Yes, I suppose it is a strategy you might follow, it doesn't really sound like your style in this case but I don't have more than a weather forecaster accuracy in guessing your actions, clouds to the west means heightened chance of rain and all. You've good reason to avoid the usual suspects for kills, I'm not sure what the status of our semi-formal pact on night 1 copping/NKing is at the moment but on general principle I wouldn't have targeted you or DK, for instance, so that gives me a possible motive to strike out of the norm too, plus with the space mafia reference I'd have to acknowledge that if I'm willing to abandon a kill on night 1 for tactical reasons, picking a near random target could work too. That was a rather calculated move designed to make it seem an attack on me had failed though, so maybe not a fair example. I honestly don't know, when I reference scummer 'group think' I tend to envision 2-4 players acting in a logical fashion, it might be flawed logic but its going to be there, decisions made by committee and all, while often really crummy, tend to be logical consistent. This is highlighted to me because knowing marvel - and it looks like we're all relatively major characters - I can't look at the character table - which again since I compiled it I've studied a lot - without seeing options for roles, I would have to make Night Action decisions off of that, but if our scummers are a tad lazy on research and analysis or don't know marvel, both of which are entirely probable, they might not.



Yes, this is what gives me a headache, I'm sure I'm slanting every possible decision that make by my own logic and its making me say "They wouldn't do that, its a really bad idea" but that doesn't work when they have more info than me and realistically a lot of scummer factions are... well, not well coordinated IMHO.



Yes, and he didn't tell ?, which might just mean he was lazy, I mean if you trust the guy anyway might as well tell him, it could have been a loyalty trap but if it was it could have been executed better. I doubt the bus driver option by another player though, they would know who they'd switched and a BD isn't such a valuable role that exposure to let us know X was the NK target would be too risky. We already know we probably have a high role quotient, possibly 100%, I'm roled, obviously I had to have someway to determine Fox was unlikely as the killer so I doubt that's a surprise, of course I haven't been vanilla since game 5 so I doubt that requires a great leap of faith on anyone's part As for him hexing himself dead, well, yes, that's entirely possible, it's about a 1 in 100 chance he'd target the killer and get randomly hit himself but its just as probable as any other single outcome of using that, freaky coincidences do happen. And on the BD front, we have seen more and more roles in recent games with an unsurprising increase in role-effecting roles. That's kinda our problem here, the single most likely scenario is that ? is dirty and fist told him his role and they killed him for it, unfortunately they are so many other valid options that as things stand I just can't see dropping the hammer on him for it, 'most probable' and 'more likely than not' are simply not the same thing, you get 7 on 2 dice more than anything else but not more often than everything else. Ugh...

On the ? front, my current concern is that his apparent ignorance of the evil mason options simply sounds unbelievable, he's been one before and we've talked about it a lot of late, so I can't see how he could not know that, but even if it is feigned that doesn't mean guilty and my disbelief on that score may be unrealistic, so I can't see calling a lynch on the "You Lie, You Die" premise. I'd like to explore other avenues but we don't really have any on the table and won't get them while ? is the de facto lynchee for the day, so I'm inclined to sideline him for the time being and start squeezing other players, thoughts? leads?