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 978 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 951 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 986 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 809 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 908 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 948 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 864 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 949 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 572 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 524 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 533 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 535 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 908 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 934 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 938 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 951 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 869 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 877 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 867 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 515 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 930 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 906 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 898 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 948 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 928 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 929 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 927 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 879 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 914 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 865 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1046 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1019 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 958 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 834 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 829 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 891 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 837 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 890 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 929 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 803 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 507 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 866 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 921 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 769 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 897 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 984 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 778 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 920 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 829 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 857 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 559 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 904 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 912 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 989 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 925 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 898 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 896 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 546 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 868 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 874 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 533 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 948 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 531 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 890 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 914 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 888 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 864 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 538 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 847 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 546 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 525 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 540 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 494 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 872 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 797 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 541 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 603 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 959 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1031 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 485 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 587 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 835 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 892 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 882 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 887 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 905 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 858 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 965 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 901 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1066 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 918 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 868 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 927 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 882 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 879 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 853 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 879 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 869 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 920 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 924 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 905 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 816 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 944 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 893 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 913 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 953 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 895 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 958 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 522 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 958 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 921 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 894 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 936 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 908 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 506 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1144 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 921 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 914 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 896 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 954 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 839 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 961 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 899 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 796 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 726 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 415 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 789 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1447 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 870 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 951 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 897 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 909 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 941 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 872 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 956 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 879 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 892 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1081 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 820 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1010 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 794 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 790 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 867 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 956 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 903 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 920 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 1007 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 861 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 856 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 904 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 932 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 876 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 930 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 971 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 832 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 860 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 921 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 894 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 854 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 895 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 907 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1121 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 561 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 909 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 850 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 567 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 922 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 999 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 924 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 539 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 866 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 524 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 539 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 928 Views

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