It's also worth noting that given enough time and skill a person can compile a fake set of reasons for their actions, but let me cite some evidence that my thinking was as I said it was regaridng WF/SK at the time:
This is the text of a conversation Fox and I had early in the WF accusation phase yesterday, some bolding by me for empahasis, red text are commentary:
Me
Let me cite an example. In a game this size our norm has been for there to be an extra NK in play, partial or total, controlled by the scummer faction, the town, or a third party. Rarely in a game this size do we have a single hitter, particularly if we're role heavy and initial indicators is that we are (to clarify, if vanillas don't make up 50% of the crew, you're technically role heavy, though in-house I'd say more like iff 5 out of our 13 players aren't vanilla we are role heavy)
Now, let's say I have concluded we probably have some other NK in play and I think its matched to characters and not in SKrull hands, and I look at your list: Keep in mind I'm talking to someone who knows my character and vice-versa and hinting at things
The Human Torch
The Hulk
Magneto
The Punisher
The Punisher stands out as an archetype for the vig role, and MAgneto's a arch-villain and the Hulk is a story all his own. If I thought we had a extra NK in play, a vig scenario for the Punisher would be fairly logical. But let's say I knew you were the Human Torch and could scratch you off that list and there would be a need then to find someone else who might make a logical holder of a NK. Keeping to the Fantastic 4 flavor, lets say someone was the Invisible Woman, she'd be a pretty obvious choice for stealthy watcher, doesn't mean she would be,pointing out watcher option to Fox for Hobo, also a tangential request to Hobo to say yes or no but it would be weird to bypass that character for the role, or also on the Fan 4 option, the notorious all seeing character "The Watcher" would be a logical watcher choice. Now of course, if you were the Punisher and a vig it wouldn't mean we don't have a SK but it would be less likely, but if I had info indicating you were not, because you were the torch or squirrel girl or whatever, logically I'd scratch you off the NK-likely list if I were working under the assumption that roles correlate to characters, an assumptyion that appears to be true. Scanning down the list, I don't recognize everyone, but nobody else had any ambiguously aligned (not particularly heroes) homicidal sorts, except for your Magneto and Yuna's LEx Luthor - who of course is not a Marvel Character. I'm sure you get my point, lacking much other evidence, we take what we do know and use it, it could easily be wrong but at least its not random. From what I know, the most obvious third party NK would be WF, nobody else really fits the bill. That doesn't mean he is one, and id doesn't mean we have a SK, or even another NK, on the table, but previous games have featured them a lot for parallel circumstances and thus the odds favor it. But that's the whole problem of stats, something either is or isn't, regardless of the probabilities (except in quantum mechanics) a coin will either land head or tails, its not random, its still fair to say it's 50/50 on a given flip and to act accordingly. WF had a list that screamed unlikely or third party, so I pointed it out, and he claimed something I find very unlikely, which is a classic response for a scummer in cases like this, again, doesn't mean he is but the odds are pretty strong, and we've got nothing else right now.
Fox
But my point here is more that I don't think we should really judge him based off his character but rather the way he acted when confronted. Judging directly from that, I'd say he's more innocent than guilty. I do get your point about the fantastic 4 and all that stuff though. With nothing else to go off of, I'll back you up but I won't feel good about it.
Now something key, in hindsight Hobo probably just missed it, but when I basically blatantly said I thought Hobo was a watcher, I figured if he wasn't, he would say so, he'd post some comment indicating that he was not, and he read the thread because he replied to later bits of the thread, Fox had caught it, so I assume he had, since he moved on WF in those comments. Sucks, cross-communication on day 1 is a bitch, trust me I've done it a lot, but, it is what it is. It might have gotten a bit obvious if Hobo had been all like "Yes, I also like this Fan 4 analogy, but I don't think Invisible girl is a likely watcher candidate" so I decided he was trying to avoid giving anything away when I'd likely assume as much or suspected me of being scum and didn't want to hand me an axe, etc.
This is the text of a conversation Fox and I had early in the WF accusation phase yesterday, some bolding by me for empahasis, red text are commentary:
Me
Let me cite an example. In a game this size our norm has been for there to be an extra NK in play, partial or total, controlled by the scummer faction, the town, or a third party. Rarely in a game this size do we have a single hitter, particularly if we're role heavy and initial indicators is that we are (to clarify, if vanillas don't make up 50% of the crew, you're technically role heavy, though in-house I'd say more like iff 5 out of our 13 players aren't vanilla we are role heavy)
Now, let's say I have concluded we probably have some other NK in play and I think its matched to characters and not in SKrull hands, and I look at your list: Keep in mind I'm talking to someone who knows my character and vice-versa and hinting at things
The Human Torch
The Hulk
Magneto
The Punisher
The Punisher stands out as an archetype for the vig role, and MAgneto's a arch-villain and the Hulk is a story all his own. If I thought we had a extra NK in play, a vig scenario for the Punisher would be fairly logical. But let's say I knew you were the Human Torch and could scratch you off that list and there would be a need then to find someone else who might make a logical holder of a NK. Keeping to the Fantastic 4 flavor, lets say someone was the Invisible Woman, she'd be a pretty obvious choice for stealthy watcher, doesn't mean she would be,pointing out watcher option to Fox for Hobo, also a tangential request to Hobo to say yes or no but it would be weird to bypass that character for the role, or also on the Fan 4 option, the notorious all seeing character "The Watcher" would be a logical watcher choice. Now of course, if you were the Punisher and a vig it wouldn't mean we don't have a SK but it would be less likely, but if I had info indicating you were not, because you were the torch or squirrel girl or whatever, logically I'd scratch you off the NK-likely list if I were working under the assumption that roles correlate to characters, an assumptyion that appears to be true. Scanning down the list, I don't recognize everyone, but nobody else had any ambiguously aligned (not particularly heroes) homicidal sorts, except for your Magneto and Yuna's LEx Luthor - who of course is not a Marvel Character. I'm sure you get my point, lacking much other evidence, we take what we do know and use it, it could easily be wrong but at least its not random. From what I know, the most obvious third party NK would be WF, nobody else really fits the bill. That doesn't mean he is one, and id doesn't mean we have a SK, or even another NK, on the table, but previous games have featured them a lot for parallel circumstances and thus the odds favor it. But that's the whole problem of stats, something either is or isn't, regardless of the probabilities (except in quantum mechanics) a coin will either land head or tails, its not random, its still fair to say it's 50/50 on a given flip and to act accordingly. WF had a list that screamed unlikely or third party, so I pointed it out, and he claimed something I find very unlikely, which is a classic response for a scummer in cases like this, again, doesn't mean he is but the odds are pretty strong, and we've got nothing else right now.
Fox
But my point here is more that I don't think we should really judge him based off his character but rather the way he acted when confronted. Judging directly from that, I'd say he's more innocent than guilty. I do get your point about the fantastic 4 and all that stuff though. With nothing else to go off of, I'll back you up but I won't feel good about it.
Now something key, in hindsight Hobo probably just missed it, but when I basically blatantly said I thought Hobo was a watcher, I figured if he wasn't, he would say so, he'd post some comment indicating that he was not, and he read the thread because he replied to later bits of the thread, Fox had caught it, so I assume he had, since he moved on WF in those comments. Sucks, cross-communication on day 1 is a bitch, trust me I've done it a lot, but, it is what it is. It might have gotten a bit obvious if Hobo had been all like "Yes, I also like this Fan 4 analogy, but I don't think Invisible girl is a likely watcher candidate" so I decided he was trying to avoid giving anything away when I'd likely assume as much or suspected me of being scum and didn't want to hand me an axe, etc.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 19: Superlative Crisis! ISSUE TWO: BLACK MAGIC- WHOA, MAN!
03/11/2010 04:59:59 AM
- 2548 Views
I see two avenues to discuss here
03/11/2010 11:41:14 AM
- 769 Views
I was thinking about number 1.
03/11/2010 10:00:57 PM
- 786 Views
Regarding 2, and let me suggets a 3
04/11/2010 02:30:41 AM
- 842 Views
I, personally, agree with Isaac so here goes.
04/11/2010 11:33:07 PM
- 765 Views
O.......K..........
05/11/2010 11:43:14 PM
- 739 Views
Did Fist use his power last Night?
06/11/2010 03:41:05 AM
- 777 Views
It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 04:53:19 AM
- 762 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 05:30:00 PM
- 748 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
06/11/2010 07:15:11 PM
- 805 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 08:18:16 AM
- 854 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 03:38:37 PM
- 803 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:42:10 PM
- 841 Views
Huh, well Fox straight up told us his Mason group was a 3rd Fraction on Night 1
11/11/2010 12:55:50 AM
- 795 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 06:16:29 PM
- 852 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 07:16:20 PM
- 793 Views
Re: It's one of three plausible explanations for his death
07/11/2010 09:29:12 PM
- 870 Views
I am about 95% sure that WF targeted me last Night.
11/11/2010 01:04:34 AM
- 758 Views
Interesting.
11/11/2010 02:25:07 AM
- 821 Views
It's certainly possible.
11/11/2010 02:39:00 AM
- 811 Views
Now I'm curious
11/11/2010 03:33:46 AM
- 845 Views
Presumably because I'm not trying to get her lynched.
11/11/2010 03:53:54 AM
- 854 Views
Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 05:41:04 AM
- 846 Views
Re: Yeah, I'm going with that #3 there.
04/11/2010 04:18:17 PM
- 859 Views
a scummer got caught on day one in the tower game
04/11/2010 06:42:15 PM
- 827 Views
also there was that time someone said they saw a black light instead of white
04/11/2010 07:52:41 PM
- 823 Views
That was Hobo in DK's crossover game. *NM*
04/11/2010 08:16:07 PM
- 455 Views
You know we could just forget about that. I wouldn't complain. *NM*
05/11/2010 08:35:03 PM
- 495 Views
Hypocop? *NM*
03/11/2010 03:20:17 PM
- 500 Views
So help me I will spoil the entirety of ToM, people! (not just yet, though)
10/11/2010 02:51:46 AM
- 724 Views
I'm pretty sure if you do, you'll be lynched. *NM*
10/11/2010 09:19:43 PM
- 468 Views
Vote: No Lynch
13/11/2010 12:24:43 AM
- 826 Views
I am very much opposed to this idea
13/11/2010 02:04:27 PM
- 741 Views
Then offer an alternative
13/11/2010 11:10:42 PM
- 786 Views
Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:03:35 AM
- 723 Views
Re: Why is an inactive likely to be a townie?
14/11/2010 04:21:12 AM
- 820 Views
I had no RBIRL because my computer died.
14/11/2010 06:52:56 AM
- 707 Views
Ah, I see you did unvote. Very well. I still got my eye on you. *NM*
14/11/2010 06:55:30 AM
- 415 Views
LOL - I guess this is also my informal defense
14/11/2010 08:52:56 AM
- 792 Views
Saying it's not out-of-character to be scummy doesn't make you any less scummy.
14/11/2010 04:33:15 PM
- 823 Views
Watch the difference between what he says and what he is accused of.
14/11/2010 07:08:08 PM
- 685 Views
After this whole argument I've had with FT...
13/11/2010 11:42:32 PM
- 758 Views
People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 03:43:14 AM
- 726 Views
Re: People who vote for totally random lynches don't deserve to win
14/11/2010 02:23:04 PM
- 897 Views
Vote: Isaac
13/11/2010 11:58:56 PM
- 843 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 03:02:15 AM
- 742 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac
14/11/2010 04:02:30 AM
- 820 Views
What was scummy?
14/11/2010 04:10:12 AM
- 859 Views
Re: What was scummy?
14/11/2010 05:41:44 AM
- 778 Views
Extrmely thin
14/11/2010 06:05:32 AM
- 929 Views
Actually...
14/11/2010 06:55:02 AM
- 830 Views
Re: Actually...
14/11/2010 07:44:33 AM
- 791 Views
Did you guys just blitz me?
14/11/2010 11:35:58 PM
- 820 Views
Your not hammered yet are you?
14/11/2010 11:46:29 PM
- 752 Views
I think I might be, can never be sure what votes are worth in a heavy role game
14/11/2010 11:50:51 PM
- 775 Views
I'm potentially alive on a technicality
15/11/2010 12:02:36 AM
- 674 Views
Why don't you go ahead and claim then?
15/11/2010 12:11:03 AM
- 762 Views
Sure
15/11/2010 12:34:34 AM
- 730 Views
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
15/11/2010 02:13:23 AM
- 838 Views
I think so.
15/11/2010 01:25:46 AM
- 739 Views
Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:32:44 AM
- 757 Views
Re: Also, I must confess...
15/11/2010 01:58:26 AM
- 884 Views
Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:22:06 AM
- 697 Views
Re: Yes, I would expect so.
15/11/2010 02:35:49 AM
- 802 Views
I'm unvoting only if the defence is really foolproof, since now no-one can hammer without instantly
15/11/2010 07:18:05 AM
- 772 Views
EBWOP - The "only" in the title is rebundant, it was part of different title I abandoned. *NM*
15/11/2010 07:19:46 AM
- 487 Views
I guess the first title stands afterall I won't automatically unvote just because none should hammer
15/11/2010 08:19:00 AM
- 687 Views
I'll try to help Isaac out a bit here.
15/11/2010 01:11:11 PM
- 648 Views
Thanks, and a question too
15/11/2010 01:30:17 PM
- 691 Views
Well, I'll unvote if the third mason comes forward too. *NM*
15/11/2010 03:30:36 PM
- 455 Views
Jeez, when it rains, it pours
15/11/2010 10:34:54 PM
- 661 Views
OK Isaac
15/11/2010 11:14:45 PM
- 712 Views
My Defense Posts
16/11/2010 04:16:41 AM
- 730 Views
Defense A: The Fantastic Four
16/11/2010 04:31:11 AM
- 752 Views
Some supporting evidence
16/11/2010 05:29:14 AM
- 749 Views
Defense B: The Numbers Game
16/11/2010 04:36:59 AM
- 757 Views
"What motive would a scummer have"?
16/11/2010 05:56:04 PM
- 730 Views
Without any further questions though?
16/11/2010 11:51:42 PM
- 784 Views
If you see an avalanche coming, you hop on board (NOT a metaphor).
17/11/2010 12:12:31 AM
- 725 Views
Defense C: The Intro Flavor
16/11/2010 04:41:31 AM
- 870 Views
Eh ...
16/11/2010 10:00:21 PM
- 708 Views
Re: Eh ...
17/11/2010 02:33:27 AM
- 778 Views
We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 07:01:22 AM
- 816 Views
Re: We'll take a look at that in turn, but first...
16/11/2010 01:40:21 PM
- 711 Views
Yes, that was it.
16/11/2010 09:05:04 PM
- 742 Views
Re: Yes, that was it.
17/11/2010 02:55:58 AM
- 760 Views
Not at all.
17/11/2010 03:04:50 AM
- 775 Views
Well, that's a borderline lie
17/11/2010 04:29:47 AM
- 818 Views
How do you figure?
17/11/2010 05:46:37 AM
- 722 Views
I'd say its pretty pertinent to my defense
17/11/2010 06:49:20 AM
- 709 Views
All right, fair enough.
17/11/2010 07:19:37 AM
- 835 Views
Thanks for whakcing me before going to bed
17/11/2010 07:39:58 AM
- 735 Views
By the way, I'd appreciate if no one had hammer till FT has a chance to reply and vice-versa
17/11/2010 07:46:18 AM
- 724 Views
I have evidence in favor of and yet against F-T's claim. Take it as you will.
17/11/2010 07:18:35 PM
- 813 Views
Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:20:58 PM
- 809 Views
Re: Slight EBWOP
17/11/2010 07:24:34 PM
- 708 Views
Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense
17/11/2010 07:22:59 PM
- 757 Views
That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 07:26:34 PM
- 731 Views
Re: That's fair. Sanity can actually be called into question now.
17/11/2010 08:01:20 PM
- 800 Views
Actually that sounds a good plan
17/11/2010 08:06:50 PM
- 714 Views
Glad to hear you agree with yourself
17/11/2010 08:14:42 PM
- 823 Views
:/ Wanna mention this before I forget. Little niggling that's been bugging me.
17/11/2010 03:03:27 AM
- 735 Views
Ah yes, I noticed that as well
17/11/2010 04:08:15 AM
- 730 Views
I just caught that
17/11/2010 04:53:16 AM
- 845 Views
No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:29:36 AM
- 759 Views
Re: No, I don't mean Cop.
17/11/2010 05:34:46 AM
- 769 Views
I trust him because of the way he's been acting.
17/11/2010 06:30:26 PM
- 813 Views
Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:28:31 PM
- 832 Views
Re: Complete sidetrack.
17/11/2010 07:33:51 PM
- 717 Views
I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 05:38:53 AM
- 670 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:04:08 AM
- 700 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:25:05 AM
- 762 Views
Re: I can't seem to find the post about that arrangement we had, incidentally.
17/11/2010 06:50:04 AM
- 715 Views
In the interests of honesty, now would probably be a good time to mention ...
17/11/2010 09:22:14 PM
- 753 Views
What the balls?
17/11/2010 09:52:04 PM
- 753 Views
I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 02:02:03 PM
- 722 Views
Re: I still only see one way for this day to end
18/11/2010 03:18:50 PM
- 694 Views
Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 05:16:28 PM
- 890 Views
Re: Its probably the blind mason loyalty thing, but I'm inclined to trust Isaac.
18/11/2010 06:00:06 PM
- 738 Views
I'd also like to point out that we know nothing about you
18/11/2010 03:37:08 PM
- 706 Views
i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:45:10 PM
- 756 Views
Re: i don't know much about comics but
18/11/2010 05:49:54 PM
- 699 Views
They're also Marvel characters
18/11/2010 06:30:11 PM
- 756 Views
LOL, duly noted
18/11/2010 06:48:08 PM
- 775 Views
Beast is really surprisingly un-beastly.
18/11/2010 06:28:15 PM
- 793 Views
Sure
18/11/2010 06:42:01 PM
- 770 Views
Alright, to hell with this. Let's test F-T's sanity. Vote: Isaac *NM*
21/11/2010 08:29:53 PM
- 484 Views
Ah, the frustration vote, normally my best friend
21/11/2010 09:58:18 PM
- 744 Views
OK, here's a question for beet:
21/11/2010 10:37:08 PM
- 731 Views
You're not suggesting we lynch F-T instead of Isaac, are you?
21/11/2010 11:17:19 PM
- 738 Views
But we do get information
22/11/2010 12:17:20 AM
- 758 Views
<-- Btw, first time I got the hammer vote. My life is now complete. *NM*
22/11/2010 12:20:53 AM
- 461 Views
Well, congrats *NM*
22/11/2010 12:32:34 AM
- 490 Views
Since this is a first for both of us...
22/11/2010 12:35:29 AM
- 736 Views
When someone dies, you find out their role. "Psycho Cop" is a distinct role.
21/11/2010 11:22:50 PM
- 742 Views
Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:00:31 AM
- 703 Views
Re: Isaac wonders how he could be lynched without scum involvement...
22/11/2010 12:21:01 AM
- 815 Views
Isaac has been lynched!
22/11/2010 03:10:01 AM
- 648 Views
I can't help but feel a silver bullet would have been appropriate
22/11/2010 04:11:13 AM
- 627 Views
I find that astounding, considering the level of suspicion generally laid upon you *NM*
22/11/2010 04:16:04 AM
- 526 Views
I might just mount your head on my wall .
22/11/2010 05:09:45 AM
- 821 Views
I consider myself an integral part in this group.
22/11/2010 05:27:12 AM
- 811 Views