Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
Isaac Send a noteboard - 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
I've been engrossed in ToM and Fallout New Vegas and work. Those three make up my days. And all three are awesome. 

So, I believe ? about fist. And yay about knowing I'm not the killer. You don't need to confirm it, you can just take my word for it right? 

A problem here is that ? has given us a perfect motive for a kill. Apparently fist did tell him of his abilities, which surprises the heck out of me since short of a Note from Mod saying he was clean I would sure as hell never tell my mason ally on night 1 that I had a role worth snuffing, unless I was BP, in which case telling someone your a doc or hinting at some secret info worth keeping that way is a solid tactic. This however, is a conundrum, I've got conflicting scenarios that make ? the killer and which make it absurd as well, but they only work if he and/or his nominal dark allies followed the logic like I would, and scummers often don't act logically, even in 20/20 hindsight.
Here's what we actually know
Logically ? or allies killed him when they heard his role and realized what a threat he was, had I been involved the only thing which might have kept me from killing fist was fear it was a trap, because if I were fist, that's what I would have done if faced by a mason ally, again a conundrum, because it relies around trying to gauge how scheming everyone involved would have been and its not a WIFOM situation, the alternative scenario isn't just as useful, revealing your role to someone you don't really trust truthfully because you figure he'll think your lying isn't really a legit WIFOM, nor does fist have my own issue of having to worry about everyone viewing your every action as not just a possible manipulation but guaranteed even if truthful to have an ulterior motive

The whole situation stinks of not just missing data but an outright screw up on interpretation by the bad guys, its just where did it take place at? If ? is a townie, then we have zero reason to think the scummers knew his role and my well-practiced assassin's eye sees nothing fist did yesterday as reasonable grounds for a NK. Now, they may have misinterpreted one of his character claims as a probable doc or SPLOG-wielder for instance, but nothing he said yesterday sets off my buzzers.
Of course, they could have killed him to throw suspicion onto ?, but that only works if they knew fist and ? were masons, which would be hard to find out without knowing who they were and it appears I'm one of a small minority familiar with Marvel and ? as quicksilver and mason only stuck out to me as an option because ? leads the list and I compiled the claim table, meaning I basically memorized his options by seeing it a dozen times, even then it was only a background thin option since I was looking for possible mason groups, it was still just a wisp until I saw fist dead as Scarlet Witch... that's an incredibly thin basis to assume the dark siders were able to make all those jumps of logic considering one of them is basically unique to me, as table compiler, and the other, Marvel Expertise, is apparently also very rare. Thus if ? is town and the scummers were trying to off fist because they suspected he was a mason and they wanted to cast suspicion on his ally about the only reasonable way they could have done that is if 'they' is 'me' and I wouldn't whack someone with that intent on such thin basis, not profitable enough and the logics too wispy. So we can remove 'blame the kill on the surviving mason' as a motive, its just too flawed. Basically the scummers had no logical motive to kill fist if ? was a townie.
However, as mentioned, ? as traitor mason has some serious flaws too. Starting with Fist having no logical reason to tell ? his role and a evil ? having less reason to tell us he had, since that gives him ironclad motive and he obviously had opportunity if scum. Makes damn little sense, "Yes, I'm the number 1 suspect... oh and by the way, fist in a moment of improbable trust told me his powers, which are obviously murder-worthy" is as defenses go roughly the same as jumping out of a burning plane with your parachute securely tied around your neck, since lying and saying, when it can't be disproved and is far more logical "Fair enough if I knew his role and was evil I'd want him dead, but you know how masons are, zero trust, why would he tell me that? and if I didn't know, why would I have him killed since he's otherwise just a mason and I'd be the obvious suspect for his death?"... unfortunately ? is a new player and might not know we all regard mason groups as scummer central, even if he is scum, and might well say that, and also, by not saying that he's indicating he's not fully immersed in our group paranoia yet and thus doesn't have motive to lie about it... but that would still be applicable whether he was town or scum.
Makes my head hurt
There remain plenty of oddball options, the scummers knew something, the scummers thought they knew something and got it right for all the wrong reasons - that happens a lot - the scummers took a random attack. We can probably rule out fist using his action sponge, even if we ignore the doc option someone would have indicated by now if they'd been diverted and with as many roles as we have silence on this indicates none of us want to RC to confirm he didn't use it. Removing all these less options we have two core ones:
Both those scenarios seem plausible under the specific circumstances that we know, all the others just seem to require either too many coincidences or too many stunning leaps of faith or ignoring logic, both of the above have some of that too. I don't really have a vibe on this either way and this isn't day 1, hopefully we'll get some more info as people trickle back in from reading ToM.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
- 03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
2903 Views
I see two avenues to discuss here
- 03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
1128 Views
I was thinking about number 1.
- 03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
1134 Views
Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
- 04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
1194 Views
I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
- 04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
1109 Views
O.......K..........
- 05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
1079 Views
Did Fist use his power last Night?
- 06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
1120 Views
It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
1137 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
1111 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
1152 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
1198 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
1219 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
1195 Views
Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
- 11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
1140 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
1214 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
1142 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
- 07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
1265 Views
I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
- 11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
1214 Views
Interesting.
- 11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
1140 Views
It's certainly possible.
- 11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
1163 Views
Now I'm curious
- 11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
1220 Views
Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
- 11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
1200 Views
Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
1222 Views
Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
- 04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
1274 Views
a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
- 04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
1191 Views
also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
- 04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
1130 Views
That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
- 04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
622 Views
You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain.
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
672 Views
*NM*
- 05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
672 Views
Hypocop? *NM*
- 03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
681 Views
Hobo - Innocent + read this before you HC if you haven't already
- 04/11/2010 08:25:26 PM
1113 Views
So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
- 10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
1080 Views
I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
- 10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
634 Views
Vote: No Lynch
- 13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
1150 Views
I am very much opposed to this idea
- 13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
1097 Views
Then offer an alternative
- 13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
1145 Views
Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
1062 Views
Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
- 14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
1134 Views
I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
- 14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
1058 Views
Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
- 14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
577 Views
LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
- 14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
1120 Views
Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
- 14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
1131 Views
Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
- 14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
1063 Views
After this whole argument I've had with FT...
- 13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
1089 Views
People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
1097 Views
Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
- 14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
1245 Views
Vote: Isaac
- 13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
1186 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
1095 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
- 14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
1166 Views
What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
1193 Views
Re: What was scummy?
- 14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
1120 Views
Extrmely thin
- 14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
1273 Views
Actually...
- 14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
1200 Views
Re: Actually...
- 14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
1139 Views
Did you guys just blitz me?
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1189 Views
- 14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
1189 Views
Your not hammered yet are you?
- 14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
1097 Views
I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
- 14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
1127 Views
I'm potentially alive on a technicality
- 15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
1004 Views
Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
- 15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
1128 Views
Sure
- 15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
1097 Views
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
- 15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
1188 Views
I think so.
- 15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
1063 Views
Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
1092 Views
Re: Also, I must confess...
- 15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
1203 Views
Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
1034 Views
Re: Yes, I would expect so.
- 15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
1161 Views
I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
- 15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
1135 Views
EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
674 Views
I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
- 15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
1006 Views
I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
- 15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
979 Views
Thanks, and a question too
- 15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
1053 Views
Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
- 15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
655 Views
Jeez, when it rains, it pours
- 15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
1006 Views
OK Isaac
- 15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
1057 Views
My Defense Posts
- 16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
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Defense A: The Fantastic Four
- 16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
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Defense B: The Numbers Game
- 16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
1106 Views
"What motive would a scummer have"?
- 16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
1096 Views
Without any further questions though?
- 16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
1177 Views
If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
- 17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
1072 Views
Defense C: The Intro Flavor
- 16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
1217 Views
Eh ...
- 16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
1058 Views
Re: Eh ...
- 17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
1100 Views
We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
1151 Views
Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
- 16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
1076 Views
Yes, that was it.
- 16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
1072 Views
Re: Yes, that was it.
- 17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
1088 Views
Not at all.
- 17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
1099 Views
Well, that's a borderline lie
- 17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
1162 Views
How do you figure?
- 17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
1055 Views
I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
- 17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
1051 Views
All right, fair enough.
- 17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
1172 Views
Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
1108 Views
- 17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
1108 Views
By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
- 17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
1073 Views
I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
- 17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
1156 Views
Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
1148 Views
Re: Slight EBWOP
- 17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
1060 Views
Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
- 17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
1139 Views
That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
1072 Views
Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
- 17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
1127 Views
Actually that sounds a good plan
- 17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
1065 Views
Glad to hear you agree with yourself
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1144 Views
- 17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
1144 Views
:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
- 17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
1080 Views
Ah yes, I noticed that as well
- 17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
1073 Views
I just caught that
- 17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
1205 Views
No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
1080 Views
Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
- 17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
1113 Views
I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
- 17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
1167 Views
Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
1155 Views
Re: Complete sidetrack.
- 17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
1038 Views
I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
1009 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
1023 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
1109 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
- 17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
1059 Views
In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
- 17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
1087 Views
What the balls?
- 17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
1114 Views
I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
1059 Views
Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
- 18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
1035 Views
Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
1244 Views
Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
- 18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
1040 Views
I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
- 18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
1039 Views
i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
1094 Views
Re: i don't know much about comics but
- 18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
980 Views
They're also Marvel characters
- 18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
1139 Views
LOL, duly noted
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
1140 Views
- 18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
1140 Views
Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
- 18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
1120 Views
Sure
- 18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
1101 Views
Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
- 21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
638 Views
Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
1068 Views
- 21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
1068 Views
OK, here's a question for beet:
- 21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
1081 Views
You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
- 21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
1059 Views
But we do get information
- 22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
1083 Views
<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
637 Views
Well, congrats
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
682 Views
*NM*
- 22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
682 Views
Since this is a first for both of us...
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
1056 Views
- 22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
1056 Views
When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
- 21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
1073 Views
Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
1025 Views
Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
- 22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
1133 Views
Isaac has been lynched!
- 22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
985 Views
I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
989 Views
- 22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
989 Views
I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
- 22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
683 Views
I might just mount your head on my wall
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1182 Views
.
- 22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
1182 Views
I consider myself an integral part in this group.
- 22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
1162 Views



