Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
Isaac Send a noteboard - 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
I've been engrossed in ToM and Fallout New Vegas and work. Those three make up my days. And all three are awesome. 

So, I believe ? about fist. And yay about knowing I'm not the killer. You don't need to confirm it, you can just take my word for it right? 

A problem here is that ? has given us a perfect motive for a kill. Apparently fist did tell him of his abilities, which surprises the heck out of me since short of a Note from Mod saying he was clean I would sure as hell never tell my mason ally on night 1 that I had a role worth snuffing, unless I was BP, in which case telling someone your a doc or hinting at some secret info worth keeping that way is a solid tactic. This however, is a conundrum, I've got conflicting scenarios that make ? the killer and which make it absurd as well, but they only work if he and/or his nominal dark allies followed the logic like I would, and scummers often don't act logically, even in 20/20 hindsight.
Here's what we actually know
Logically ? or allies killed him when they heard his role and realized what a threat he was, had I been involved the only thing which might have kept me from killing fist was fear it was a trap, because if I were fist, that's what I would have done if faced by a mason ally, again a conundrum, because it relies around trying to gauge how scheming everyone involved would have been and its not a WIFOM situation, the alternative scenario isn't just as useful, revealing your role to someone you don't really trust truthfully because you figure he'll think your lying isn't really a legit WIFOM, nor does fist have my own issue of having to worry about everyone viewing your every action as not just a possible manipulation but guaranteed even if truthful to have an ulterior motive

The whole situation stinks of not just missing data but an outright screw up on interpretation by the bad guys, its just where did it take place at? If ? is a townie, then we have zero reason to think the scummers knew his role and my well-practiced assassin's eye sees nothing fist did yesterday as reasonable grounds for a NK. Now, they may have misinterpreted one of his character claims as a probable doc or SPLOG-wielder for instance, but nothing he said yesterday sets off my buzzers.
Of course, they could have killed him to throw suspicion onto ?, but that only works if they knew fist and ? were masons, which would be hard to find out without knowing who they were and it appears I'm one of a small minority familiar with Marvel and ? as quicksilver and mason only stuck out to me as an option because ? leads the list and I compiled the claim table, meaning I basically memorized his options by seeing it a dozen times, even then it was only a background thin option since I was looking for possible mason groups, it was still just a wisp until I saw fist dead as Scarlet Witch... that's an incredibly thin basis to assume the dark siders were able to make all those jumps of logic considering one of them is basically unique to me, as table compiler, and the other, Marvel Expertise, is apparently also very rare. Thus if ? is town and the scummers were trying to off fist because they suspected he was a mason and they wanted to cast suspicion on his ally about the only reasonable way they could have done that is if 'they' is 'me' and I wouldn't whack someone with that intent on such thin basis, not profitable enough and the logics too wispy. So we can remove 'blame the kill on the surviving mason' as a motive, its just too flawed. Basically the scummers had no logical motive to kill fist if ? was a townie.
However, as mentioned, ? as traitor mason has some serious flaws too. Starting with Fist having no logical reason to tell ? his role and a evil ? having less reason to tell us he had, since that gives him ironclad motive and he obviously had opportunity if scum. Makes damn little sense, "Yes, I'm the number 1 suspect... oh and by the way, fist in a moment of improbable trust told me his powers, which are obviously murder-worthy" is as defenses go roughly the same as jumping out of a burning plane with your parachute securely tied around your neck, since lying and saying, when it can't be disproved and is far more logical "Fair enough if I knew his role and was evil I'd want him dead, but you know how masons are, zero trust, why would he tell me that? and if I didn't know, why would I have him killed since he's otherwise just a mason and I'd be the obvious suspect for his death?"... unfortunately ? is a new player and might not know we all regard mason groups as scummer central, even if he is scum, and might well say that, and also, by not saying that he's indicating he's not fully immersed in our group paranoia yet and thus doesn't have motive to lie about it... but that would still be applicable whether he was town or scum.
Makes my head hurt
There remain plenty of oddball options, the scummers knew something, the scummers thought they knew something and got it right for all the wrong reasons - that happens a lot - the scummers took a random attack. We can probably rule out fist using his action sponge, even if we ignore the doc option someone would have indicated by now if they'd been diverted and with as many roles as we have silence on this indicates none of us want to RC to confirm he didn't use it. Removing all these less options we have two core ones:
Both those scenarios seem plausible under the specific circumstances that we know, all the others just seem to require either too many coincidences or too many stunning leaps of faith or ignoring logic, both of the above have some of that too. I don't really have a vibe on this either way and this isn't day 1, hopefully we'll get some more info as people trickle back in from reading ToM.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
- 03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
2867 Views
I see two avenues to discuss here
- 03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
1095 Views
I was thinking about number 1.
- 03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
1101 Views
Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
- 04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
1161 Views
I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
- 04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
1074 Views
O.......K..........
- 05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
1033 Views
Did Fist use his power last Night?
- 06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
1086 Views
It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
1090 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
1076 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
1113 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
1163 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
1182 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
1156 Views
Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
- 11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
1103 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
1182 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
1106 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
1223 Views
I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
- 11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
1178 Views
Interesting.
- 11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
1106 Views
It's certainly possible.
- 11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
1128 Views
Now I'm curious
- 11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
1181 Views
Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
- 11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
1162 Views
Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
1179 Views
Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
1234 Views
a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
- 04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
1160 Views
also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
- 04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
1089 Views
That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
- 04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
603 Views
You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain.
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
656 Views
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
656 Views
Hypocop? *NM*
- 03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
661 Views
Hobo - Innocent + read this before you HC if you haven't already
- 04/11/2010 08:25:26 PM
1077 Views
So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
- 10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
1048 Views
I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
- 10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
618 Views
Vote: No Lynch
- 13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
1113 Views
I am very much opposed to this idea
- 13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
1065 Views
Then offer an alternative
- 13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
1109 Views
Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
1027 Views
Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
1097 Views
I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
- 14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
1019 Views
Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
- 14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
562 Views
LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
- 14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
1083 Views
Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
- 14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
1092 Views
Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
- 14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
1027 Views
After this whole argument I've had with FT...
- 13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
1057 Views
People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
1060 Views
Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
1214 Views
Vote: Isaac
- 13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
1150 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
1064 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
1129 Views
What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
1155 Views
Re: What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
1080 Views
Extrmely thin
- 14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
1240 Views
Actually...
- 14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
1163 Views
Re: Actually...
- 14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
1097 Views
Did you guys just blitz me?
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1153 Views
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1153 Views
Your not hammered yet are you?
- 14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
1060 Views
I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
- 14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
1094 Views
I'm potentially alive on a technicality
- 15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
969 Views
Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
- 15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
1102 Views
Sure
- 15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
1057 Views
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
- 15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
1151 Views
I think so.
- 15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
1028 Views
Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
1056 Views
Re: Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
1165 Views
Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
1000 Views
Re: Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
1122 Views
I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
- 15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
1093 Views
EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
659 Views
I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
- 15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
976 Views
I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
- 15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
941 Views
Thanks, and a question too
- 15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
1011 Views
Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
632 Views
Jeez, when it rains, it pours
- 15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
965 Views
OK Isaac
- 15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
1024 Views
My Defense Posts
- 16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
1008 Views
Defense A: The Fantastic Four
- 16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
1076 Views
Defense B: The Numbers Game
- 16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
1076 Views
"What motive would a scummer have"?
- 16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
1055 Views
Without any further questions though?
- 16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
1140 Views
If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
- 17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
1035 Views
Defense C: The Intro Flavor
- 16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
1174 Views
Eh ...
- 16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
1020 Views
Re: Eh ...
- 17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
1061 Views
We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
1110 Views
Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
1042 Views
Yes, that was it.
- 16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
1033 Views
Re: Yes, that was it.
- 17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
1054 Views
Not at all.
- 17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
1062 Views
Well, that's a borderline lie
- 17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
1127 Views
How do you figure?
- 17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
1024 Views
I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
- 17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
1015 Views
All right, fair enough.
- 17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
1137 Views
Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
1069 Views
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
1069 Views
By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
- 17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
1035 Views
I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
- 17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
1114 Views
Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
1111 Views
Re: Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
1025 Views
Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
- 17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
1094 Views
That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
1039 Views
Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
1092 Views
Actually that sounds a good plan
- 17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
1028 Views
Glad to hear you agree with yourself
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1112 Views
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1112 Views
:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
- 17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
1048 Views
Ah yes, I noticed that as well
- 17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
1038 Views
I just caught that
- 17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
1161 Views
No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
1045 Views
Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
1079 Views
I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
- 17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
1131 Views
Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
1129 Views
Re: Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
1007 Views
I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
971 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
989 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
1075 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
1026 Views
In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
- 17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
1055 Views
What the balls?
- 17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
1077 Views
I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
1019 Views
Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
1000 Views
Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
1210 Views
Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
1004 Views
I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
- 18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
1005 Views
i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
1062 Views
Re: i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
948 Views
They're also Marvel characters
- 18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
1101 Views
LOL, duly noted
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
1101 Views
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
1101 Views
Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
- 18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
1090 Views
Sure
- 18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
1065 Views
Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
- 21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
624 Views
Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
1034 Views
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
1034 Views
OK, here's a question for beet:
- 21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
1048 Views
You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
- 21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
1030 Views
But we do get information
- 22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
1049 Views
<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
619 Views
Well, congrats
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
667 Views
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
667 Views
Since this is a first for both of us...
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
1023 Views
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
1023 Views
When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
- 21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
1042 Views
Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
992 Views
Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
1104 Views
Isaac has been lynched!
- 22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
946 Views
I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
955 Views
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
955 Views
I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
- 22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
667 Views
I might just mount your head on my wall
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1145 Views
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1145 Views
I consider myself an integral part in this group.
- 22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
1136 Views



